It’s a different world than when we started this project. Whereas it’d be goofy to take all the credit, it would be equally goofy to suggest this community had nothing to do with it. Consider:

• The Douglas/Dubie era is over. We have a Democratic Governor.
• We have firmly established Democratic supermajorities (or at least, non-Republican supermajorities) in both the House and Senate
• We have Progressive Party stalwarts – even Anthony Pollina himself – engaging in the Democratic Party primary process in order to further their agenda – and they are meeting with unqualified success.
• We have a political press corps whose culture is, despite some holdouts, not beholden to what Jim Douglas spoonfed them over the last couple years, as was the case in the Graff era.
• We have seen a decentralization of the Democratic Party Power structure, including dramatically increased levels of transparency and accountabilty, all of which led to a robust, fair primary and – ultimately – victory (okay, we’re gonna have to take a LOT of credit for this one)
• We’ve seen election process reform in the shifting of the primary date and a “sore loser” law.
• We’ve made the Vermont netroots into an institution that provides the trifecta for good candidates as of this year: media coverage, volunteers/activism, and now even contributions.
• We’ve managed to play a key role in defeating some Democrats who were more Republican than most Republicans, and we’ve also help the advancement of some great new faces (such as blogger Philip Baruth).
• Did I mention we have a Democratic Governor? One that has stood up to corporate power (Entergy), stood up for civil rights (marriage equality), and who even stepped out and called for the impeachment of George W. Bush? So much for the fiction that progressive policies are election losers.

A big part of what we’ve done at GMD to make this possible is to create and develop this site as a direct feed for regular, rank and file lefties into the twin arteries of political power: the lawmakers and policy-makers themselves, and the professional media. They all visit this site and what they read has an effect. All of you diarists and commentaters matter, perhaps more than you even realize.

So, in a sense, GMD “Phase 1” could be considered over. A lot of what we set out wanting to change has changed. But the mantra of the blogosphere has always been “more and better Dems,” and it seems appropriate to double up on the “better” part of the equation.

Party is a means to an end, not an end in itself. A more just, ethical and functional state has always been the end – and it will always be a moving target. GMD has never been, as the grousers insist, some kind of partisan mouthpiece. On the contrary, in building the size and influence of the netroots community, we have managed to annoy those in power who consider themselves Democrats far more than we’ve annoyed anyone else – and that’s because we don’t let up, and we don’t expect our leaders to either.

So: in the brave new world, expect GMD Phase 2 to be bigger, louder – and more effective than ever. This is a no-captive-constituency zone. Tomorrow I’ll put up a diary taking that concern head on in the hopes that the new Shumlin administration and newly empowered Democratic majorities will learn to avoid the mistakes the national Democrats made going into the recent election.

Hopefully that’s a lesson that our leaders won’t have to learn the hard way, but if it comes down to it, we’re pretty practiced at the whole “tough love” thing.

A wash in the House, where some solid new talent, as well as some repeat candidates found success…

Pick-ups:

Sarah Buxton (WSR-ORA-1)

Sam Young (ORL-CAL-1)

John Bartholomew (WSR-4)

Kevin Christie (WSR-6-1)

Brian Campion (BEN-2-1)

But some seats were lost as well, either by incumbents, or in the case of Addison-5, a new candidate aiming to keep an open seat in Dem hands…

Losses:

Jeff Young (FRA-3)

Megan Smith (RUT-WSR-1)

Erin Bessy (CHI-7-1)

Spence Putnam (ADD-5)

John Rodgers (ORL-CAL-1)

All told, the makeup of the House will be 94 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 5 Progressives and 3 Independents.

Here’s a look at some of the winners and losers (behind the obvious candidates) given the reality of Governor-Elect Shumlin.

Winners:

• Shumlin Campaign Manager Alex Maclean is now the big dog electoral organizer in Vermont. With a re-election in 2012, she and Governor Shumlin will be the new Democratic Party power brokers, surpassing even the Congressional delegation. Maclean will lead a real generational power shift in Montpelier.
• Jill Krowinski and Planned Parenthood. The former VDP Director and Symington for Governor Campaign Manager seemed to have moved out of electoral relevance, but came roaring back directing an unprecedented muscular intervention from Planned Parenthood of Northern New England. The perfectly timed push changed the topic of the Governor’s race, putting the discussion into the arena of abortion rights which arguably catalyzed Dubie’s election loss. With this victory, Krowinski is more of a player than she even was when she worked in the Speaker’s office.
• Drew Hudson & Matt Holland. You probably haven’t noticed, but these guys’ fingerprints are all over this election, from the unprecedented League of Conservation Voters’ efforts to the impactful and widely-discussed Green Mountain Future organization. I must say, even I had no idea how much of the independent efforts that led to the Shumlin victory came from their new firm, PowerThru until I did some work with them in the last couple weeks. PT will likely be the go to political consultant firm on the left in Vermont.
• Vermont’s Teamsters. Lots of unions are big winners, here – NEA, VSEA, the Troopers – but none bigger than the Teamsters who backed Shumlin in the primary when most of the union support was going to almost-nominee Doug Racine.

Losers:

• IBEW and George Clain. They doubled down for Dubie, and not just in a matter-of-fact way. They were in-your-face with their support, Clain in particular. It’s hard to imagine a bigger loser with Shumlin’s victory, and they won’t have their allies in the Vermont labor community to turn to for solace, as they burned most of those bridges as well (and with relish).
• Entergy Corporation. Duh.
• Frank Cioffi The go-to “Democrat-for-[fill-in-the-blank-Republican]” just became irrelevant, even as his role as psuedo-Democrat big shot was already becoming a cliche.
• Harlan Sylvester. 7 Days just did the latest semi-regular expose on why investment money man Sylvester of Burlington is the master of the universe, or somesuch nonsense. He isn’t. He never has been, and his mystique is one of the biggest examples of Burlington-bubble insider silliness I can think of. It goes like this: he thinks he’s a kingmaker even though nobody’s heard of him but insiders. Insider types then feel they’re in the know by understanding that he’s a kingmaker. They tell others to impress them with how in the know they are about the real kingmakers that mere mortals don’t know about – and so it goes. Harlan Sylvester as political relevance doesn’t even rise to an Emperor-has-no-clothes example because virtually nobody’s even bothering to look. Sylvester is no emperor, just a name insiders like to drop to show other insiders how insidery they are. The fact that Sylverster’s candidate (Dubie) lost, just makes him that much more meaningless.
• John Mitchell, publisher of the Times Argus and the Rutland Herald. It’s an open secret that Mitchell overruled his editorial boards and had his papers endorse Brian Dubie. So openly undermining his own well-respected people just gave his whole operation a kick in the credibility, especially since his candidate lost. Add to that the well-known challenges the papers are having and it makes onlookers wonder if the papers aren’t in a relevance-spiral. As much as the Herald and Argus higher-ups have made their distaste of bloggers like myself well-known, there is a lot of undeniable talent there – talent which now has its work cut out for it more than ever with the ill-advised moves by the paper’s owner.
• 7 Days. Not to overstate what isn’t a huge deal, but after Routly & company dug in on defending the unprofessional “most ethically challenged” tag they slapped on Shumlin (which famously became Dubie’s number one tool of attack), there’ll be some chilliness, especially coupled with the “Dubie’s (election) to lose” drumbeat over the months. A bit of humility on 7 Days part makes it all go away, no doubt, but if the we’re-too-hip-for-words takes continue, “Vermont’s Independent Voice” might find their access to the new administration to be a bit less than they’d prefer for a while.

Coming soon, we’ll look at some of the folks who could imaginably get tapped for roles in the Shumlin administration.

Your take? Other winners and losers? It’s not hard to start coming up with a very long list of each when you start thinking about it.

Nobody’s calling this one yet, but it’s starting to look like a real mathematical and demographic stretch to imagine Dubie erasing the deficit.

So let me be the first to call it for Shumlin. If I’m wrong, I’m only a blogger, right?

But I’m not wrong. It’s a new day in Vermont. The Jim Douglas/Brian Dubie era is all but officially over.

It’s looking very good in the Chittenden Senate race for Philip Baruth of vermontdailybriefing.com, by the way. I won’t call it, so as not to jinx him, but… as I say, looking good.

Salmon looks to be far enough ahead that his re-election as Auditor seems like a done deal. Name recognition and incumbency win again. Disappointing, but it shouldn’t be a big surprise.

On the other hand, Jim Condos has just declared victory in the Secretary of State race. Cutting off Jason Gibbs’s ascension is something we will all be indebted to former Senator Condos for for some time to come.

UPDATE 10:33: I know the numbers are looking rough on WCAX, but I’m cautiously optimistic. Looking at their town-by-town breakdown here, it looks to me like Dubie isn’t doing strongly enough in the key Chittenden ‘burbs like Essex and Williston to offset Shumlin numbers yet to come in. Also, the numbers that they are reporting in Burlington are a pittance compared to what they should be. Not sure how they’re reporting these.

Good god, what the hell am I doing? I wasnt gonna live blog this.

Y’aint missin’ much. Nobody here knows nuthin, neither.

In truth, there are early positive signs and early negative signs about the Governor’s race. I’m cautiously optimistic. VPR has a good website with results, but nobody seems to have everything. They also have towns they have identified as bellwethers, which seem to be (barely) trending Shumlin, but I strongly question their choices. If towns like Jericho and Bristol go Dubie, it’s likely that the state will, but the reciprocal is not necessarily true.

Interestingly, my own analysis suggested that Dubie needed to take his home town of Essex by 60%, and according to vtdigger, he’s come in at 59%. That’s just too close to have any sense of anything, even if it does technically meet my personal definition of encouraging.

In any event, if today’s polls stay within 1 or 2 points either way, I think Shumlin takes it from what was a superior early vote effort. So stay tuned.

Several people coming up to me introducing themselves and telling me how much they like GMD. That’s a really nice thing to hear.

It’s an unfortunate fact that the longer I am away from the day to day business of professional electioneering, the more detached I become mentally from the experience on the ground and – as a result – start to overlook the quiet contributions of those professionals making it all happen. Here it’s Election Day, and I realized only yesterday while on air on Vermont Edition that I have, up to this point, almost completely neglected the staffs on the ground.

There have been a lot of great jobs done this year as well that merited recognition a long time ago, come what may – especially when you consider this Coordinated Campaign is following up the unpleasant soap opera that was the ’08 Coordinated Campaign. Paul Tencher, Robert Dempsey and numerous others deserve a lot of credit for taking up the professionalism and efficiency of the operation several notches.

But the biggest star who is going to emerge from all this is Shumlin Campaign Manager Alex Maclean. Early on in the effort, the buzz was that she personally was pulling more of the weight than a single staffer should, especially for a first time CM with limited electoral experience. And in truth, she probably was. I suspect, however, that her future trail will be littered with people underestimating her intelligence and capacity. Maclean showed discipline and agility, and the inevitable missteps have been minor and inconsequential. There is no question that, win or lose, Maclean is going to be the go-to Campaign Manager in Vermont Democratic Party circles for some time to come (and I mean time… she has a lot of years to go in this business).

It’s hard to make predictions in Vermont because there’s so little data, and such a small population base can turn unexpectedly. Having said that, I’m expecting a good night for Dems, although there’s no question there’s going to be drama. With all the appropriate grains of salt and disclaimers that I really don’t know, here’s what I’m gonna throw out there. This way you can make fun of me when I’m wrong:

US Senate: Leahy 65%, Britton 32%, Others 3%

US House: Welch 61%, Beaudry 38%, Others 1%

Governor: Shumlin 49%, Dubie 47%, Others 4%

Lt. Governor: Scott 52%, Howard 45%, Others 3%

Secretary of State: Condos 51%, Gibbs 49%

Auditor: Hoffer 50%, Salmon 50% (Going out on a limb a bit here, but I’ll definitely disagree strongly with Totten that the last minute release of the DUI video hurt Hoffer. No way. Maybe it stung among the 5% of the electorate at best that has been really following this race, but 95% of voters just don’t follow the auditors race, and “DUI” has now been repeated enough, it’s going to neutralize name recognition. I think Hoffer takes it in the end.)

Fact: There are two candidates who might win the race for Governor tomorrow – Brian Dubie and Peter Shumlin.

Fact: No matter who wins, the changes in our state government will not be revolutionary, radical – or quick.

Fact: But whoever wins tomorrow will set the state on a path. One path will start us down the road towards a responsible energy policy, land use policy, economic policy and towards a more thoughtful, comprehensive management of our natural resources.

One path goes the opposite direction.

Anyone who thinks that decision isn’t meaningful, or that being a part of that decision isn’t worth their time is either not paying enough attention or willfully ignorant. That’s something election activists of every stripe should be able to agree on.

(REMINDER: If you haven’t yet, be sure you go to the online GOTV tool at votegreengov.org! Use the tool to find your green voting friends and neighbors and send them a personalized email urging them to vote!!)