Vermont AD (After Douglas): It’s a Mad House! A Maaad House!

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Are you "considering your options" vis a vis running for Governor? C'mon – its all the rage…
If you add up the folks already in with the folks "considering their options," its already quite a list. Throw in behind-the-scenes speculation on who might get in and you have a crowd. And then there are the "What If's" – such as what if Brian Dubie runs, opening up the Lieutenant Governor position? Or if Tom Salmon runs opening up the Auditor's race? Or Attorney General?
Anyway, if you look at all the names floated in the media by the Freeps, the VT Press Bureau, VPR and 7 Days (and then add in other mutterings) the list is now officially insane. You've already got Markowitz, Racine and Bartlett on the Dem side. Now Shap Smith, Matt Dunne and Peter Shumlin are actively considering it. There's also new speculation about Bill Sorrell – and of course, Salmon Jr, who is only a Democrat on paper (although he's threatening to change that… might as well, as his days on the Dem ballot line for any office are likely becoming numbered). 
For Repubs, you're already hearing Dubie (of course), Martha Rainville (which likely means those earlier rumors we reported about her considering another run against Peter Welch were maybe not so crazy after all…) and Randy Brock, but also Kevin Mullin, Walt Freed and John Bloomer.
But wait, there's so much more…
In the event of a Dubie run, being reported as possibilities for Lite Gov are Phil Scott and Peg Flory (who had been rumored to be looking at SoS until the floodgates opened), and as we've reported here a couple times in the past (one of those rumors we supposedly made up) – Barre mayor and pie-thrower-scourge Thom Lauzon. Rob Roper has also indicated he's considering a run for something, and Pat MacDonald has reportedly been coy about her plans as well. Then you've got Progressive David Zuckerman talking about a statewide run, although he's going to have to dial down the invective a bit to be viable. 
But there could be more, easily. Jim Condos has been eyeing Secretary of State, but he'd considered Lieutenant Governor last cycle – who's to say he won't reconsider? And Floyd Nease hasn't officially closed the door. Neither has Ed Flanagan, but that's clearly only a matter of time. And then there's Tim Palmer of Burlington who has told friends he's interested.
But behind the scenes you also hear insiders speculate about folks like Vince Illuzzi, Tom Torti, Mary Powell, and – of course – Anthony Pollina.
If you're keeping count, I've named 12 Democrats, 14 Republicans and 2 Progressives who are either in the rumor mill, actively running, or something in between – all for 2 statewide offices.
 
It's too early to make any sense of such a mosh pit at this point, but we can at least try to dial in a little reality.

So how's this really going to shake out?

First off on the GOP side of things. First, it should be mentioned that some of these folks whose names are floating are no doubt being talked about, rather than talking about running themselves.  And if Dubie decides to go for the top spot, he likely clears the field of high powered candidates. If he doesn't, you're going see a big ol' primary. In fact, anybody but Dubie would need a primary in order to raise their statewide profile in the face of a Democratic primary which will be garnering a tremendous amount of press and public interest, giving the winner a big leg up in name recognition and interest. This isn't to say that Dubie won't draw a challenger, but it'll likely be a fringe one – whether that's a fairly run-of-the-mill fringer like a Wendy Wilton or a true lost-in-the-supermarketer like Brian Pearl is an unknown.

That leaves a crowd for Lieutenant Governor – but that crowd could be whittled down if the current AG or Auditor open up their spots to move up the food chain.

Sorrel perennially likes to mess with people's heads about running for Governor. If he's serious, now is the time obviously, but he probably isn't. The fact is that there are already two candidates in the race who have raised well into 6 figures, have staff on the ground, and have tied up most of the (limited) big contributors in Vermont. Vermont politicians do have a history of being a little divorced from electoral reality, but this most recent crop is a bit more sensible, and many will have an understanding of the tremendous uphill climb they'd be looking at. Sure, Shumlin will jump in – but he was going to anyway. The Governor's announcement just gives him a convenient entree.

Smith could of course create a lot of buzz if he jumped in, but translating that buzz into campaign cash could be problematic. Most of the big givers have chosen a horse, and the available money he could leverage through his role in marriage equality is likely already lined up behind Shumlin.

The long and the short is; when the dust settles, the lists will be large, but nothing like what's being talked about.

How does this sea change effect those already in? That depends. Markowitz has been trying to replicate the Obama effect of running less on issues than on image – an image of being above the partisan fray. With Douglas gone, that's going to be a less meaningful vibe to inhabit, although it will only take a minor bit of tweaking to keep it relevant.

The electability argument could take a dramatic turn, however, if Dubie is the Republican, as Racine can remind voters that he is the only Democrat who has ever beaten Dubie. Of course, the reply will be that it was a long time ago and Dubie is a different candidate now – but obviously, Racine is as well.

You have to figure that, right now, the Dubie scenario is most likely. Insiders suggest he'd like the job, he's let his name be floated in the media, and he's already got the blessing of Douglas.

X-factors in all this? Matt Dunne seems increasingly likely to run for something. He's got a statewide network of supporters, but again – his problem will be closing the money gap. He may well opt for lower-hanging fruit. The Progs sound increasingly unlikely to get into the top-spot mess, and will be a lot more likely to run for Lieutenant Governor. 

But one could also imagine either Salmon or Illuzzi jumping into the race as an independent. Neither would have a chance at the top spot – Illuzzi's past legal problems would be a major liability, and Salmon is simply too ridiculous, and has managed to infuriate most of the people who helped get him into office in the first place, apparently deciding that the only one he really needs to impress is Harlan Sylvester. 

Whew.

At this point, one could just write/muse/speculate forever about the likely combinations and dynamics. Probably time to just put down the laptop and walk away. In any event, what looks like the wild west now will certainly look a lot calmer soon, and in a matter of weeks, we should have a clearer – and tamer – sense of what 2010 will hold.

Stock up on popcorn. 

4 thoughts on “Vermont AD (After Douglas): It’s a Mad House! A Maaad House!”

  2. Demmings have periodic political population booms and then disperse in all directions seeking offices that their natural habitat cannot provide. It is unknown why demming populations fluctuate with such variance roughly every four years, before plummeting to near extinction.There is now however some evidence to suggest that an incumbent office holders decisions may be most closely involved in changing the demming population .

    Most political parties have been known to exhibit episodic demming like behavior .  

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