Rep. David Zuckerman summed up the prospect of an override on the Governor’s inevitable veto of the recently passed budget (one which, as a political progressive, I would give a C to at best). From the Freeps:
“I voted no because I didn’t like this budget,” he said, noting that one of his objections was an $18 million reduction in the transfer of general tax dollars to the Education Fund. “But I’m fairly certain all the Progressives will vote yes to override because the alternative is an even greater property tax shift.”
The Progressive caucus was not uniform on this vote. It’s always worth noting when the Prog caucus is not uniform on anything this significant, but in this case it underscores the developing context to this budget; as a standalone piece of legislation, its a major let-down. If, though, it provokes a veto that is then overridden, it comes off looking like a perfect balancing act between what lefties might prefer, versus what we could expect to realistically get.
The veto stakes, then, are higher than usual. The momentum for a real power shift in Montpelier is on a precipice, and this override vote will determine whether or not we’re still basically at status quo, or whether there’s a new sheriff in town after all. And the prospects look good, just not great.
A second override of a gubernatorial veto would be huge. First because, up to this session, Douglas hasn’t been overridden once. Second, this wouldn’t be any veto – its the freakin budget – the grandaddy of all veto override votes. And third, coupled with the forward-thinking vote of conscience and leadership that the marriage equality override vote was, the two will couple into a narrative of vision, ethics, pragmatism and power that will have ripple effects into the next election season.
Moderate “democrats” of the Frank Cioffi set (who have not, as Cioffi has, essentially sold their souls in a reputation-restricting manner to Jim Douglas republicans) will organically reconsider their alliance with the Governor, as their confidence in his politically supremacy will loosen. Some may come back.
Also, some constituency organizations and activists who work with the Dem leadership during the session but seem to hardly be able to wait to throw them over for untested politicians or token Republicans will see a newly relevant legislature as newly relevant to their own interests.
Both these dynamics have not insignificant electoral overtones.
And both could be undone by whatever happens between any successful override vote and the end of next year’s session. If successful (and we’ll all have to work hard to make that happen), lawmakers would be well advised not to read their success as a mandate to go further to the economic right, as I suspect some powerful legislators would like to see happen. In fact, it would be a golden opportunity for the usual lefty suspects in the Senate as well as the House to cobble together some sort of little-p progressive sub-caucus, like the one on Capitol Hill.
After all, bargaining collectively is a good and powerful thing everywhere else, no? And can you think of a better way to start building more bridges between the Progs and the Democratic left?