All posts by odum

Housekeeping

Couple of things to deal with, here…

First of all, regarding that “1000 Vermonters for Change” project and the $35,000 so many of you pledged to send the primary winner the day after the primary. Well, it is the day after the primary, but clearly its a little premature to be mailing those $100 checks, as the winner isn’t entirely clear.

Everyone will be watching to see if the vote total changes meaningfully when it is certified in the next couple days – and then whether or not one of the other candidates opts to call for a recount. When it becomes clear who the nominee is, I’ll be sure to post a link to the winner’s fundraising page.

Second, we had a contest, yes? A mug or stein to whoever came closest to calling the final spread! Looking back at the entries, the winner is the not-quite-psychic-but-close-enough-to-be-a-bit-creepy placlair, whose prediction can be seen here.

So placlair – what’s it gonna be? Mug or stein? Email me at jodum-at-poetworld.net with an address, and I’ll send it your way shortly. Congratulations! If a recount really turns things on their heads, maybe somebody else will have to get one too…

Schroedinger’s Candidate

Wow. When all is said and done, this is going to be an eye-popping 70,000 voter Democratic primary. Even my early, sometimes ridiculed guess of 60,000 was too low – and its a sign that there weren’t nearly the numbers of undecideds the campaign ID calls suggested.

And its not over yet. In fact, this thing could well get tighter. According to VPR, two of the towns that aren’t in yet are not small potatoes: St. Albans Town and St. Albans City, both of which Racine will probably outperform Shumlin in (via Norsehorse in the comments, vtdigger is reporting that the towns yet to come in are Alburg, Brighton, Brookfield, Burke, Cabot, Canaan, Dover, East Haven, Enosburg, Granville, Guildhall, Hancock, Lemington, Middlesex, New Haven, Newfane, Pawlet, Plymouth, Reading, Rochester, Shaftsbury, St. Albans City, St. Albans Town, Tunbridge, Wells, Westfield, Weston, Whiting and Williamstown – there are towns in there that lean both towards Shumlin and Racine, but it’s probably a good bet based on last night’s results that there’ll be an edge towards Racine overall).

Who knows? Perhaps Shumlin and Racine should both show up to the Thursday debate and alternate answering questions.

The Legion of Super-Candidates

Having trouble deciding who to vote for in the Democratic Primary? Hey, do what I do – look at it through a comic book lens.

We did it before, let’s do it again… below the fold for which super-heroes the Democratic candidates for governor would be.

Deb Markowitz: Wonder Woman (Diana Prince)

She’s decked out in emblematic colors. She’s one of the “big three” iconic powerhouses in the DC universe. On the other hand, people aren’t exactly sure who she is and what she can do the way they know the other two of the big three (Batman and Superman). She’s strong, OK… and she has a magic rope, yeah? Does she fly? Wait – no she doesn’t. What’s her secret identity again? Lynda something?

People are vague on her, but there’s no question she’s a powerhouse.

Matt Dunne: Iron Man (Tony Stark)

He’s an innovator. A “futurist” (whatever that means). He’s built his own suit of powered armor, fashioned with increasingly sophisticated upgrades over the years, making him a real power player. And rather than have one specific power built into that suit, he has a broad variety of skills and tools at his disposal.

It’s hard to predict how he’ll do in a given situation, because he seems to have a lot of tricks up his sleeve, and he’s always improving himself in unexpected ways, but may have trouble always seeing outside his own world to identify the real threats.

Peter Shumlin: Captain Marvel (Billy Batson)

Billy Batson may have just seemed like a guy who probably didn’t have a lot to bring to the super-hero table, but with one magic word (Shazam!), lightning strikes, and he’s all of a sudden transformed into – not simply a major player – but the “world’s mightiest mortal!”… but will the lightning be there when he needs it most?

Doug Racine: Spider-Man (Peter Parker)

In his civilian identity, Spider-Man is just a regular, well-liked, kinda nerdy guy. A lot of things go wrong for him too. He swings into situations with a great attitude and a smile, but often finds himself unexpectedly facing opponents who seem to have a lot more power than he does (like the Juggernaut). Still, he perseveres and gets by on his determination – often with a little help from his friends (see Marvel Team-Up issues)

Susan Bartlett: Black Canary (Dinah Lance)

She’s not the household name that the others in the Legion are, nor does she come with the same level of super power, but she’s been a core member of the Justice League of America forever, has a broad range of skills and fighting talents, and can make a lot of noise when she wants to with her sonic scream.

Primary day: avoiding the simplistic

Tomorrow is the big day, and the small handful of political reporters (along with the pair of go-to academicians – with no disrespect intended to recent GMD discussion participant Eric Davis…) are covering the print and TV media with their analyses. Unfortunately, more often than naught, the same conversations among the same few people within the same Montpelier-Burlington bubble makes for a narrow conventional wisdom which, while true in many cases, also creates oversimplifications (sometimes self-serving ones) that can range from simply simplistic to outright inaccurate.

The biggest point about tomorrow is one the experts do have right: anything could happen. All the prognostication and analysis you can conjure is vulnerable to the simple reality of a tiny, tiny turnout (even if it’s a record primary turnout in Vermont) – and a tiny turnout makes trends softer, data unavailable, and firm predictions impossible. With campaign ID phoning suggesting as many as 30% of potential primary voters still undecided, turnout could end up quite a bit lower than the astronomical projections people like me were predicting early on.

But there are six bits of conventional wisdom in circulation that probably necessitate some addressing. They are:

1. The primary has been bad for Democrats.

2. The primary shows that Democrats are in bad shape.

3. Low turnout helps Racine, Markowitz, high turnout helps Shumlin, Dunne.

4. There is no difference between the candidates on the issues.

5. The general election has always been Dubie’s to lose.

6. The national Democrats will (somewhat) equalize things after the primary.

A closer look at these assumptions below the fold…

1. The primary has been bad for Democrats.

Simplistic at best. The primary makes it all more complicated, this is a fact. Those complications have positive and negative effects. Which has more impact depends on the campaigns themselves, as well as the history.

There are good and bad effects of the primary. In the short term, the bad is obviously that the Dems are tearing through money while Dubie isn’t (on the other hand, there’s a lot more money already in the election then there otherwise would be – and few on that list have maxed out. As long as the losing candidates support the winner, that gap could close quickly). You could also argue that the bad is that Dubie is getting that “free pass” and is not getting attacked.

That last one I don’t buy at all. Why? Because of the biggest good of the primary – the increased excitement and media attention. In recent years, the unchallenged Dem nominee hasn’t been able to get any meaningful coverage from the Vermont media until scant weeks before the General Election. Effectively, that meant that the Republican (Douglas) was – that’s right – getting a “free pass.” I’d be willing to bet that more criticism of Dubie is getting covered and penetrating into voters’ minds through this primary as compared to previous cycles.

And that excitement matters. Name recognition for the winner will be significantly magnified, and name recognition has been the biggest factor working against Democrats. Add to that the fact than a primary forces issues to the forefront, and that process has largely united the Vermont left, Dem and Prog, heightening enthusiasm – not to mention building fundraising and GOTV lists.

2. The primary shows that Democrats are in bad shape.

This is a Garrison Nelson bit that has been picked up in recent days. The argument goes that a healthy party is a command-and-control institution, because that is more “organized” – and if healthy equals organized, than a healthy party would be one where somebody like Patrick Leahy swooped in and informed the candidates who was running for what and avoided the dirty primary. This is simplistic thinking at its clearest, because the history of the last two decades shows the precise opposite. Both locally and nationally, the party bigwigs swooping in and deciding the candidates behind closed doors has led to a steady string of electoral failures as the Democratic brand has been watered down to nothing. At every level, it is with the decentralization of party control – the “devolution” if you will of power through grassroots and netroots networks and the plethora of primaries in its wake – that Democrats electoral fortunes have turned around. This line of Nelson’s is simply an ahistorical, lazy repetition of extremely tired conventional wisdom.

All around the country, we are seeing that -in terms of general trends (if not in every single instance) diversity is indeed strength.

3. Low turnout helps Racine, Markowitz, high turnout helps Shumlin, Dunne.

The logic here is that Shumlin and Dunne are bringing in new voters, because Dunne works outside the usual circles, and Shumlin has been surging in poularity.

Eh. There’s certainly truth to that thesis, but it really depends on a lot of things, one of which is where we’re talking about. For example, Washington County Democrats have an actively contested Senate primary – and one of the candidates is Anthony Pollina. Washington County is also a hotbed of Democratic primary voters, and will therfore have an impact on the primary greater than its impact on General Elections.

An increase in turnout in Washington will largely come from Progressive supporters of Anthony Pollina picking up a Dem ballot. Who will these voters break for in the gubernatorial? Largely Doug Racine, who is well liked by Progressives. Yes, Peter Shumlin has also made inroads with Progressives due to his promotion of single-payer health care, and the high profile backing of Progressives such as Addison County’s Ellen Oxfeld, but the mistrust among Progs of Shumlin still runs deep. This largely goes back to the 2002 Lietenant Governor’s race, where Shumlin ran against Pollina, coupled with the history of Pollina’s supporters (both Prog and Dem) history of personalizing challenges against him from Democrats such as Shumlin. In other words, the very fact that Shumlin did not drop out in that race many years ago has permanently damaged him in the eyes of many Progs.

So increased turnout in Washington County probably helps Racine, as well as Markowitz, since Montpelier is her home and will drive much of that increased turnout.

Chittenden County is even more complicated. Racine is immensely popular in greater Chittenden County. To say categorically that he is hurt by greater turnout from his geographic base is goofy. On the other hand, there is the media narrative that he has stumbled, so larger turnout of undecideds will have a tendency to break along that narrative and work against him.

The result? A slightly elevated turnout likely helps Racine, while a highly elevated turnout could indeed hurt as observers like Shay Totten and Eric Davis have suggested.

And then there’s the wild card in this race – Windham County. Windham County is the most reliably liberal county in the state (it was the only county that went for Peter Clavelle against Jim Douglas). It also has a very strong Prog contingent, and is – in fact – evolving into the new hub of the Progressive Party as the Prog’s influence is Burlington has been declining. And with a contested Senate primary, turnout will be up.

Good for Racine, again? Maybe – but (anecdotally at least), Shumlin seems to own Windham County, so an increased turnout could put him over the top. On the other hand, a strong first place showing in Chittenden with an accompanying second place showing could win it for Racine. All of which is to say that Racine’s and Shumlin’s are not direct reciprocals, as this conventional logic suggests.

But there’s also the question of who is voting. While an enormous amount of voters seem to be undecided – listening to the campaigns regarding their ID calls, it’s likely a good 30% of the potential voters – it does seem that undecided women are trending towards Markowitz, and that’s a trend that encompasses all areas.

The candidate’s field operations do tend to support this conventional wisdom, though. Racine has IDed more supporters than the other campaigns from all reports – in some cases significantly so. Markowitz has put the most professional boots-on-the-ground resources into field. Shumlin has blanketed the state with paid vendor IDs which have annoyed some folks and led to some funny situations (at least one rival candidate, as well as a family member of another, have been called by Shumlin ID callers), so his IDs are likely to be plentiful, but less solid.

And Dunne? He’s been working the field for so long, it’s hard to know – and again, it’s in this context where he becomes the “wild card” so many observers have tagged him as. While his support is somewhat mercurial, conventional-wisdom-practitioners have consistently underestimated him (against John Tracy in 2006, in fundraising two months ago), those Montpelier-Burlington-bubble denizens are finally waking up to the fact of that consistent underestimation and are hedging their bets.

Bottom line? This low-turnout-helps-Racine/Markowitz-hurts-Dunne/Shumlin is way too easy.

4. There is no difference between the candidates on the issues.

Of course there is. Anybody who’s spent any time on this site knows that. Primary voters know that, or we’d all be undecided among all five candidates.

This line is essentially a repetition of the “West Wing” notion that the only issues distinguishing Democrats are environmentalism and gay rights (read: Vermont Yankee and marriage equality). Racine is open to rejiggering the tax structure to make it more progressive, Shumlin and Bartlett aren’t. Shumlin advocates for single-payer healthcare, Racine would consider it, Markowitz probably won’t. Dunne would make campaign finance transparency a priority, the others aren’t so interested. Bartlett supports the 2-vote school budget process (albeit somewhat disparagingly), the others don’t (although it’s a bit unclear with Markowitz). The list goes on.

This, again, has become a lazy mantra among the “experts.”

5. The general election has always been Dubie’s to lose.

Ppplt. This is both the most frustrating bit of “conventional wisdom” and the most dangerous, as it’s held among the Vermont media (and clearly not shared by their counterparts in the national media). Dangerous because the media professionals who adhere to it become invested in it, and then perpetuate it in subtle ways through what they choose to report and how they choose to report it.

And its nonsense. The national media has this exactly right – and it has been so for better than the last year. Polls have consistently showed multiple Democrats within the margin of error – and one Democrat in the lead at times. And that’s been early in the process, when Dubie is clearly in a stronger position from name recognition. This is the only actual data we have to work from, as opposed to experts letting their conversations with other Montpelier-Burlington-Bubble experts guide them. Sure the Republican has more money – but since when is this a new situation? Even a cursory reading of Brian Dubie’s campaign finance report reveals the same kind of wild, unfocused and unrestrained spending that characterized the Jim Douglas campaigns… a weakness that remains ripe for exploitation by a smart, efficient Democratic campaign.

And the fact that the polls we do have are unreliable (WCAX’s Research 2000 polls are now in question, after R2Ks professionalism has been assailed by Daily Kos, and Rasmussen has a well-documented history of oversampling Republican supporters) simply makes this conventional wisdom that much sketchier.

Turnout patterns. Voter enthusiasm. Political trends. Those are more telling. And all those point to a nailbiter.

6. The national Democrats will largely equalize things after the primary.

Don’t count on it. This race was targeted early on by the Democratic Governor’s Association, but while that organization (which has undergone a recent leadership change) has blown away fundraising expectations recently, its a bit of a mess. Targeting means little when its resources and priorities seem to be at the whim of more powerful Washington interests that have never cared about Vermont.

An example? Insiders were urging the DGA to make their presence known in a small, inexpensive way at the beginning of the year, when some Republicans – concerned about settling for Dubie as their standard-bearer – were trolling for a primary challenge. A simple online viral video designed to maximize those concerns could have initiated a GOP primary, largely nullifying the Democratic primary negatives indicated above.

The DGA wouldn’t give such ideas the time of day, partly due to disorganization, and partly because they really don’t give two craps about Vermont.

And the national new media/blogosphere? Forget it. Again, Vermont is like some quaint little foreign country to the national netroots leaders. Encouraging them to get involved just seems to annoy them.

No – if the winning campaign tomorrow is counting on being bailed out by the national Dems, they are already ceding the contest. If we’re going to win this, we have to do it ourselves.

Primary GOTV has begun: Last push on 1000 Vermonters and GMD poll (poll closes Mon. @ noon)

Thermometer+ChartThis is it. If you haven’t already, make sure you run over to Facebook and sign up for the 1000 Vermonters for Change group, where we have amassed tens of thousands of dollars in pledges to be sent the day after the primary to whoever wins. This is a way to do our part to offset the financial drain of the August election. We’re not making it to 1000, but factoring in those non-Facebook users who have also pledged, we’re up to 340 pledgers equaling $34,000!! Here’s the link.

And again, here is the online GMD poll for your preference in tomorrow’s primary. We’ve only had a hundred 350 500 or so of our 6000+ weekly readers vote, so don’t forget to jump in. We’ll post the results tomorrow (Monday) and see who the choice of the GMD community-at-large is.

If you’d like to check out the GMD admin’s picks, here are links to the folks who have taken a stand:

This survey is currently closed. Please contact the author of this survey for further assistance.

Hoffer endorsed by all five Democratic candidates for Governor

Doug Hoffer has been endorsed over Ed Flanagan in the Democratic primary for Auditor by all five Democrats vying for the gubernatorial nod. This has special significance given that three are current colleagues of Flanagan in the Senate (Bartlett, Racine, Shumlin).

This should surprise no one, as I can’t find anyone endorsing Flanagan.

Which is very sad. This entire primary campaign of Flanagan’s seems like an unfortunate chapter in a truly historic political career, as it seems he is running only to defiantly maintain political relevance in the face of scandal.

None of which is to say that, given his statewide name recognition as a former Auditor, he still isn’t capable of winning the primary on that name recognition. We’ll see.

Quick guide to primary stuff…

I’m on vacation with next to no internet access, and here it is the last financial filing before the primary! What’s a political junkie to do?

Sigh. Guess I just have to wait for the press releases. In the meantime, here’s a quick guide to some of the coverage out there leading up to next Tuesday:

Stowe Reporter primary endorsement: Dunne

The Stowe Reporter has endorsed Matt Dunne in the Democratic primary for Governor. This makes two for Dunne, along with his previous Addison Indy endorsement. From the editorial:

Change is part of who he is; he believes there are better ways to run state government – and he’s absolutely right. His work for Google and AmeriCorps and at the Legislature reflects an ability to assess challenges and inefficiencies, revamp approaches, set goals and meet them. As such, Dunne not only has set broad political and policy goals for the state and organized the framework to reach them – everything from balancing the budget to making Vermont an “innovation state” – but he defines the specifics.

Awards Season Hits & Misses

Summer is the season where the local papers run their various readers contests to drum up a little interest and ad revenue, and sadly Green Mountain Daily did not repeat its sweep of 2009.

GMD was bumped off the top spot in the Seven Days “Daysie” awards, where Philip Baruth captured the readers’ award for best political blog (congratulations, Philip!). Second place went to vtdigger.com. Interesting, that runner up, as vtdigger is… well… an online newspaper, really, rather than a web log. I wonder if editor/journalist Anne Galloway isn’t a bit uncomfortable about the “blog” label’s baggage in the media business. Still, even if it makes her squirmy, I’m glad she won something – even if it’s not an exact fit – because she deserves to. It’s the best online news site in Vermont and deserves to be recognized. Congratulations Anne!

GMD did, however, repeat in the Times Argus Best of the Best contest a couple weeks back, winning the readers’ nod for best blog. Thanks to all who voted for us in both contests, and to Seven Days and Times Argus for running the contests.