To give a sense of how the greater political world is viewing Jim Douglas’s retirement, Cook’s Political Report just upgraded Vermont’s gubernatorial race from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up” status yesterday.
The Democratic Governor’s Association confirmed last week that they will place Vermont among their top-tier targets, along with states like Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota and California (and possibly Rhode Island, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona).
There’s more to be said about the still-developing situation with Auditor and potential party-switcher Joe Lieberman Tom Salmon, particularly about the mythology that his conflict with the Democratic base that busted their butts to get him into office in the first place is primarily about him being too “moderate” (for one thing, it’s first and foremost about his constant attempts to sabotage his own Party’s legislative leadership – but for another, he’s not exactly “moderate” after all… seriously, where on the liberal-moderate-conservative spectrum does handing over Vermont ski areas to the most unstable and corrupt industry in the nation – casino gambling – fall? Answer: it’s so far off the spectrum, it’s in another dimension).
But that’s for another diary. This one is for entertaining musings. Here’s a scenario for you…
Imagine for a moment that Salmon does become a Republican. Imagine then that he opts not to run for Governor, but to try to play the power of incumbency and runs instead for re-election as Auditor.
Now imagine Dubie runs for the top spot and loses, while the scramble for the open Lieutenant Governor’s office also ends in a Democratic victory. But the incumbent auditor ekes by and retains his position.
And Tom Salmon Jr, as the only remaining GOP statewide officeholder, becomes the functional head of the Vermont Republican Party in 2010.
How does that mess with your head, huh? Am I saying that’s the plan, here? No way, man – I aint sayin’ nuthin. But what makes this scenario so entertaining is that it… could… actually… happen.
Likely? Nah. But still…
(UPDATE:
Yesterday Salmon spoke at Sen. Bill Doyle’s class on
>Vermont politics at Johnson State. Among other things
he said:
(1) He has not decided which statewide office he will
seek;
(2) He has not decided which party he will run in;
(3) Vermont Yankee must be re-licensed. – promoted by odum)
UPDATE 2 From a source close to Salmon: “The leading source of (the party-switching rumor) is clearly some Republican operatives who are trying to move Dubie off the dime… I can confirm that no one has a legitimate basis for these rumors.” Interesting – this merits continued watching, especially given Salmon’s comments in Doyle’s class. /update
UPDATE 3 The Rutland Herald has a piece about this. –julie.
He’s been dropping hints for a while, and has certainly been doing all he can to alienate many of the same people who worked so hard during his historic recount to get him where he is today, but is Auditor Tom Salmon Jr. planning to drop the Democratic Party and run for Governor as a Republican (most likely going up against popular Lieutenant Governor and presumed Douglas heir apparent Brian Dubie)?
That’s the rumor – one I’m told by a reliable source is a “90%,” – all but confirmed (but again – not yet confirmed… apply grain of salt).
Currently, Salmon has had Democratic consultants Jake Perkinson and Selene Hofer-Shall working on his re-election. One assumes he would lose their assistance if he makes the move.
We’ll see. Hopefully we can get more on this soon. It’ll be refreshing to see some truth-in-advertising on his ballot line, if this turns out to be true, and not just a wacky rumor. It could also simply be a trial balloon being floated among insiders. Time will tell.
Quick Update: More than one source close to the Salmon campaign say this is “nuts,” and that is a direct quote… others say its for real. Time to let the real reporters have at it, I suppose.
From the Racine campaign:
MONTPELIER, VT-Sen. Doug Racine announced today that he has hired a Field Director for his gubernatorial campaign. Amy Shollenberger, 38, of Montpelier will head up this effort.
[…] Shollenberger has more than ten years of grassroots organizing, policy, and political issue campaign experience, including work as a press secretary and legislative assistant for a member of the U.S. House of Representatives and as a senior policy analyst for Public Citizen’s Critical Mass Energy and Environment Program. In Vermont, she worked for the Lamoille Valley Tobacco Task Force and the Chittenden County Domestic Violence Task Force, and she served as Rural Vermont’s director, where she developed campaigns to increase farmers’ ability to sell products directly to consumers.
“I am excited to be working for Doug,” Shollenberger noted, “He is very strong on issues that I care about, and he is committed to making government work for the people of Vermont to improve opportunities for Vermont families…
Shollenberger is the third hiring for the Racine for Governor Campaign. Shollenberger joins Sam Winship of Rutland and Mark Larson of Burlington.
This is a major hire. Shollenberger has one of the best reputations in the state for organizing. More than that, though, she is held in high regard by the Ag crowd, many enviros, and members of the Progressive Party. She also has regional clout in more rural areas, such as the Northeast Kingdom, where Racine is weaker.
Smart, smart, smart.
So how's this really going to shake out?
First off on the GOP side of things. First, it should be mentioned that some of these folks whose names are floating are no doubt being talked about, rather than talking about running themselves. And if Dubie decides to go for the top spot, he likely clears the field of high powered candidates. If he doesn't, you're going see a big ol' primary. In fact, anybody but Dubie would need a primary in order to raise their statewide profile in the face of a Democratic primary which will be garnering a tremendous amount of press and public interest, giving the winner a big leg up in name recognition and interest. This isn't to say that Dubie won't draw a challenger, but it'll likely be a fringe one – whether that's a fairly run-of-the-mill fringer like a Wendy Wilton or a true lost-in-the-supermarketer like Brian Pearl is an unknown.
That leaves a crowd for Lieutenant Governor – but that crowd could be whittled down if the current AG or Auditor open up their spots to move up the food chain.
Sorrel perennially likes to mess with people's heads about running for Governor. If he's serious, now is the time obviously, but he probably isn't. The fact is that there are already two candidates in the race who have raised well into 6 figures, have staff on the ground, and have tied up most of the (limited) big contributors in Vermont. Vermont politicians do have a history of being a little divorced from electoral reality, but this most recent crop is a bit more sensible, and many will have an understanding of the tremendous uphill climb they'd be looking at. Sure, Shumlin will jump in – but he was going to anyway. The Governor's announcement just gives him a convenient entree.
Smith could of course create a lot of buzz if he jumped in, but translating that buzz into campaign cash could be problematic. Most of the big givers have chosen a horse, and the available money he could leverage through his role in marriage equality is likely already lined up behind Shumlin.
The long and the short is; when the dust settles, the lists will be large, but nothing like what's being talked about.
How does this sea change effect those already in? That depends. Markowitz has been trying to replicate the Obama effect of running less on issues than on image – an image of being above the partisan fray. With Douglas gone, that's going to be a less meaningful vibe to inhabit, although it will only take a minor bit of tweaking to keep it relevant.
The electability argument could take a dramatic turn, however, if Dubie is the Republican, as Racine can remind voters that he is the only Democrat who has ever beaten Dubie. Of course, the reply will be that it was a long time ago and Dubie is a different candidate now – but obviously, Racine is as well.
You have to figure that, right now, the Dubie scenario is most likely. Insiders suggest he'd like the job, he's let his name be floated in the media, and he's already got the blessing of Douglas.
X-factors in all this? Matt Dunne seems increasingly likely to run for something. He's got a statewide network of supporters, but again – his problem will be closing the money gap. He may well opt for lower-hanging fruit. The Progs sound increasingly unlikely to get into the top-spot mess, and will be a lot more likely to run for Lieutenant Governor.
But one could also imagine either Salmon or Illuzzi jumping into the race as an independent. Neither would have a chance at the top spot – Illuzzi's past legal problems would be a major liability, and Salmon is simply too ridiculous, and has managed to infuriate most of the people who helped get him into office in the first place, apparently deciding that the only one he really needs to impress is Harlan Sylvester.
Whew.
At this point, one could just write/muse/speculate forever about the likely combinations and dynamics. Probably time to just put down the laptop and walk away. In any event, what looks like the wild west now will certainly look a lot calmer soon, and in a matter of weeks, we should have a clearer – and tamer – sense of what 2010 will hold.
Stock up on popcorn.
Via the House of LeMay:
With the announcement of Governor Jim Douglas's decision not to run for re-election next year, the political eyes of Vermont are averted to the state's Northeast Queendom and the political future of Beaver Pond mayor, Bibs Fisk.
What is spurring this anticipated step-up for Fisk is her recent change in appearance (left). It appears she's been influenced by another woman who was once a small town mayor, elected her state's governor, and has since gone on to national recognition.
When asked his opinion on the possibility of Fisk replacing his boss, administration secretary Neil Lunderville… said, “Gov. Douglas has not told me my opinion yet.”
[…] The League of Drag Queen Voters has not issued a statement of support for any candidate.
Unclear which Party's ballot Fisk would appear on. Hopefully all of them.
From the Democratic Governor’s Association:
The Democratic Governors Association is moving Vermont into its top tier of targeted 2010 pickup races, as Governor Jim Douglas announced his retirement today.
[…] “The Democratic candidates running for this open seat have long records of public service to the people of Vermont,” (DGA Executive Director Nathan) Daschle said. “With such strong leaders in this race, we have an excellent opportunity to win back Vermont’s governorship. As a top-tier pickup opportunity for our organization, we are committed to ensuring that a Democrat wins this race in 2010. Our political program will dedicate the same attention and day-to-day involvement that other top-tier states such as Florida and California receive.”
This is no small potatoes. The DGA is bringing in more money than it ever has, raising $11.6 million in the first half of 2009. The urgency and high level of funding is not just simply the Bush-backlash zeitgeist, it reflects the reality that Governors elected in 2010 will be overseeing the all-important redistricting process. That’s not an issue at the federal level in Vermont, given our at-large seat, but it makes all the difference for the composition of the state legislature. Simply put, this is the worst cycle imaginable for an entrenched incumbent Governor to opt out, at least as far as his or her party is concerned.
With the promise of financial support from national Dems (the kind of support lacking in past contests), the argument will be made that our primary is not helpful, given that it will lock up the DGA money until September. The fact is, though, that it empowers a vigorous primary as it promises significant support in the key stretch for whichever Democrat gets the nod, effectively nullifying one of the most significant arguments against a contested primary (that they won’t have money left over to beat the Republican). Combined with our 1000 Vermonters for Change Facebook project, which will be primed to deliver $100,000 to the primary winner, the Democratic candidate should be in a strong financial position for the General Election.
[UPDATE 2, 11:15 a.m. Governor Jim Douglas has in fact announced that he will not be seeking re-election in 2010. Further, he declared that he had no plans to run for any federal or statewide office, shutting down speculation regarding potential presidential, vice-presidential, or congressional ambitions. — NanuqFC]
[UPDATE – ed.] Governor Jim Douglas will announce at 11:00 this morning that he will NOT be running for re-election in 2010.
More as it becomes available. If true, it certainly raises the question of other, federal political ambitions.
Important to note that this is not a game of media telephone going on – this is for real. Near as can be told, all the media sources making the announcement (including GMD) did so independently, from their own sources. That puts this well beyond the rumor category.
(NOTE: Fairness announcement – Despite the time stamp, Totten at Blurt did come up with this first by a few minutes…. sometimes GMD timestamps are a little screwy.)
Nah, we don’t know nuthin. Republicans rarely leak us any good gossip. Yes, upon announcement of a big hush-hush mystery press conference from our Chief Executive planned for this morning, the speculation that cropped up immediately was that Douglas was leaving his job for some sort of post in the Obama Administration, but that notion was apparently dismissed quickly.
Is he just announcing his re-election bid for Governor? Mmmmnnnyeah, could be wabbit, but for Republican gossip, its not a bad idea to check in with Republicans. Here’s what the Republican website (oh…sorry…“non-partisan”… Wa-hahahaha!… thats a good one…. gets me every time…) Vermont Tiger has to say:
Will Governor Douglas be leaving Montpelier for Washington D.C.?
Short answer: No.
Still … the news will be big and its political reverberations, lasting.
But that is as far out on this limb as we are willing to go.
So, do they know what’s up? That’s certainly the message they’re trying to send. So let’s take them at their… implication, at any rate. “Big” news? “Reverberations?” And on the matter of going to DC, no is only the “short answer?”
Seems like the message being sent by the Republican Tiger is that Mr. Douglas may be running for US House or Senate.
But maybe they don’t know what they’re talking about and Douglas is going to announce something completely different. My theory after the flip…