I tell ya, I’m on the edge of my seat. Can’t hardly breathe. So, you may ask, why all the anticipation?

Randy Brock is about to unveil his health care plan.

Yes, folks, RandyCare is on the way! And as you might expect, it’ll be a free-market system — a conservative alternative to Governor Shumlin’s plan.

Brock won’t reveal the full plan until next month, but he made his pre-announcement at the Republican convention on May 19. It’s only now been reported by Peter Hirschfeld at the Vermont Press Bureau. (Published in the May 25 Times Argus, available online here. Thanks to BP for the link.) Why nobody reported it until now, and why nobody else has reported it at all — well, that tells you all you need to know about the state of the Vermont news media.

At the GOP’s convention Saturday, Brock revealed the rough outlines of his conservative take on health care reform. Less government intervention, not more, Brock said, will allow market forces to work their cost-containment magic.

Yes, “magic” is about the right word. As if the free market will solve all our health-care problems. As if the free market hasn’t been responsible for the costly, inefficient, and sadly inadequate system we’ve got today.

“There is no question that we need to reform our health care system to corral runaway costs … But only a Democrat would think solving those problems requires a government takeover of the whole system,” Brock said. “What government really needs to do is to aggressively recruit lots of new insurance companies to come to Vermont so consumers have more plans to choose from.”

Only a Republican would think solving those problems requires more of the free-market juju that’s put us in the mess we’re in today. And as for recruiting new insurance companies, I have two thoughts:

— This ain’t a football coach schmoozing high-schoolers. “Recruiting,” in this context, surely means “gutting regulatory oversight and letting insurance companies do whatever they want.”

— More isn’t necessarily better. Which would you rather choose from: 500 unvetted, poorly-regulated insurance plans, each outlined in mountains of legalese? Or a couple dozen plans reviewed and approved by experts?

Elsewhere in his speech, Brock hit on all the conservative talking points about health care: tort reform, slashing regulation, and allowing high-deductible CrapCare policies that only cover catastrophic conditions.

Oh, but I haven’t gotten to the good part yet. Brock is developing RandyCare with a team of advisors, many of them so-called “conservative luminaries” from out of state.

One of them is identified in the article, and he’s a real piece of work. Details after the jump.  

Meet Tarren Bragdon, young conservative on the move. He ran a policy shop in Maine that advised Paul LePage, the Tea Party-backed Republican Governor*, on how to institute a “free-market” health system. The result, a bill called LD 1333, was passed buy the Republican Legislature and signed into law by LePage.

*The one who sneaked into office in 2010 with only 38% of the vote, in an election that included a very strong independent candidate.

Here’s what the Maine Politics blog said about the effects of LD 1333 when it was pending before the Legislature. This is presumably what Tarren Bragdon and Randy Brock want for Vermont:

L.D. 1333 would repeal many of Maine’s basic health care consumer protections, allow out-of-state insurers to market policies in Maine without a way to enforce those policies and make sure claims are paid, undermine access to quality affordable health care for older Mainers, rural residents, people with pre-existing conditions and small businesses through significant rate hikes based on where you live or your age.

Sounds peachy, doesn’t it? Sounds like Randy Brock is fully committed to the Tea Party/Koch Brothers style Republican politics of 2012.

But wait, there’s more! Last spring, Tarren Bragdon packed up and moved to Florida, where he founded a new policy shop that’s worked closely with Gov. Rick Scott (R-Asshat). His group was responsible for the bill that would require welfare recipients to be drug-tested. (It would have already required testing, except that it’s been blocked by a judge.)

Yeah, nice guy. And he’s helping Randy Brock shape his policy agenda. There are also a few locals on Brock’s team, and they’re exactly who you might expect: El Jefe General John McClaughry of the Ethan Allen Institute; Wendy Wilton, GOP candidate for Treasurer and staunch critic of Shumlin’s health care plan; and Dr. Mel Boynton, surgeon at Rutland Hospital who’s on the advisory council of the Ethan Allen Institute. A real rogues’ gallery of hard-right Vermont politics.

I don’t think we have to worry about Randy Brock taking my advice and trying to appeal to the center.

Oops, almost forgot one other little tidbit about Tarren Bragdon. When he moved to Florida, he bought a house in Ave Maria — the archconservative Catholic enclave conceived, built, and controlled by Tom Monaghan, the nutball from my home state of Michigan who founded Domino’s Pizza and, since he sold the company, has devoted himself to an extremely devout lifestyle and devoted his fortune to bankrolling conservative Catholic causes. And that’s where Tarren Bragdon feels at home.  

(With apologies &/or gratitude to Dan Hicks and His Hot Licks.)

Did anybody ask for this?

Former Burlington Mayor Bob Kiss hopes to move to a new political arena – the state senate.

Mere months after the ignominious end of his mayoralty, Bob Kiss apparently believes it’s time to get back on the horse. He either has a big set of cojones or a bad case of cluelessness. Or possibly both.

He said he sees his political experience – six years in the Vermont House and then six as Burlington’s mayor – as an asset to his candidacy.

He’s one of a select few who would see the last six years as a political asset. To be fair, I don’t know Bob Kiss, and as a Montpelier resident, I follow Burlington politics at a distance. But my sense is that he’s a nice guy who made a lot of mistakes as mayor, had little to no support at the end, and left office because the writing was on the wall. His misadventures were — and are — a significant handicap for the Progressive Party, and helped sink the city’s IRV system. Doesn’t sound like an asset to me.

On top of all that political baggage, Kiss would also face stiff competition for Chittenden County’s six Senate seats. Five incumbents are in the race; Burlington City Councilor Ed Adrian is in the running, and former State Rep. David Zuckerman is mulling a bid.

But for Bob Kiss, it’s full speed ahead.

“People have had a chance to review and consider the work I have already done,” he said.

Yes, I’d say that’s true. But I don’t think it helps.  

The story came out Monday on Vermont Public Radio:

The Vermont Yankee nuclear plant is not needed for the stability of the New England electric grid, according to grid operator ISO New England.

Just last year, ISO had said Vermont Yankee was needed to ensure the stability of the region’s power grid.

Now ISO says transmission upgrades and new generation means that Yankee is no longer needed to maintain grid reliability.

Which, as the Conservation Law Foundation’s Sandra Levine noted, undercuts the main argument for continued VY operation.

“The lights will stay on, the electricity will keep flowing, and we will continue to have more than adequate power supply without Vermont Yankee,” she said.

Since Monday, the story has kind of slowly piddled out in the Vermont news media.  

This would seem like a fairly dramatic development in the Yankee saga. But aside from the VPR report, it’s gotten short shrift in the state’s media. The Associated Press issued a very brief article, obviously cribbed from the VPR account. The Burlington Free Press’ only coverage, as far as I can tell, is that very brief AP account.

The Brattleboro Reformer buried the ISO pronouncement in an article about last night’s public meeting with representatives of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

(The Reformer says that ISO made the announcement on Wednesday. Which is curious, since VPR reported it two days earlier  

This might be a media conspiracy to downplay the story, but I don’t think so. As a veteran of the biz, I suspect that the real reason is simple competitiveness. News sources hate to follow up on stories broken elsewhere. They have to credit the original source, and they have to spend time and effort basically catching up with someone else. The result — worthwhile stories getting underplayed — is a disservice to us all, but it’s just the way self-interested organizations and human beings tend to work.  

A priceless story posted by the Freeps’ Terri Hallenbeck on vt.Buzz today. It’s about Governor Shumlin’s star turn at the Vermont Chamber of Commerce’s Business Expo.

Shumlin talked up Vermont’s rebounding economy, implicitly giving himself credit. “There’s a vibrancy about Vermont’s business climate right now… Today, we have lots of good things happening.”

Standing next to him was Chamber President Betsy Bishop, a former top aide to Jim Douglas. And Shumlin happily referred to an earlier talk by Mike Smith, formerly of the Douglas Administration and now at FairPoint; Smith had also highlighted the rebounding economy.

When asked about this, Bishop argued that Vermont’s turnaround began under Douglas and has merely continued under Shumlin.

Shumlin got to give a speech because, well, he’s the Governor and all. His challenger, not so much:  

Out in the halls of the business expo, Shumlin’s election opponent, Republican Randy Brock, was networking. One of his goals in the 2012 election will be to persuade voters that Shumlin is out-and-out bad for business.

…Brock will have a tougher argument to make if the economy really does keep turning around and if every every time he turns around, former Douglas aides are standing by Shumlin.

Heh, heh. Yeah.  

So I’ve been consistently and harshly critical of the Randy Brock campaign. The lackluster start, the invisibility throughout the legislative session*, the missed opportunities, the minimal online presence, and the prefab Spampaign that launched a few days ago.

*Yes, I know it’s a Vermont tradition to begin campaigns after the Legislature adjourns, but (1) it’s an antiquated notion, (2) it’s more honored in the breach than the observance, (3) there are ways around it even if you want to publicly honor it, and (4) Remember Gaye Symington. If you’re going against a powerful incumbent, don’t wait until May.

Okay, wise guy, you may well say. If Randy Brock’s campaign has been a laughable series of missteps, then what would you do?

Here’s my strategy: Go all out, go all in. Hold nothing back, release the Kraken if you’ve got one. Bound For Glory Or Bound For Hell. This strategy requires a candidate willing to take chances and defy conventional wisdom. It also requires a candidate with a personality. Oh well, let’s spin this out anyway…  

— Fire the damn out-of-state consultants. They’re wasting your money on slick but inauthentic material.

— Stop the generic attacks on Shumlin, and identify targeted attacks that have a chance to stick.

— Drop the Titanicare weaksauce. Call it Shummycare. (With apologies to the Estate of Peter Freyne.) Put it all at Shumlin’s feet, and make it personal.  Heck, keep calling him Shummy, he might get mad and make some mistakes.

— Don’t call him “the most liberal Governor in history”; that doesn’t resonate. Go for Shumlin’s real negatives: his narcissism, his unilateral style, his bombast, his occasional screwing-over of his allies, his obvious ambitions for higher office, his cozy relationships with big corporations. (That’s where the $21 million CVPS deal can fit into a larger narrative.)  And yes, you can be a Republican and attack a Democrat for corporate ties; it’s called conservative Populism, and whether or not it makes sense as a political philosophy, it can resonate with many voters.

— Stop with the over-exaggerated “Brink of disaster” stuff. Nobody believes it, except the real hardliners. Effective attacks have to be at least somewhat plausible.

— Talk to independents, moderates, and even liberals. Find out what they want in a Governor, and find ways to tie that to your strengths. And identify issues that might help you pull away potential Shumlin voters, even if they aren’t “core Republican” issues.

— From those conversations, give people some positive reasons to vote for you. Specifically you, not just some generic Republican parroting the usual Republican talking points.

(The preceding two ought to have been done months ago, sometime last year. But it’s not too late.)

— Schedule as many joint appearances as you can with Phil Scott, the only VT Republican with proven broad appeal and credibility.  

— Be creative about campaign appearances. But whatever you do, don’t do it halfway; authentically enjoy whatever you’re doing, whether you’re good at it or not. The only thing you can’t be is stiff and inauthentic. If you can’t milk a cow without looking like Calvin Coolidge, then don’t milk a damn cow. Go to places where you’re comfortable enough to come across as real. (Maybe that means going to Dealer.com and talking high-tech.)

— Stop defending Vermont Yankee. There’s a sizable majority who either don’t like nuclear power or don’t trust Entergy. Mindlessly defending VY is a vote-loser, and it overshadows the rest of your energy pitch (such as it is). Here’s a viable, and Republican, alternative: “I want Vermont Yankee to be part of our energy mix if it can be operated responsibly and if the decommissioning fund is replenished.”

— Do your own radio ads. Start with your own ideas (assuming that you do have some) and work with a radio pro (there’s lots of ’em looking to make a few extra bucks) to write good scripts and help you read them effectively.

— Same with the TV ads. Get a local videographer, or even a good amateur, and let them be a little rough-edged.  

— Dump the “bears in the woods” spot and, if you think it’ll help bring Shumlin down a peg, do a fresh commercial emphasizing the ridiculousness of the whole bird-feeder escapade, and Shumlin’s cluelessness for repeatedly bragging about that really stupid thing he did.

— Take some chances. Speak off the cuff. Engage reporters whenever they show up. Talk to voters as much as possible. Have someone documenting it with a camcorder, and post the good stuff online. Create a YouTube channel that’s actually entertaining. Yes, it’s possible.  

— Fully engage yourself in social media. Train yourself to Tweet and post to Facebook whenever anything happens, relevant or not. (Twitpics from the road are better than stock campaign shots.) Mention interesting people you meet, things you saw, what you had for lunch. If you can’t do this, get yourself a college-age intern who can keep you on the stick or even turn your comments into effective posts. And make it real, not just the obviously phony “I look forward to seeing you at the parade” stuff.

— Keep the bear mascot, but turn it into a full-fledged cartoon. Decouple it from the CVPS issue and either make it more generic (Shummy Bear?) or give it a wardrobe of issue-specific T-shirts. Don’t use it at Brock events; send it to Shumlin appearances. Tell the costume-wearer to stay within the law, but otherwise do whatever it takes to distract attention.  

— Given your age, this is almost certainly your last shot at statewide office. Dive into this thing, give it all you’ve got, and don’t be afraid to be edgy and different.

I’m not saying that Randy Brock would win if he did all this. But he’d certainly attract a lot of attention. And he’d at least have a chance, which he doesn’t with his current Spampaign. He might even set up his party for future success if he charts a new course and exploits some weaknesses in Shumlin’s armor.

I also don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that Randy Brock will actually do any of this. As I said above, it requires a candidate with a personality.  

A small, tangible victory in a much larger battle: federal immigration authorities have suspended deportation proceedings against Takako Ueda of Dummerston, VT. Washington Post:

The decision ended months of uncertainty that was heightened in December when Ueda received a letter ordering her to leave the country by Dec. 31. She did not comply. [Her wife, Frances] Herbert said in a phone interview from the couple’s home in Dummerston that they had been told Ueda’s case would be reviewed in two years.

“Now at least we can exhale,” Herbert said.

They can also have something more like a normal life. Ueda had not been able to apply for a driver’s license or seek employment; now she will be able to do both.

The couple had strong support from Governor Shumlin and Vermont’s Congressional delegation. Those three, Pat Leahy, Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch, issued a statement:

We welcome this remedy that for now will offer a measure of common sense and compassion for this Vermont couple. All three of our offices have worked hard to support this loving and committed couple who have been unfairly prevented by DOMA from enjoying the rights and benefits that all lawfully married couples deserve.

Ueda and Herbert are one of five couples who have sued the federal government seeking green cards for foreign-born same-sex spouses. They will continue to pursue the case.

And yes, they face uncertainty after two years. What happens after that may well depend on who’s in the White House.

(Photo from the website of Immigration Equality, an organization fighting for equal rights under immigration law for LGBT and HIV-positive people.)

If you look at all the anti-Democratic numbers in today’s poll on the Governor’s race and the Legislature’s performance, plus the pro-Republican numbers in Castleton State’s earlier poll on the Attorney General race, you see a remarkable consistency.

Every number that’s pro-Republican or anti-Democrat is somewhere between 23 and 31 percent.

That’s the Republican base vote as it exists today — less than one-third of the state’s electorate. And that’s the uphill battle before the VTGOP this year. (Which is why Don Turner is merely hoping to hold onto his tiny minority in the House.)

And it’s why any candidate who campaigns in Vermont on the basic national Republican template has very little chance of winning: that stuff just doesn’t have broad enough appeal in Vermont. So as most state Republicans tack to the right, in lockstep with the national party, they’re decreasing their chances of winning in November.  

There’s a new poll from the Castleton State College opinionwerx, and it’s chock-full of good news for Governor Shumlin and bad news for challenger Randy Brock.

Topline:

The poll has Shumlin winning 60 percent of the vote. The Republican Randy Brock would get 27 percent of the vote….More than 10 percent were undecided how they would vote in the general election.

That’s a huge advantage for Shumlin. Not only is he riding comfortably above 50%, but the undecideds are astoundingly small for such an early stage in the race. Not only does Brock have to win over all the undecided voters; he has to convince a healthy number of Shumlin backers to switch sides. And he’s not gonna do that with his cookie-cutter, consultant-driven Spampaign.

(The WCAX story quoted here makes no mention of Martha Abbott or the Progressive Party. I do hope that Castleton’s surveys include the Progs. )

Making that job even harder is this finding:

Shumlin’s approval rating is also high. More than 65 percent approve of his job performance, 23 percent disapprove of Shumlin’s job performance in his first two years on the job, and 12 percent are not sure of the governor’s performance

Love him, hate him, or be ambivalent about him (there I am), Peter Shumlin has done a masterful job of positioning himself for re-election. Barring a huge catastrophe — and he’s already sailed through one of those, nee Irene — he’s got 2012 in the bag.

After the jump: A late add on another CSC survey result.

An e-mail correspondent reminded me that there was another question in the Castleton survey, which I frankly ignored because the Shumlin results were so stunning.

Respondents were also asked their view of the state Legislature, and the answers were very positive: 57.5% approve or strongly approve, 31.5% disapprove or strongly disapprove. 11% were “not sure.”

Those are pretty darn good numbers, and they further underline the problem facing Randy Brock — especially if he sticks with his off-the-rack Spampaign. With so many Vermonters approving of Shumlin and the Democratic Legislature, the boilerplate attacks on single-party rule are unlikely to bear fruit. The majority of voters see the Administration and the Legislature as basically doing a good job. That doesn’t leave much room for the Republicans.  

Oh, look out, folks: Randy Brock 2.0 is here. Yes, the putative Republican gubernatorial nominee has finally, finally, FINALLY rid the Internet of his first campaign website, an embarrassing hotchpotch of stock photos, recycled material, uncorrected typos, a dearth of material, and sadly infrequent updates.

The new website is slick and professionally designed. But it’s just about as content-free as the original.  It’s obviously straight out of a campaign consultant’s basic toolkit. “Hey, we need a website for Randy Brock.” “All right… let’s see, he’s from Vermont, right? We need something outdoorsy. Maybe template number 24-B, with the fuzzy landscape photo in the background. And plug in that “bears in the woods” ad on the front page — might as well get as much mileage out of that as we can.”

A prefab website. Goes with his prefab stump speech as delivered at Saturday’s state Republican convention. The one where he called Peter Shumlin the most liberal Governor in Vermont history. I suspect that every Republican challenger to a Democratic incumbent will trot out the following Mad Lib: “(Name of Democrat) is the most liberal (name of office held by Democrat) in history!”

And it goes with his prefab new 30-second campaign ad, “Character.” It’s 30 seconds of faux-Ken Burns noble string music with artfully-employed photos and stock footage, just like every other introduce-the-candidate campaign ad in the country. Your eyes are guaranteed to glaze over by the tenth second. Afterward, you might vaguely recall seeing some sort of campaignish ad, but I bet you dollars to donuts you won’t remember who the candidate was.

Folks, welcome to the Spampaign, a 100% potted political product bearing no resemblance to any known animal or vegetable material. I don’t know how much Randy is paying his well-known out-of-state consultants, but whatever it is, he’s getting ripped off. They’ve obviously outfitted his campaign with off-the-rack material, scarcely modified at all to suit Brock’s personality or policy stances or the unique nature of Vermont.  

Let’s go back to the website. Yes, it’s slick-looking, but the content is just sad. The Brock bio looks like it was written by committee, or possibly generated by a computer program. It begins with the stirring paragraph…

Randy Brock, the 2012 Republican candidate for Governor of the State of Vermont, served as Vermont’s 28th State Auditor. The State Auditor is one of Vermont’s five statewide Constitutional Officers. He currently is in his second term as a member of the Vermont State Senate.

Really gets the blood pumping, doesn’t it? And the Brock “issues” page is full of Republican S.O.S. Cut regulations, end Shumlin’s health care reform, “challenge the educational establishment” (hint, hint: unions!), cut “pie in the sky” renewable energy plans, get that $21 million from CVPS, and this little gem:

Simplify the tax code and even the load by making sure everyone pays at least something.

In other words, raise taxes on the working poor. Brilliant!

I don’t know why the VTGOP insists on following the national Republican playbook to the letter, when it’s clearly out of step with Vermont politics. Poverty of imagination? Over-reliance on those out-of-state consultants? Or maybe Limbaugh Poisoning: they’ve ingested so much claptrap from the right-wing media that they can no longer think in any other terms. Kinda makes it tough to appeal to moderates and independents.

Brock’s “Events” page is even sadder. The next event listed is a Meet & Greet at somebody’s house on June 5. June freakin’ fifth! More than two weeks from now! This campaign’s off to a hot start, isn’t it?

There are two other Meet & Greets later in June, and that’s all. Wow.

As for the rest of Brock’s online campaign, it’s still embarrassingly tiny. He’s up to 160 Facebook friends. The four most recent “Posts by Others” include two from this past weekend, one from May 10 (“Are you related to Jim Brock of Bermuda and Quechee, VT?”), and one from April 30.

And Randy has yet to master the Art of the Tweet. He’s only written 16 Tweets in his one month on Twitter, and he has a whopping 60 Followers.

There you have it: Brock 2.0, the Spampaign. Contains no natural ingredients or nutrients; guaranteed 100% completely artificial.  

This Just In from Channel 3’s Kristin Kelly (@KK_WCAX) onTwitter:

New @wcax poll of primary voters #vt AG: Sorrell 49% Donovan 23% Not Sure 25% – @wcax_kristinc has more result coming up at 6.

So, if TJ is to upend Bill Sorrell, he has a fair bit of ground to make up. Of course, you could look at it the other way: a 15-year incumbent can’t even muster 50% support in a primary poll. That’s pretty darn sad.

Still, if this poll is accurate, TJ will either have to convince some Sorrell voters to switch sides, or he’ll have to completely sweep the undecideds.