It’s a question I hear asked more and more often from those who remember how the genesis of the Progressive Party had a lot to do with liberal frustration with the centrist administration of Democratic former Governor Howard Dean in the 90s. At the time, Dean had no interest in accommodating the left, and was even known to openly mock liberals who seemed politically stuck with him. The combination of ideological frustration and personal pique went a long way towards evolving Burlington’s “progressive coalition” into a full-blown Progressive Party.
So when Governor Shumlin digs in, particularly on his views on taxation and his seeming deference on many public policies to the very wealthy in the state, the question inevitably gets asked as to whether history will repeat itself, and whether Shumlin’s trickle-down intransigence won’t lead to a resurgent third-party movement (either a reinvigorated Prog operation or something new) and a new era of structural advantage to Republicans in major elections.
Given the history and dynamics of the state, I think the answer is “yes,” but not right away. The political/ideological construct Shumlin has very deliberately built to protect him from such challenges from the left (as well as from the right) will do it’s job for a while, but will prove unsustainable very soon. The question is – will it matter?
First of all, let’s say what everyone assumes, but often doesn’t want to say: Peter Shumlin’s agenda is built to get him re-elected, first and foremost. Sure, that sounds tacky and seems disappointing, but it is what it is. That’s not to say that it isn’t built on genuine opinions and ideology, but the key is that it’s “based on” them. Not as far off as, say, “The Exorcism of Emily Rose” was “based on” real events, but neither is it as close as, say “In the Name of the Father.”
Shumlin’s generally liberal-based calculus is also far superior to President Obama’s, which has failed miserably. The problem with “political triangulation” is that, when it goes wrong, everybody gets pissed off off at you, rather than being on your side. Obama has gambled on an owning of the mushy middle. Shumlin has taken a far wiser track.
There’s mumbling around the Statehouse that the only issues Shumlin cares about are pre-K, Vermont Yankee, and Health Care. I think you add ways and means (tax policy) to that, and you have a complete list. That’s because these issues are the ingredients to the Governor’s recipe for success. In fact, he has seemed concerned about other issues getting in the way of that calculus, reportedly showing anger to some insiders within the activist community who have created waves on social service issues during the session, for example.
Here’s the idea: Vermont Yankee demonstrates that he is a man of conviction who fights for what he thinks is right and can stand up to bullies. Health care shows him as a forward looking visionary. Pre-K shows that he is compassionate, family-focused and engaged with issues traditionally considered in the “women’s” sphere. Tax policy shows the rich Republican set that they have nothing to fear from him, and that he’s part of the club. Add to that marriage equality where he shows he’s a social live-and-let-live-er, and you’ve got the whole picture.
The fact that these things may not seem to be traditionally politically compatible (government run health care and tax cuts for millionaires?), just makes it better – that’s mavericky. The difference between being a political maverick and a political schizophrenic is whether or not your differing views fit together with themselves, or if they’re just a flailing, random assortment. With Shumlin, each paints a part of the picture, so they fit together nicely. Hence, Shumlin is already creating a powerful legacy of his identity as a chief executive which will serve him well in the history books, or in any further political ambitions.
This is why we on the left are wasting our time trying to appeal to Governor Shumlin on rational grounds to reconsider his approach to taxing the rich, or to dial back his decidedly Reaganesque rhetoric on state revenues and the need to protect our handful of millionaires from having to pay more in taxes than they feel like. We may have a strong intellectual argument, based on studies, letters signed by Vermont rich folk, records showing the real immigration patterns of the wealthy, etc – but the fact is that Shumlin’s view is not based on intellect at all. It is, in the end, a vital piece to the political narrative he has built for himself, and he is ready to deny the reality on the ground unto eternity to continue cementing that identity.
He’s also got his political base structurally tamed. The progressive left is often depicted as a disjointed collection of single issue causes, but the fact is there’s a hierarchy to that cause spectrum – and universal health care sits squarely on top. So long as that is in the balance (and so long as the left feels Shumlin is genuinely working towards it – which he clearly is), there will be no challenge from the left. There may be talk based on tax policy, or other issues, but it will not gel into an actual challenge.
So in the short term, Shumlin is secure from a ballot-splitting renewed Progressive Party, or Green Party, or whatever. His first – and most critical – reelection effort (2012) will be a clean D vs R, as Health Care will still be unfolding.
But that won’t last. This is where the partial shelf life of Shumlin’s carefully built political identity kicks in. Shumlin can’t drag out the health care implementation because the left will smell a rat. Dragging it out will also threaten his “gets things done” bragging rights.
And again, Shumlin is no political sociopath. His political identity-construction, as I said, is based on real beliefs, and he does genuinely feel that health reform is critical for the state – particularly for the state’s business climate. He wants to get this done.
But once it is done, many on the non-Democratic left will give freer rein to their anti-Dem feelings and will find enough simmering frustration on the tax issue – as well as the numerous, cumulative cuts in social services necessitated by Shumlin’s stubborn refusal to progressively raise state revenues, that they will finally begin to coalesce around alternatives.
The Shumlin folks will be shocked, horrified, angry. How could the left turn on the guy who brought them universal health care, they will ask? In asking they will make the classic Democratic political mistake of focusing exclusively on how they feel groups of human beings should behave, rather than how they actually do behave. That’s when they will start to feed the process by scolding the malcontents for acting the way humans always act, much like scolding a fish for swimming. Those malcontents will not like being scolded for behaving in ways that feel natural (because they are natural), so they’ll get madder and pull a few more people to their side – and the whole cycle of trying unsuccessfully to shoehorn a third party into a hardwired two-party system goes around again (sometimes I think all Democratic Party strategists – particularly the self-appointed ones – should be forced to get social psychology degrees).
And the time will come when we all will wish that the momentum to IRV hadn’t been so thoroughly crushed by the god-awful Kiss administration in Burlington. Of all their sins, knocking election reform back 30 years is, IMO, by far the greatest…
But I digress.
So that’s when the third party comes back. Will it be the Progs? Frankly, the Progs may well not exist by then at the rate they’ve been imploding. The Progressive Party is not on the favorable end of the bell curve of mortality.
But it will be many of the same faces, simply rebranded. And it will again never attain more than 10-12% of any statewide vote. It will ignore the lessons of the recent Pollina elections that running as an independent or a Dem would get them far more of the vote. The pointless demonizing of the Democratic Party (which is no more or less inherently problematic than any other political institution) and the human urge to make clubs will drive these folks to form the next sometimes-major party.
But here’s the thing: it won’t happen until after Shumlin has won re-election the first time, and in the process marked the Governorship as his for as long as he wants it, due to Vermonters’ particularly pronounced deference to incumbency. It will impact other races, sure, but SHumlin will be secure.
Three steps forward, two steps back, as we creep into the future. Thus has it always been, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing or a good thing – it’s just a thing thing.
Still, wouldn’t it be nice if Governor Shumlin dropped the calculus and just lead, without political consideration? Sure, the stakes would be higher – he may lose some control of his legacy, and his future value as a candidate would be less certain – but he (and the state) could score big.
If he did, he could be the Governor who broke this goofy kabuki dance on the left, rather than simply leading us into the next pass through the same cycle. And that would be a cool legacy from where I’m sitting.