Douglas loves his polls. He always spends scads of money on polling, and according to his campaign finance filing, he’s already done 3 this year for a total of $23,000. And the timing may suggest that he may not be as confident as he seems. Consider:

From April 8:

Lawmakers voted Tuesday morning to override Gov. James Douglas’ veto of the bill, with a narrow victory in the Vermont House paving the way for the state to become the first to allow same-sex marriage without a court order.

2 1/2 weeks later, $10,000 for a poll.

From June 2:

BURLINGTON, Vt. (AP) – State lawmakers are headed back to work now that Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas has followed through on his promise to veto the 2010 state budget.

A week and a half later, 8 grand for a poll.

Clearly, part of the strategy for beating Douglas should be to force him to take controversial actions whenever possible, as he seems to be compelled to dash off to the pollsters at thousands of dollars a pop to check his numbers everytime he sticks his neck out there. heh.

A quick trip by the SoS office after work, and I’ve got my reading for the evening. Clearly, there’ll be a need to dig in with a fine toothed comb (as will the many other media types – legacy and new – who were on hand), but I know folks are hoping to get some of the basics ASAP, so here we go.

Markowitz is reporting a total of $190,736.83. With $5745 of that as in-kind contributions, and reported expenditures of $56,356.31 listed, that leaves a cash on hand amount of $128,635.52. Her amounts include a rollover from her Secretary of State campaign account of $17,175.83.

Racine is reporting a total of $102,415.69. With $2663.24 of that in-kind, and expenditures of $19,553.35, that leaves a cash on hand amount of $80,199.10. $844.45 was rolled over from his Senate account.

This means that, in terms of money in hand, Markowitz exceeds Racine by a surprisingly low (relative to expectations) $48,436.42. Good news for Racine, and it means this race is already more competitive than expected.

On the other hand, Racine’s (under $100) contributions come from 314 givers, while Markowitz reports 742. At this point, its the game of lists that in the long run is more important than early cash on hand in a competitive race (which this clearly is). Those contributors can be returned to later, as Markowitz has more names, with a lower average contribution amount, meaning they overall have more to give than Racine’s contributors do at this point. The difference is meaningful.

As far as Douglas goes, he is reporting a bottom line of $104,565.68 – $91,203 of which comes from this reporting period. That’s right – both Markowitz and Racine outraised him in this reporting period. He also reports a whopping $55,675.24 in expenditures, and with no in-kind contributions, that leaves him with $48,890.44 – far less than either Racine or Markowitz.

That’s huge, and marks a sea change that could swamp Douglas. The good news for him is that he’s reporting a whopping 840 small dollar contributors, so that bottom line cash number will grow – but it’s still not good news for the Republican Governor, as far as the inevitability narrative – which has been his most powerful campaign weapon – goes.

Susan Bartlett did not report any fundraising (although there is a $12,009.65 Senate campaign carryover listed, as well as $300 to open an account for an eventual gubernatorial campaign).

As far as Lieutenant Governor goes, nobody filed for that office per se. Flanagan filed for his Senate campaign (and funds can be rolled over from one to the other), but I seem to have already lost my copy on the walk home. If it pops up again, I’ll write up the details.

More interesting is the lack of a filing by House Majority Leader Floyd Nease, who has been openly discussing his interest in the Lite Gov office – even making moves towards formalizing a campaign. Word on the street is that Nease, while not closing the door on a run, is reconsidering in light of competing personal responsibilities and may now be leaning towards staying where he is. While anything can still happen, moving strongly one direction, then leaning back the other way during such an already-lively jockeying for position phase makes it far more likely that he won’t run, given the laws of electoral momentum and inertia.

Anyway, lots to read. I also got my new comics in today, so I’m terrifically conflicted as to what to pick up next. Sure, I wanna know what names of note are supporting which candidate… but on the other hand, Captain America is coming back from the dead this month. Decisions, decisions…

Back in April, the Vermont Agency of Transportation put out the word that $3.8 million in federal economic stimulus money was available for “Non-Class 1” roadway paving. Local municipalities were encouraged to apply for a piece of that pie to support local paving projects that met the federal criteria. As vtrans indicated, “only roads designated as “Rural Major Collectors” or any other Class 2 or Class 3 roadway that qualifies as a Federal-aid Highway are eligible. Vermont contains about 1,000 miles of local roads that meet the ARRA criteria, and we encourage communities that possess these roadways to consider applying.”

Well, the Agency of Transportation is just getting out notification to the 29 towns that submitted such applications but were not selected for funding by VTrans. Curiously, of those 29 rejected, 22 are represented in the legislature by Democrats.

No doubt that’s just a coincidence.

Yesterday, Deb Markowitz made her first foray into the scary world of the netroots, leapfrogging the statewide scene and instead heading straight for the mothership. From Daily Kos:

Hi DailyKos!

I wanted to post a diary here to introduce myself and to announce the spectacular results of our first filing deadline.  The outpouring of support so far has been tremendous, and I look forward to defeating Jim Douglas and putting a Democrat back in the Governor’s office.

Please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me if you have any comments, suggestions, or questions.

My email is debmarkowitz@gmail.com.  I’ve copied my campaign’s first press release after the jump.

Thanks!

Deb Markowitz

She only received a handful of comments, as its hard to get attention for Vermont races in that arena – apparently even if you’re a candidate. Still, she probably raised a few dollars out of it. Of course, probably not nearly the $23,000 in pledges for the eventual nominee that have been generated through the local netroots (on the way to $100,000). But hey, at least she’s out there.

Rest of post (consisting of her press release) follows:

Over One Thousand Individuals Contribute to Markowitz Campaign for Governor – Total exceeds $190,000

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz’s campaign for Governor announced today that more than 1,000 individuals contributed to the campaign since she formed an official campaign committee just a few months ago. The contributions show a broad and deep support from ordinary Vermonters. The total raised was over $190,000.

Commenting on the historic number of early contributors, Secretary Markowitz said “I am thrilled by the overwhelming support our campaign has received from across the state. These past few months, I’ve spoken with thousands of Vermonters in every county from Bennington and Windham, to Essex, to Franklin and Grand Isle. It is clear that there is a desire for real leadership and new energy, and an end to confrontational politics in Montpelier”

Support for Markowitz’s gubernatorial bid has come from every county and from all corners of Vermont, and from supporters from all walks of life. From retired Vermonters, to former Governors and small business owners, including Guilford Select Board member Anne Rider, small businessman Tim Briglin, and Howard Mitchell, a retired Vermonter from East Fairfield – and more than a thousand others like them.

Said Secretary Markowitz., “While we are still in the beginning of our campaign, this early success is a demonstration of a true movement for real change and new leadership for Vermont as we build a strong economy, improve our public education, keep our small towns and rural areas vital, and protect our beautiful state”

Organization Facts

• 90% of all contributors from Vermont

• 90% of all contributions from Vermont

• 1,050 individuals have contributed

• 449 public supporters from every county in Vermont

• 1,166 email sign-ups

• Average contribution of $168

http://www.debforvermont.com

[UPDATE from mataliandy]: The Markowitz campaign has sent out a press release indicating over $190k raised thus far – placing the campaign into the “psychologically closer together” realm Odum alluded to when he wrote this post if Racine reports at least $100k. One thing to note, however: the amount appears not to include funds raised via Emily’s List, which tends to provide decent chunks of campaign cash. The $190k, though below the psychological borderline, is still an impressive number, especially in that light.

[FURTHER UPDATE]: vtbuzz is reporting that Racine has indeed raised more than $100k.

——–

So, what to expect?

Obviously, everyone will be looking at the Democratic candidates for governor, but given that the schedule of this top tier race sets the calendar for the other statewide efforts (as we learned to our chagrin last time around), there will likely be other things to see as well. With one announced Lieutenant Governor candidate (Flanagan), one likely candidate (Nease) and scuttlebutt about three potential other candidates (Costello, T.J. Donovan, Tim Palmer), it will be interesting to see if anybody files, as if any are raising money, it has to show up somewhere, either in a new committee or an existing one for current officeholders. The same is true for Secretary of State candidate Charles Merriman and his likely opponent Jim Condos, although I haven’t heard of any significant fundraising yet from either (Merriman has raised $150 from ActBlue).

But what about the gubernatorial primary? Early scuttlebutt (unconfirmed) had Markowitz aiming for a jaw-dropping $250,000. Racine, who only started raising after the session, seemed likely to be heading for an $80,000- $90,000 total. As far as the expectations goal goes, Markowitz doesn’t have to reach such a colossal number to impress (one doesn’t want to set the bar too high for yourself, as Markowitz has been in danger of doing with her financial shock and awe strategy designed to discourage competition). If Markowitz comes in above $200k, jaws will still be dropped – but she’d have to hit that $250k goal to really blow people away.

If Racine surprises and ekes out a 6-figure total this early, he’ll beat the expectation game as well. There’s no question that Markowitz will raise more – that’s a given – so the expectation game for both of them will be how much.  

Racine has been effectively reminding folks that Markowitz has been fundraising far longer, and she is able to tap registered lobbyists, as sitting Senator Racine is legally barred from doing until the gavel falls on the session in 2010. She also made good use of that early time as the only active candidate, which carried a short-term implication of presumed candidate for the purpose of DC area fundraising. All of which was maximized by the high profile support of such big time Vermont Democratic funders as Crea Linthilac, Jane Stetson and Arthur & Anne Berndt.

Then, of course, there’s the Emily’s List factor. It will be interesting to see how much of Markowitz’s money is coming from out of state, as a large percentage would suggest that EL is kicking in for her as promised. EL reportedly has the goal of powering her to a $2 million campaign overall, suggesting they are hoping to send between 1 and 1.25 million her way between now and election day 2010.

So this stuff is out there, affecting expectations. Markowitz will wow in sheer amounts in the short term. What would not be the greatest scenario for her on that front is if Racine squeaks into 6 figures and she comes in below $200k. That will psychologically put them closer together than she would likely prefer, but it’s not likely to play out that way.

At the moment, Markowitz has raised $56,443 from 263 contributors on ActBlue alone, while Racine has been closing that gap slowly but surely and is up to $28,850 from 136 contributors.

As far as candidate Susan Bartlett goes, she was a bit stuck between a rock and a hard place. Without an early announcement, she ran the risk of ceding the “woman candidate” designation to Markowitz – but neither was she ready to begin a campaign herself yet. So she is stuck in the difficult position of being an announced candidate who will not want to have raised or spent enough to file, only to have that filing look puny by comparison to the two financial juggernauts who are up and running. Best for her to simply say she hasn’t started yet. Still, with her intentions formalized, the clock is ticking. In a better position is Shumlin who, if he does run, will be able to swoop in and christen a “phase two” of the primary saga, and will be given a honeymoon period by the press and public to get something going. Bartlett will be able to ride along with that phase two narrative as well if she handles it right.

So, we’ll see what turns up (and if the Republican State Committee filing affords any clues as to who has been doing their robocalling for them…)

A caveat to all this is the dearth of political analysis I referred to in a diary a couple posts down the front page. If the media conversation stays too dumbed down, none of the early buzz and hubbub, or circumstances of timing and particularized support will matter, and the whole thing gets reduced to a simplistic level. This would be the best possible situation for Markowitz, as it wouldn’t matter how well anybody else is doing – all that will matter for the media narrative will be that she is on top – big.

Although it will be a lot less fun for those of us who are political junkies and like to look behind the numbers, its far from an unlikely scenario come Thursday. And at the end of the day, politics are about perception – which more often than not, becomes reality, no matter what more nuanced political forces may or may not be in play.

I’m looking ahead to July 15th, when the campaign finance reports are due at the Secretary of State’s office. There will obviously be an unusual amount of interest for an off-election year, summer filing because there are already 3 announced Democratic candidates for Governor, two of whom have been actively fundraising (and one reportedly setting unheard-of goals for Vermont).

Campaign finance reports and the impact they have on buzz are much more about the fine tuning of perceptions, rather than simply the bottom line of a balance sheet. They are sort of like stocks in that way. At the end of the day, they are about expectations, projections, trends and the numerous threads that tie together the long haul of a statewide campaign.

Or at least that’s what they’re supposed to be. It’s what they are in other states. Unfortunately, in Vermont, the process gets painfully dumbed down. I got all happy when I saw the headline in the Times Argus, this morning (“Campaign Coffers Clue to Political Potential“), before reading to find that it only presented nuggets like this:

Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, says Markowitz will likely reveal the deepest campaign coffers at next week’s deadline…”It’s a useful marker and it gives us information but there’s still a long way to go before voters are really in large numbers making decisions on this,” Davis says.

Yawn. I mean, no freaking kidding folks.

So it’s not Davis’s fault, and it’s not reporter Hirschfeld’s fault, but there is so little political analysis and discourse in this state that everytime there is such an article, it is so rudimentary as to be utterly dull and completely without impact. When there are half-a-dozen such pieces in the press a year, each one is necessarily an elementary primer for a readership unaccustomed to digesting political analysis.

If you want to see the kind of ongoing, behind-the-numbers analysis that really puts state-level, political nitty-gritty things like campaign finance reports into perspective (at least in any kind of sustained, ongoing way), you’ve basically got GMD and Totten’s column to lean on (and now Margolis, to some degree) – and that just aint enough to advance – let alone develop – a meaningful statewide discussion that can build on itself to get to anywhere (side note: this is not to disrespect Philip, but he does something different than the sort of thing I’m talking about… we couldn’t really pull off what he does).

To fill the gaps, the pressure and expectation falls on the woefully depleted ranks of the Statehouse reporter corps. Given the industry’s cuts and the steady brain drain to the army of gubernatorial mouthpieces over the years, there is already an insufficient number of such reporters to inform the public of what they should be informed of – let alone to play pundit at the same time (a dubious dual-role under the best of circumstances, as punditry generates a personal investment in events playing out in a certain way, creating an obvious pressure antithetical to journalistic neutrality).

The stage on which this plays out is VPT’s Vermont This Week, which features editors and Statehouse reporters all playing analyst for about 5 minutes per topic. And it’s always some combination of the same handful of people which generates groupthink at worst, or simply – again – inadequate depth of analysis at best.

Reporters report, and by necessity have to have a laser-like degree of focus on what they are working on. Editors focus on running the paper and necessarily have a certain degree of detachment from many of the particularized political ebbs and flows of the moment. At the national level, you see analysts and pundit-types filling the gaps that require a more aggregate approach to news and politics with an eye for the trends, the buzz and the dynamics of it all. But here in Vermont, its a handful of reporters and editors – already inadequate in number to fill the needed responsibilities of the fourth estate – playing the roles of deliverers of information, as well as the roles of interpreting what the information means at a deeper level.

It’s not enough, and it has the effect of keeping political discourse in the public sphere incomplete and simplistic – which then has the effect of leaving Vermonters with an unsophisticated, simplistic perception of politics in the state.

And if there’s one thing that’s true in politics, it’s that perception often becomes reality.

I don’t have time to do this up right, so I’m going to let the press release from the state employees’ union do the talking (emphasis added):

A Vermont State Employees Association (VSEA) public information request has provided the union with troubling information about the amount of federal money forfeited by the Douglas Administration as a result of its June position cuts.

“VSEA went over the list of 123 employees provided to us by the State, and we discovered that the total annual savings achieved by the State with its June position RIFs was approximately $6 million,” explained VSEA Director Jes Kraus. “However, of that $6 million saved, roughly $2.4 million was money the federal government provided to Vermont to help pay some of the RIF’d employees’ salaries. In fact, the feds were paying as much as 75 percent of some RIF’d employees’ salaries.

That’s right. In the biggest economic downturn in the better part of a century, Douglas is essentially sending millions of federal dollars back – all in order to put more Vermonters out of work (and all that, presumably, in the service of his ideological holy war against the union).

A response quickly followed into my inbox from one of the candidates to replace him. From the Racine campaign:

“I am disappointed that the Douglas Administration will forego $2.4 million that could have kept Vermonters working and provided much needed services to our citizens.

“Sending money back to Washington is a reverse stimulus package.  Rather than saving jobs and investing in our state’s economic recovery, cutting positions funded with federal money becomes a missed opportunity at a time when Vermonters need every opportunity they can get.

“During the legislative session, I questioned the Administration’s plan to cut positions that were funded entirely with federal money.  Eventually, some positions were restored because cutting them made no sense.  We face serious economic challenges and our response must be strategic and thoughtful.

“I again encourage the Governor to work with the Vermont State Employees Association to find the savings required by the Legislature.  I continue to believe that working together solutions can be found that keep Vermonters working and preserve Vermont’s ability to serve our communities.  Like the early retirement incentive, these solutions take collaboration and creativity.”

If I hear from any of the other candidates, I’ll post their responses as well.

One gets quite a picture of Vermont in this mix of participants at the Montpelier July 4th (well, 3rd) parade. Elected officials, bands, beauty queens, big puppets, tractors and rainbows galore – even a familiar GMD diarist.

As soon as they all become official (which is still an ‘if’ with Shumlin, not an ‘if’ with Markowitz), I’m hoping to send a questionairre to all the Dems vying for the state’s top spot. Everybody gets the same questions with the answers to be posted side by side here with a front page link on the sidebar throughout the election season.

I’m sure I’ll have a couple of my own, but I’d like to lean on the community for many of those questions. What do you think? What should they be asked?  

Moving from Burlington to Montpelier (and on a non-election year to boot) may have predictably dropped turnout from the 80-90 range down to around 30-40, but a fun time was still had by all.

Some pics follow on the flip, courtesy of others with still cameras…

Here’s me with some guy who showed up to scam the free food. I think he was trying to sell me a car.