Well, the returns are in for the mid-August campaign finance reports*, and the race for Governor is — even more than before — a settled issue. Peter Shumlin’s gonna whomp Randy Brock.
*Covering July 16-August 15.
The official reporting form has a summary page including total donations and expenditures, but it does not have a line for “total cash on hand.”
So Peter Shumlin’s campaign added a cover sheet to its report, just so nobody missed the big news. Which was right in the middle of the page, off by itself, in bold print:
Cash on Hand: $769,026.61
Holy bleepin’ shit. That’s more cash on hand than all the other statewide (non-federal) candidates COMBINED. That’s three times as much cash on hand as Shumlin’s opponent, Randy Brock.
That completely unneccessary cover sheet: just a subtle crotch-grab by the Shumlin team. Might as well have put a banner across the page: GIVE IT UP, RANDY.
Other top headlines from today’s filings: Randy Brock’s fundraising falters. TJ Donovan outraises — and outspends — Bill Sorrell. Doug Hoffer and Wendy Wilton pick up the pace, but still trail their respective opponents. And, as reported earlier, meager reports from Jack McMullen and Cass Gekas. (I didn’t bother getting reports for Jim Condos, who doesn’t have a Republican opponent, or for US House or Senate.)
Now, the rest of the story…
Shumlin trounces Brock. Peter Shumlin raised $160,000 in the past month, for a campaign total of $836,000. When you add in a 2010 surplus of $26,000, you get Shumlin’s extremely impressive cash-on-hand total.
It also helps that Shumlin is spending a lot less money than Brock. He’s reported campaign expenditures of $93,000 so far, including $16,000 in the past month.
Brock raised only $55,000 in the past month — Pundit Laureate Eric Davis had opined that Brock had to raise at least $100,000 to stay competitive — and spent $66,000. (Darcie Johnston’s making a very good living off the dying carcass of Brock for Governor; she got two checks for $8,000 apiece in the last month, to add to the $48,000 she “earned” before July 16. Brock also wrots lots of hefty checks to his out-of-state consultants.)
Looking at the Brock campaign overall, it’s spent $348,000 and raised $581,000 — but that figure includes $300,000 in loans from Brock to his own campaign. In other words, if it wasn’t for the loans, his campaign would be $70,000 in the hole. He didn’t make any additional loans in the past month; perhaps even he can see the writing on the wall.
TJ outdoes Sorrell. In the past month, Attorney General Bill Sorrell raised $22,000, for a total of $105,000. Challenger TJ Donovan raised $35,000 this time, for a total of $164,000. Donovan’s also outspending Sorrell by quite a bit; $71,000 this period and $111,000 so far, compared to Sorrell’s $20,000 this period and $58,000 overall. In terms of cash on hand, Donovan has a little more than Sorrell, roughly %53,000 to $47,000.
The spending totals reflect a challenger who’s mounted a serious effort to take down the incumbent, and an incumbent who might be a bit… shall we say, comfortable? Complacent? Sorrell’s doing okay in fundraising, but he only spent $20,000 in a month with the primary less than two weeks away. That doesn’t exactly seem like an all-out effort.
As reported earlier, Republican AG candidate Jack McMullen had another dismal haul, taking in less than $20,000 — virtually all of it in big checks from a handful of out-of-state donors. He raised less than $300 within Vermont. (Not counting a personal loan of $3500.)
Illuzzi outraises Hoffer. Technically, Republican Auditor candidate Vince Illuzzi has yet to file his August 15 report; he couldn’t get to the Secretary of State’s office on time, and instead e-mailed it in. To be official, it must be delivered in person. But here’s what the unofficial version says: $19,000 in fundraising in this period, bringing the total to $51,000. Expenditures of $76,000, and total spending of $10,000.
Dem/Prog Doug Hoffer is making slow progress, reporting fundraising of $17,000 this time and a campaign total of $27,000. He’s spent a total of $8,400. And he’s loaned his own campaign $10,000. (Illuzzi had previously loaned his campaign $25,000.) So, Hoffer trails Illuzzi in the money race — but at least he remains in Vince’s rear-view mirror.
Which is more than can be said for Wendy Wilton’s effort to unseat Beth Pearce. Republican Wilton took in $17,000 this period, giving her a grand total of $33,000 in donations. She spent $8,000 in the past month, and $13,000 in the campaign to date.
Pearce raised less than Wilton this time around — her total was $12,000 — but she continues to hold a commanding lead in campaign cash. Pearce has raised a total of $95,000. She’s spent $50,000 so far, but still has a substantial edge in cash on hand. Also, looking at Pearce’s donor list, most of her contributions were in the $100-500 range, and virtually none of her donors has reached the $2,000 individual maximum — meaning she has lots of room to raise more money if she needs to.
Finally, as I reported earlier, Phil Scott is way ahead of Cass Gekas in the money race. Scott raised $25,000 in the past month for a campaign total of $52,000, while Gekas raised only about $7,500 this period for a meager total of $13,000.
To be fair, Gekas does have a big kickoff event this week. And she told the Vermont Press Bureau that she’s received pledges worth an additional $27,000. Still, she remains a badly underfunded candidate in a race against a very popular incumbent. Maybe Shumlin can let her dig around in his sofa cushions for spare change.
That’s about it from me. Additional comments are welcome below.