All posts by jvwalt

It’s a poll; it must be news (example no. 4,287,563)

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Top story on the BFP website today: “Faith in Vermont State Government Declines.” First sentence:

Vermonters have relatively little faith in their state government, and significantly less than five years earlier, a new survey finds.

Wow, “significantly less.” That is big news, I guess. But exactly how far has Vermonters’ faith in state government fallen?

Only 15 percent of survey respondents possessed a great deal of confidence in state government, 4 percentage points lower than in a 2005 survey.

Oh. Four percent. A decline roughly the same as the poll’s margin of error, which happened over a five-year period. So even if the poll’s margin of error was zero, this is a decline of less than one percent per year.

Now, having only 15 percent expressing a lot of confidence isn’t exactly a healthy situation. It’d be nice to see more faith in government — and maybe we will, now that the guy who oversaw this “significant” decline is out of office. But this story is a prime example of editorial laziness: taking a statistically insignificant poll result, and splattering it all over the front page.  

The Entergy’s New Clothes

Pardon me, but when VY supporters insist that Vermont would be royally screwed if we shut down the nuke, isn’t it all pure nonsense?  

As I understand it, the electricity market is no respecter of borders. Prices are set, not at the state level, but regionally and/or nationally, based on market forces. Because large-scale power storage is beyond our current capabilities, electricity must be used as it is generated. It flows freely across state lines, so that supply balances demand at every moment.

Thus, if VY closed, the state would not suddenly lose one-third of its power supply. It would have to “import” more power, sure, but there wouldn’t be a shortage. And prices wouldn’t be affected much at all; the absence of VY would diminish the continent’s available pool of electricity — but that’s a really big pool, and the effect would be negligible. Our electricity prices wouldn’t rise any higher than any other state’s.

So the next time you hear Brian, Jim, or Dave bemoan the prospect of extortionate energy prices, businesses fleeing the state, brownouts and blackouts, just remember this: it’s just as untrue as the ranting about the Ground Zero Mosque.  

A sign of strength

As I sit here at 7:08 a.m., Wednesday morning, the race is still up in the air. With 89% of the votes counted, Shumlin has a tiny lead over Racine, with Markowitz hovering just behind.  

Now, unlike many of the front-pagers and regular commenters on GMD, I didn’t have a strong opinion in the race. I thought the Dems had an incredibly strong, deep field, with at least four candidates who could perform credibly in the general election. (My only negative thought: I wished that at least one of them had had the guts to run in 2008.) I made up my mind, literally, standing in the voting booth, staring at my ballot.

And no matter who wins, I feel good about the race.  

The five Dems ran strong campaigns. Three raised significant amounts of money. They didn’t trash each other — not enough to weaken the eventual winner, certainly. Judging by the very high turnout, they managed to engage the electorate in a significant way. At least four of the five candidates have pledged their support to the winner. And I fully expect all five to show up at the unity meeting, even if the result is still unknown.

I feared that a wide-open primary shootout would leave the Dems depleted and possibly divided. But while the candidates raised and spent quite a bit of money, I don’t think the well is dry — by any means. IMO, things are looking remarkably bright on this most amazing post-primary morning.  

Oh, those dastardly miscreants!

A few days ago, state Human Service Commissioner Rob Hofmann released some apparently damning information regarding the misuse of computers by state workers. This, in support of the Douglas Administration’s plan to spend $120,000 on software designed to prevent such activity.

He cited six cases, including some real doozies: downloading 1,000 pornographic images, running an eBay business on state time, inadvertently downloading a computer virus. Clearly, no one wants to spend their tax dollars on such malfeasance.

But wait a minute. Read the fine print.

“This is the type of behavior that we are committed to eliminating,” he said of the incidents, some of which happened in recent months and others as long as six years ago.

Six cases… in six years? If you ask me, that’s a pretty damn fine record. How many thousands of workers have had access to state computers in the last six years? Is this really a problem? Sure, there are (literally) a few bad apples, but this is  no sign of an epidemic of computer abuse. Quite the opposite, in fact.  

But it sure does make state workers look bad, and reinforces the stereotype of lazy (unionized) miscreants neglecting their duties and thumbing their (unionized) noses at the taxpayers. Hofmann, again:

“It is highly regrettable to potentially tarnish the fine efforts of the majority of our staff, by having to acknowledge the incredibly outlandish actions of a few employees,” he said.

Oh yeah. I bet you regret it.  

Dubie’s cultural choices

BP’s recent post “Dubie Scheduled to Ride the Tiger” referred to the “unsatisfying glimpse” into Brian Dubie’s character revealed in his Facebook page. On the contrary, Dubie’s favorite cultural touchstones provide a clear window onto the man’s soul. I can’t call it “satisfying,” because, in fact, it’s rather disturbing.

First, and least, of all, his favorite TV show went off the air 35 years ago, his favorite movie was released 39 years ago, and his favorite novel came out in Nineteen Freakin’ Fifty-Nine. When exactly did he stop paying attention to popular culture? Has he heard about this newfangled hippity-hop music that the kids are into these days?

But more revealing is the content of Dubie’s top picks.  

Okay, “The Omega Man.” A movie about a single heroic figure (Charlton Heston, natch) who travels an apocalyptic wasteland (taxed-to-death Vermont?) battling armies of homicidal mutants (liberals?). He is nearly burned at the stake by said mutants for the crime of heresy (conservatism?), but manages to escape. Then, he creates an anti-mutation cure from his own blood — shades of General Ripper — and, at the end of the movie, sacrifices himself in an effort to secure the survival of humanity. He dies, according to Wikipedia’s description, “symbolically posed in the traditional position of the crucified Christ.”

Yikes. Well, maybe we can find some balance in his favorite novel. Seek the Fair Land, by Irish writer Walter Macken, is set in Ireland during the period of Cromwellian rule, a time when British authorities were actively persecuting Catholics and forcing them to abjure their faith. The lead character, Dominick MacMahon, sees his wife killed in a bloody massacre and flees to the countryside with his two children and a wounded priest. There, they battle starvation, deprivation, and the pursuit of a relentless government official.

That’s still kind of apocalyptic for my taste. “Gunsmoke” isn’t quite so toxic, but it does speak to the same kind of hero-fantasy: a laconic man (Marshall Dillon never debated his enemies, either) of spotless character and integrity defending his community against the forces of disorder and lawlessness.

As for Dubie’s favorite quotation, “Press On” is rather generic, but I suspect he takes it from the Bible. Specifically, the Apostle Paul’s letter to the Philippians, chapter 3, verse 14 (New International Version): “I press on toward the prize for which God has called me in Jesus Christ.”

If the notion of a political candidate with Messianic impulses doesn’t appeal to you, maybe you’d prefer “Press On” in the other formulation I found online: a quotation from that great visionary Calvin Coolidge. “The slogan ‘Press On’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” (Take that, welfare mom!)

To be fair, you can’t necessarily judge a person by their spare-time preferences. You can appreciate The Doors or Kurt Cobain without being a druggie wastrel. Your favorite culinary excess might be a trip to Al’s Frys for the quart with gravy and cheese. You might watch pro wrestling on TV. But, good grief, I can’t help but be a little bit disturbed by the Brian Dubie I see here.  

Dumpster diving on the Internets

So I visited Washington Monthly this morning to get my RDA of Steve Benen, and at the top of the page was a banner ad for Brian Dubie! (Actually, this seems to be a frequent occurrence: conservative ads appearing on liberal websites. Hey, Republican donors, did you know your hard-earned dollars are going to support Talking Points Memo?)

The banner read: “Should Vermont’s Next Governor Increase government spending?” And offered a link to an online petition.

Yeah, I clicked on it.  

The “petition” is just a place to give the Dubie campaign your contact information, of course. Above the “petition” is a rather disconcerting close-up of Brian squinting into the camera. And below the “petition” is the inevitable “Comments” section. Which included this gem, from “VT Rebel”:

VT. state Gov’t like the Fed. gov’t is a Cancerous tumor that is metastasizing. What it needs is a good dose of radiation to shrink it.

Ahhhh. Now I understand why conservatives support Vermont Yankee. Radiation… it’s a good thing.  

Polling on the cheap

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Just got phone-polled by the Len Britton for Senate campaign. Not a big budget operation, just an automated poll with only four questions: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Patrick Leahy? (Fave) Would you vote for him for re-election, no matter who runs against him? (Yep) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senate Candidate Len Britton? (I pressed “3” for “don’t know the guy”) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the job Congress is doing? (Went with fave, just to throw the numbers off)

That was it. No party identifiers for either guy. The call did prompt me to look up Len’s website. Dang, that’s one scary mugshot they have on the front page!  

Top marks for Yankee, you betcha

Wayne Leonard, Entergy CEO, quoted in today’s Times Argus:

“It is a model plant in many respects,” he said. “We do not comment on specific ratings of specific plants but Vermont Yankee is among the elite in operating performance.”

See, kids: you should count yourself lucky you don’t live near any of the other Entergy nukes. You know, the run-down, leaky, unreliable, poorly-managed ones.  

Lipstick on a different pig

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The exodus continues, per the AP…

Another official from the administration of Gov. Jim Douglas is going to work for the Vermont operations of FairPoint Communications.

Sabina Haskell is currently deputy secretary of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

On Feb. 8 she will become FairPoint’s new director of public relations.

She’s gonna need a whole lot of lipstick for that pig. But I’m sure she’ll be very well compensated. Certainly it’ll be more lucrative than editing the Brattleboro Reformer. Career advice for aspiring journalists: your soul is your most marketable asset.  

Adding another thought here, and perhaps stating the obvious. Haskell went from journalism to government PR, to a top executive position at a major state agency, and is now going back to PR. Now, journalism and PR are two sides of the same coin — or the yin and yang of the communications trade. Management (and specifically environmental management) is a completely different field that requires completely different skills and experience.

I take this as additional evidence that she was unqualified to be deputy secretary of the ANR. No executive experience (or environmental experience, natch) before that, and no executive posting afterward.

If that’s not bad enough, she only served a little over six months as deputy secretary. Hardly enough time to get a handle on the job, even if she were qualified for it. Y’know, if our state government doesn’t work as effectively as it could, maybe we should look at the revolving-door policy and rampant cronyism among Douglas’ top executives, rather than at the supposed laziness of the (unionized) state workforce.  

Douglas Calls for Inaction

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Yes, I know, it’s a shock. From the Times Argus website, posted late this afternoon under the rather direct headline Douglas Flip-flops on Yankee:

Gov. James Douglas today called for lawmakers and regulators to delay taking action on the future of the troubled Vermont Yankee nuclear plant in the hope that the owners of the Vernon facility can regain public trust and perhaps later win a new operating license.

Further:

“We have got to restore that confidence so we can make sure the plant” will continue to provide power, jobs and other benefits to the state, Douglas said.

He added that it seems to him “less and less likely” that a vote by lawmakers will take place this year and that the company had to change its slate of top managers.

This is a clear indication just how badly VY is doing in the court of public opinion and the halls of the State House. I can think of only one reason Douglas would call for postponement: he knows he can’t win right now or anytime soon.

After all, last year, when some Dems were talking about delaying action on VY renewal, wasn’t Douglas dead set against delay? Something about how Enexus needed to know ASAP whether they’d be able to operate past 2012, and the state couldn’t wait any longer to plan for future energy supplies? Now, it seems, delay is the best way “forward”.