Round-up the usual Trump storylines

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It will take a while – weeks, but more likely years – to sort out exactly how and why Trump won on Election Day. Unreliable first drafts of “conclusions” are already forming. Speaker Paul Ryan is claiming Trump “just earned a mandate.”   Well, I got to say it “mandate my ass.”

unusualtrumpsOnce certain storylines – true or false – take root, it is hard to dig them back out. Steve Waldman writes in Washington Monthly about four storyline “conclusions” that “don’t comport with what the exit polls show.” Here are two recent “conclusions” about Trump’s win that seem prominent now and could be with us for while.

  • This was a revolution of the economically downtrodden.

Many pundits were saying Donald Trump’s victory was fueled by people who are economically dispossessed and struggling.  Here’s what the exit polls actually showed:

Voters with incomes under $50,000 went for Clinton 52%-41%.   Over $50,000 went for Trump 49% to 47%

That’s not to say economic anxiety wasn’t a factor in eroding support for Clinton. She did lose among those without college degrees. Relative to 2012, [Trump] did better with the less affluent than Romney. But the bulk of his winning coalition was wealthier.

The alienation seems more complex – having more to do with racial standing and a sense of whether their futures seem bleak or hopeful more than whether they can actually put bread on the table at that moment.

  • This was a Trump landslide

It was shocking. It was disruptive. It was unambiguous. But by recent historical standards, it was not a landslide. For one thing, Hillary may end up winning the popular vote.  That would mean Democrats will have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7 times.

Beyond that, in the last ten elections, the winning candidate got more than 300 electoral college votes seven times. If you look at both the popular and electoral college, this would count as the second or third closest election of the last ten.

While sifting through the wreckage I’m going to keep in mind this dictum: eye witnesses are the least reliable at recalling details. Meanwhile popular pundits and politicians struggle to find storylines to explain how and why they all got it so wrong about President-elect Trump. A hint to help them find a major piece of the puzzle: try looking in the mirror.

Wrapping your head around a Trump presidency

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If you’re like me, almost nothing you’ve done since waking-up Wednesday morning has not involved anxious conversation about Donald Trump in our future.

There’s a lot to digest in the press, but here are links to some articles from a wide range of sources over the past twenty-four hours, that I specifically wanted to share.

New York Times:  Clinton won the popular vote by a substantial margin.

Fortune: Sanders would have been a better candidate.

Al Jazeera: What a Trump Victory Means for Women.

Slate: Who Can Rein-in President Trump?

Recode: Trump Hates Net Neutrality

Washington Post: Trump and Moscow

The Verge: What will Trump do to the NIH

Forbes: Edward Snowden on Trump

A Message from Senator Bernie Sanders

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Green Mountain Daily is grateful for the opportunity  to bring you Bernie Sanders‘ own words on this troubling occasion.

BURLINGTON, Vt., Nov. 9 – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) issued the following statement Wednesday after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States:

“Donald Trump tapped into the anger of a declining middle class that is sick and tired of establishment economics, establishment politics and the establishment media. People are tired of working longer hours for lower wages, of seeing decent paying jobs go to China and other low-wage countries, of billionaires not paying any federal income taxes and of not being able to afford a college education for their kids – all while the very rich become much richer.

“To the degree that Mr. Trump is serious about pursuing policies that improve the lives of working families in this country, I and other progressives are prepared to work with him. To the degree that he pursues racist, sexist, xenophobic and anti-environment policies, we will vigorously oppose him.”

Republicans: Be Careful What You Wish For

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In the incredulous aftermath of Donald Trump’s election victory, we have many things on which to reflect.

The so-called “leader of the free world” is now a vain, thin-skinned demagogue with the temperament of a child and a complete disinterest in the details of our constitution or the workings of government in general.

He has just been given carte blanche by the electorate to follow his every selfish whim, which he will most certainly do since the venal and castrated Republican Congress is clearly prepared to do his bidding.

What this means for the millions of minority citizens whom Trump openly despises, and in the sphere of U.S. power and influence is almost beyond comprehension.

Since he was never prevailed upon by his followers and the toothless media to provide either his taxes as evidence of any possible entanglements, nor anything in the way of policy beyond general platitudes about making America “great again,” no one (not even his Republican Congress) has the slightest idea of what he might do in office other than strut his plumage and plot revenge on his many, many perceived enemies.

It is doubtful that even he has any plan beyond what immediately will satisfy his vanity and desire to swiftly punish anyone who crosses him.

Welcome to the United Banana Republic of America.

Republicans may enjoy their hegemony in the lead-up to inauguration, but they should be prepared for the worst when King Donald begins his reign for it will most certainly be marked by epic dysfunction of unprecedented scope and consequence.

Unfortunately, we will have to live through it, too.

Prepare for a long, brutal four years of uncertainty, chaos and, when Trump fails to deliver on his promises, riots and rebellion from a heavily armed populace who have been fed on hollow promises and hate.

Coal is not coming back, despite what Donald Trump might have promised. Too much infrastructure has already been replaced.

The election wasn’t “rigged,” unless you count  FBI Director Comey‘s inexplicable acts of bad judgement; or Russian email hacking and other efforts at influencing the election; or voter suppression against minorities supporting Hillary Clinton.  By God, Trump was right about that one thing: the election was rigged…in his favor!

Trump will not be able to replace Obamacare with “something much better.” Far brighter minds have already struggled to bring universal healthcare this far and Donald Trump hasn’t given the matter even a passing thought. An irresponsible tyke to the bitter end, I am sure he would simply end it on the first day of his administration, were that possible, and hang the consequences for the millions of people left abruptly without healthcare.

Mexico will not pay for a wall to be built on its border and only the most paranoid and localized of Trump’s supporters will still think it’s a good idea when the complete impracticality of the plan and it’s cost to the American people ultimately plays out in real time.

The women he has mistreated will not be silent; and, if the Bill Cosby experience is anything to judge by, more are likely to come forward. He will find that the women of America will not forget his abusive past, and God help him if he pulls any of that crap in the Oval Office.  Bill Clinton, he ain’t.

As much as he likes to call Hillary “crooked,” it is he who is currently under active investigation for Trump University indiscretions, has numerous complaints of sexual assault unfolding around him, and may be implicated in Russian attempts to influence the election…which we now understand to have been effective.

Isis becomes his problem now; as does Kim Jung Il and thousands of other more subtle international challenges to which he has devoted little or no thought. Who is his ‘brain trust’ on international relations going to be; Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani??

He’s promised tax breaks for everyone, but closer scrutiny of the plan reveals it’s mostly for his own economic class and he has finessed the question of how to pay for those tax breaks.

Prisons and roads will likely be further privatized because we will be paying for his wall and tax breaks for the well-heeled.

Oh, yes, and he has promised “law and order.” Yay; just what is needed to calm minority Americans already alarmed by his hateful rhetoric. That’s going to go well.

The Republicans allowed themselves to be married to so many whoppers during his campaign for class president that they are beyond count. Right now, I imagine hoards of GOP staffers scrambling to compile the list of promises and misrepresentation for which they will be held accountable by the gullible electorate, which, when disappointed will transform into a tide of angry rabble.

There are lessons to be drawn by everyone from last night’s rude awakening; and there is blame enough for many.

Lesson number one is that the impossible is never impossible and assumptions are begging to be disproved.

Why do we still refuse to believe that the American people will vote against their own best interests, over and over again?

The media played patti-cake with their own Frankenstein creation for far too long; until he turned on them when, too late, they began to hold him somewhat accountable for his lies and hate speech.

The Republican establishment couldn’t summon a collective backbone throughout the primaries and allowed themselves to be bullied into submission by a whiney crybaby. Then, once Trump secured the nomination, after a brief and weak resistance, they all, for the most part, fell in line behind this insult to democracy, preferring the dangerous chaos of a Trump administration to any loss of power to the Democrats.  Rather than strengthening the Republican hand in the long-run, unless Donald Trump really does begin mass deportations of immigrants, this election will only hasten the collapse of an already emasculated party.

Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the Democratic establishment? Well, what can I say?

There will be some Democrats who will be quick to blame Bernie for running against Hillary in the primary and starting the conversation about her faults; but he didn’t reveal any secrets. Those vulnerabilities were already in evidence and the ‘annointing’ of Hillary as the only Democratic candidate would not have done her any favors in the general election. I can’t imagine how Joe Biden is feeling this morning!

Two people who can’t be blamed, however, are Michelle and Barack Obama who gave the campaign every advantage from a stellar approval rating to a relatively strong economic report; and they campaigned like rock stars!

We’re all grieving right now, but after a decent interval, we have to pick ourselves up and go on fighting to win back our democracy. That will take a clear-eyed look at institutional political thought and a willingness to consider a whole new paradigm, perhaps outside the two-party system.

There’s no better time to start than now.

Election Day results links

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Posting links for local and national up-to-date voting results is probably a quaint retro-bloggy thing to do in 2016 (anyone still have dial-up?) and most people probably follow on twitter & Facebook – but just in case here are three good links.votevoice

All politics are local so here thanks to SoS Jim Condos is the Vermont Secretary of State’s Election Day results map. It is updated by county as result come in.

Talking Points Memo has a good results map and editor’s live blog. And if you want to go deep Five Thirty Eight’s hour to hour state by state How to Watch Election Guide that can’t be beat.

And the winner is…cable news networks

Business, National,

Recent polls show only 19% of US adults approved of the media. The press did better with 32 % trust .But those low approval numbers don’t prevent viewers from tuning in-and cable news profits are soaring.

“Look at this mask. Look at this mask. Oh wow. Wow, that’s beautiful. Look at that. Looks just like me.” said Donald Trump
“Look at this mask. Look at this mask. Oh wow. Wow, that’s beautiful. Look at that. Looks just like me.” said Donald Trump

[…] according to sources familiar with CNN’s finances, “the network and its related media businesses will approach $1 billion in gross profit in 2016

And of course as much as one might try, you can’t ignore Fox News:  Fox, which hosted the first GOP debate in 2015, generated $2.3 billion in ad sales and $1.6 billion in operating profit for its parent company, 21st Century Fox, in 2015, according to research firm SNL Kagan. That number will undoubtedly be higher in 2016 given the bigger audiences and higher ad rates in the election year. 

MSNBC is also having an exceptional year. In October alone, viewership was up 168 percent overall and 261 percent in the 18–54 demographic.

It would be interesting to find out how much of a role Trump,the GOP’s buffoon bigot showman had in generating viewership.There is a good chance the Trump show will  get canceled today, but could he show up in his own sequel. You know, Trump TV ?

Will Hell Freeze-Over?

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I came to world awareness by the fluorescent glow of a “Sylvania Silver Screen,” at the tender age of twelve, as the Cuban Missile Crisis unfolded before my very eyes. Never before were children subject to the real-time spectacle of adults playing dangerous war games that tempted Armageddon while they sat powerless in their living rooms.

I was absolutely terrified and vividly remember the nightmare I had one night while convinced I wouldn’t live to see thirteen.

In the dream, I found myself cowering beneath the bay window in our living room, attempting to hide from the sight of Satan and his minions looming large in a battle orange sky of smoke and hellfire through which they sailed triumphant in a “brand new swept-wing Dodge.”

Credit Catholic school and Madison Avenue for that lurid flight of fancy, but it was one of those dreams that used to stay with me for days and made me afraid of going to sleep at night.

Fifty-five years later, on the eve of another historic moment, I feel drawn to that memory like never before.

It is perhaps an appropriate juxtaposition, because as we learned much later, the events we witnessed on TV brought us closer to nuclear oblivion than ever before or since. Only the restraint exercised by President Kennedy at the critical moment prevented an exchange of nuclear warheads that would have most certainly made my worst nightmare come true.  Imagine how Donald Trump might behave under similar circumstances.

This weekend was our last before the final chapter of an election that has seen bigotry, misogyny, boldface lies, saber rattling, threats of revenge and incitement to violence characterize the campaign of the Republican nominee; a man with absolutely no policy experience, no record of public service, no curiosity to learn the basics of our governance, and a personal history of cheating, meanness, childishness and incivility.

Thus described, Donald Trump sounds like he could have only reached this apex in a fevered adolescent dream such as I had so many years ago. Yet, here we are in the grips of a madness that appears to have ensnared upwards of half the nation.

If our democracy survives the next four years, it’s not sufficient to breathe a sigh of relief and go on as we were.
  The Trump response, which has brought us so dangerously close to the precipice this time, is the proverbial canary in a coal mine.

The practice of representative democracy that has worked for us reasonably well throughout the twentieth century is beginning to wear down the fabric of our functional federation in the twenty-first. Gerrymandering has further undermined the “representative” nature of that relationship and heightened the sense of disenfranchisement among significant populations.

Resolved long ago into a two-party system, there was an unspoken agreement that partisan politics must nevertheless adhere to certain rules of pragmatism in order to allow government to function. As the population grew and diversified and economic power became further consolidated in a ruling elite, that unspoken agreement was no longer acceptable to a growing sector of the population whose values and priorities could not be easily be resolved into two competing but cooperative interest groups.

What the Republican party has been experiencing in recent election cycles amounts to a hostile takeover by a coalition of extreme right wing factions and so-called Christian “conservatives.” That take over seems almost guaranteed to formally bifurcate the party following this election.

Hostile even to the rule of constitutional law (apart from the second amendment), the Republican base has come to reward bad governing behavior that does nothing more than prevent business from being conducted in a responsible manner. They have broken the contract with “we the people” to represent the interests of the majority who simply want their government to function smoothly.

It is no accident that the Libertarians have become more and more of a factor in every election cycle.

So far Democrats have managed to contain their friable factions, but many are far from satisfied with the nomination process and the role that corporate wealth has been allowed to play in party priorities.

Democrats, being fundamentally more inclusive and forward thinking than Republicans, seem to have pulled off one more unity drive successfully in 2016; but many in the party’s establishment are blaming Bernie and his supporters for their troubles rather than accepting that his strength is a sign that Democrats are in their own early stages of sclerotic deterioration, relying too heavily on political retreads like the Clintons and assuming that everyone will just fall in line “for the good of the party.”

Personally, I think we will see the two party system weaken more and more in future election cycles as the internet shapes new alternatives into viable “third party” options. I hope that the attraction of the Alt Right to working class white voters will be diminished as saner alternatives allow them to feel more civilly empowered.

Coalitions may be the wave of the future, giving more individuals reason to feel better represented, and quite possibly bridging the two-party gulf that has held twenty-first century American progress in handcuffs.

One can only hope so.

***Meanwhile, get out there and vote for Hillary, for crying out loud!  This is not a drill!!

Updated: Buying Out Democracy

local/regional, National, ,

Post Election Day update: Some national down-ballot state news such as this may get lost in the storm after Trump’s shocking win:[Democrats suffered some of their worst down-ballot failures on election night in the secretary of state races, the low-profile but quietly influential office that oversees elections in each state.

The GOP flipped four seats. Three were open seats: Missouri (Jay Ashcroft), Montana (Corey Stapleton), and Oregon (Dennis Richardson). The Oregon contest was the most surprising, with the GOP winning their first statewide office in more than a decade.]

What  are the Koch Brothers are up these days?  Well, we know the Kochs aren’t paying to woo Vermont voters to build a coal plant in the state. State Sen. Joe Benning (R) humorously suggested a clever headline-grabber what-if thought experiment to drive home his point about the level of outrage there might be were it the “evil” Koch Brothers offering payments to Vermonters to build a coal plant — rather than Iberdrola’s  wind power generating facility.kochbrosbucktalk

Of course the Kochs spend their time and political money   ($900 million in campaign 2016) much higher up the policy food chain than mere voters.

So then what are the Kochs up to these days ?  I mean in addition to running thousands of dollars worth of ads in Vermont supporting Benning’s fellow VTGOP legislative candidates through their Republican State Leadership Committee.

Well, according to the NYTimes.com, the ultra wealthy conservative Koch Brothers, the Republican State Leadership Committee, and other lobby interests are setting their sights on secretaries of state — the people in charge of impartially running elections.

The targeting of secretaries of state with campaign donations, corporate-funded weekend outings and secret meetings with industry lobbyists reflects an intense focus on often overlooked ballot questions, which the secretaries frequently help write.

The ballot initiatives are meant to give voters a direct voice on policy issues such as the minimum wage and the environment. But corporate and other special interests are doing their best to build close ties with the secretaries because a difference of even a few words on a ballot measure can have an enormous impact on the outcome.

This is of particular importance in states that regularly hold direct-vote ballot initiatives on policy issues. And Koch’s RSLC involvement may take this to a new level:  Republicans have turned to initiatives to push their agenda as a counter to liberal activists, according to an internal party memo.

“Ballot initiatives will not be the left’s mechanism for gaining power and advancing their agenda when voters have already rejected them,” said the memo, from the Republican State Leadership Committee, in February 2015 as the group prepared fund-raising efforts. “It’s time for conservatives to take back that power by rejecting their efforts and promoting our own.” NYTimes.com

Ironic as hell that big money is using the ballot-initiative/referendum process to do an end-run around legislatures. But the penny-wise Koch Brothers may figure it is a lot cheaper and more efficient to buy/influence with a few Secretaries of State than feeding friendly herds of state legislators.

A Banana Republic in Southern Vermont?

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In this year of noise over imaginary voter fraud, little ol’ Vermont is confronting it’s own situation of questionable efforts to influence a vote.

Wind-developer Iberdrola of Spain is offering a cash incentive to all adult Windham and Grafton residents if, in an upcoming referendum, the voters come down in favor of its proposal to construct 24 turbines in the two towns.

Now, I don’t have a dog in this fight. Wind is a useful alternative to fossil fuel so long as the siting is responsible and well-considered Those determinations should be made by disinterested professionals. Local representatives of the people have an obligation to consider both those professional opinions and the sentiments of their constituents in making a final decision. I also understand that the popular vote in Windham/Grafton is non-binding.

Nevertheless, it sets a poor precedent for the permit process, and potentially for other processes going forward, when what is tantamount to a bribe is allowed to influence the vote.

I understand the argument that says this is a way to ensure that compensation for hosting the towers will reach all residents by equal parts; but if that were the only goal, there are other ways to handle this after public opinion has been fairly sampled.

After the case for and against has been heard and a public opinion vote taken without undue influence, if the project is deemed unobjectionable, then is the time to discuss the particulars of compensation.

If it becomes the habit to offer this kind of cash incentive in order to grease the wheels of voter “opinion” there could be unexpected consequences.

Should a project succeed in the permitting process only because popular support has been bought by the developer, and despite valid opposition by those most affected, some important values will have been compromised. Should that project then prove a huge mistake for the community as a whole, the fundamental principle of public input could be permanently undermined.

I was grateful to read Secretary of State Jim Condos’ carefully chosen words about the more egregious proposal to make payments only to registered voters. Certainly the current proposal that extends to all permanent resident adults is more equitable, and even arguably less of a direct bribe to voters.

Nevertheless, menace to the process is still very real in this arrangement; and, since the bribes are being offered by a foreign corporation, there is an ironic echo of colonial exploitation in the whole affair.