All posts by jvwalt

Congratulations to our neighbors to the east!

After the truly terrible 2010 election in New Hampshire that installed a far-right Tea Party supermajority in the Legislature, it was a very good night for Democrats (and women!) across the Connecticut River.

Historic accomplishment: New Hampshire is the only state with a female Governor and an all-female Congressional delegation. Maggie Hassan easily beat Republican Ovide Lamontaigne for Governor, and the two Democratic women — Carol Shea-Porter and Anne Kuster — defeated Republican incumbents Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass.

The Dems have a real shot at gaining a dead-even split in the state Senate, and are making big gains in the House as well. And, of course, President Obama won the state handily. A great night for New Hampshire Democrats, and yet another repudiation of Tea Party politics.  

Morning line: State Senate

The final returns aren’t all in yet — please, Legislature, can we require town clerks to report their returns to the Secretary of State on Election Night? Pretty please? — but it looks like the Dems will hold on to their 22-8 majority in the state Senate, although there are at least three races still hanging.

The Elections Division only has 75% of all precincts — c’mon, Legislature, this is ridiculous! — as of 8:00 a.m. on Wednesday. But here’s how things look in the truly contested races.

Caledonia County: Two seats up for grabs. 20 of 23 precincts in. Will be a Dem/Repub split, with Dem incumbent Jane Kitchel and Repub incumbent Joe Benning re-elected. Former Douglas Administration functionary David Dill, one of the Republicans’ hopes to pick up a seat, is finishing a distant third, and barely outpolling Democrat Stephen Amos.

Chittenden County dogpile: Six seats. Only 16 of 29 precincts in, but the results have held very steady so far. The top six, in order: Ginny Lyons (D), Tim Ashe (D/P), Diane Snelling (R), Sally Fox (D), David Zuckerman (P/D), and Phil Baruth (D). Phil has 10.48% while Debbie Ingram (D) is in seventh place with 8.01%, so barring a huge Ingram vote in the unreported precincts, the incumbents all win and Zuckerman joins the Senate.

After the jump: Up in the air in Essex-Orleans and Franklin.

Essex-Orleans: Two seats up for grabs, and this one’s a nail-biter. 28 of 36 precincts in. Buddy Bobby Starr (D) is first with 6,182 votes. Right now, John Rodgers (D) is holding onto second place with 5,510. Robert Lewis (R) has 5,442. The other Republican, Jay Dudley, is a distant fourth. If the results hold, Rodgers would take Vince Illuzzi’s seat — but right now he only leads by 68 votes.

Franklin County: The two Republican candidates hold narrow leads with 12 of 15 precincts in. Norm McAllister 7,062; Dustin Degree 6,827; Don Collins 6,727; and Caroline Bright 6,460. A late comeback by Collins is still very possible.

Washington County: The three incumbents are winning fairly easily with 14 of 20 precincts in. Bill Doyle (R) 12,426; Ann Cummings (D) 11,051; Anthony Pollina (I) 9,508. Republican Buddy Barnett rode his Vermonter First mailers to fourth place with 7,116.

Windsor County: The Vermonter First effort fizzled here too. Dick Tracy didn’t have nearly enough ammo, and the three Democrats won easily.

Overall, the Dem/Prog majority will, at worst, lose one of its 22 seats, and might still finish with 23. Yet another terrible result for the VTGOP and Vermonter First. And with Zuckerman’s almost certain election, you can add one more to the ranks of the Prog-friendly group in the Senate.  

Driving Miss Daisy to Nowhere

(A sequel to the great 80s film, starring Lenore Broughton as Miss Daisy, Tayt Brooks (International Man of Mystery) as Boolie, and John McClaughry, who showcased his bent for ethnic humor in his star turn as El Jefe General Saturinho Borhorquez, performing in blackface as longsuffering chauffeur Hoke Coburn.)

If Lenore Broughon has more smarts than spite, then she must surely be calling Tayt Brooks in for a meeting today — either a very long one, or a painfully short one. Because the Tayter just burned through something close to a million dollars of Broughton’s fortune with virtually no results to show for it. After that little escapade, Brooks ought to be fired on the spot, and their benighted Super PAC Vermonter(s) First should be shuttered immediately.

Look at the record. Vermonter First spent heavily on negative ads aimed at the Democrats and on behalf of Wendy Wilton, Republican candidate for Treasurer, and also spent lesser amounts for Republican candidates for State House and Senate.

The outcome: Few voters, if any, were moved. Wilton lost badly, the statewide Republicans lost very badly, and the balance of power in the Legislature shifted very slightly at most.

Does that sound like a wise investment to you?

Let’s apply free-market principles here: If you fail at a job, you deserve to get the boot. Hasta la vista, Tayter!

Okay, we’ve had our fun. Now, a look at the reasons for Vermonter First’s complete failure.

After the jump: Bad strategy, bad tactics, bad product, bad salesmanship.

Big dumb money. VF spent big, and spent poorly. It was a classic old-media campaign right out of the 90s (endless TV spots and mailers), plus a new-media effort that consisted of banner ads, which have been shown to be tremendously ineffective. It’s as if Tayt plotted his new-media strategy by consulting a six-year-old copy of “Internet Advertising For Dummies.”

One observer at last night’s Democratic gathering believes that VF could have gotten a lot more traction if it intelligently invested all those Broughton bucks. I can’t disagree. But fortunately for our side, Lenore handed her checkbook over to a clueless hack.

Over-the-top messaging. All the unsubtle negative stuff aimed at the Dems — the $5 billion secret, the government running your health care, all the alleged tax increases — convinced very few voters, if any. After two solid months of hammering, the Democratic margins of victory were unaffected.

I think we’ve reached a point where there’s so much overproduced, overwrought fearmongering in political advertising that it’s just filtered out by the vast majority of voters. When there’s a constant drumbeat of negative messaging that looks like it all came out of the same evil little shop, eventually it becomes background noise. And it doesn’t help if you just double down on the same negative stuff.

Empty messaging. VF’s entire pitch was “Restore Balance”: elect more Republicans because we ought to have more Republicans and fewer Democrats. No positive reasons, no policy proposals, just “There aren’t enough Republicans because Democrats have won too many elections, so please let us win a few?”

That’s not a message. That’s standing on the corner holding a tin cup.

Disrespect for the customer. First rule of sales: make your product appeal to the clientele. Instead, we got blast after blast of AAUGH TAXES OBAMACARE TAXES AAAUGH. I realize that a lot of conservatives live inside their little Fox/Rush/Wall Street Journal bubble, but hell, anyone who’s lived in Vermont for more than five minutes has got to know that most Vermonters don’t buy that shit. If Tayt Brooks was half as smart as he thinks he is, he would have tailored an approach that could draw in centrist voters.

A faulty product. There was a big problem with VF’s “star attraction,” Wendy Wilton. She was an ideologue with a long public record of partisanship pretending to be a technocrat, and trying to paint Beth Pearce, who had a long record of expertise in public finances, as an ideologue pretending to be a technocrat. It’s a lot harder to make an effective pitch when you’re trying to sell the exact opposite of reality.

Plus, Wilton proved incapable of playing the role. She mounted attack after attack, each more nonsensical than the last — the mark of an ideologue. She was also unable to defend her technocratic bona fides under Pearce’s sharp counterattacks. If your product is fundamentally defective, you’re gonna have a hard time selling it.

A house built on sand. (From the Biblical parable.) VF’s impressive pile of advertising had absolutely no foundation. The VTGOP’s complete absence of field organization, grass-roots activity, or get-out-the-vote capability meant that there was no one “closing the sale.” There was no follow-up. There were no personal contacts, door-knockers, phone callers, no neighbors talking to neighbors. VF itself, with its payroll of one (Tayt), couldn’t do that job no matter how many Broughton Bucks it flushed down the loo.

As was well documented by the Vermont Press Bureau’s Peter Hirschfeld, the Vermont Democrats had a huge unseen advantage this year: an unprecedented, statewide, bottom-up and top-down coordinated effort with strong coordination by paid staff and endless hours of work by volunteers. The Republicans had none of that. VF’s campaign was all about the bling and not about the grunt work that actually accomplishes things in politics. Even in our post-Citizens United world.

By way of conclusion. All in all, it was a misconceived effort whose only asset was Lenore Broughton’s checkbook. Lousy strategy and tactics, no support structure, a bad product to sell, bad salesmanship.

So if Broughton is smart, she’s showing Tayt Brooks the door. And Rob Roper and John McClaughry and Jeff Wennberg and Darcie Johnston and and and and. If she wants to actually buy influence with her mattresses full of cash, she’ll have to be more picky with her hiring process.

And we shouldn’t be lulled by the failure of Vermonter First. Another, smarter Super PAC might very well come along. (Bruce Lisman, anyone?) Money remains a potent weapon in politics, but only if you combine it with intelligence.  

Yes, that was a victory speech

Doug Hoffer is indeed our next Auditor. What a change from Tom Salmon!

On the statewide ticket, this puts a bow on a near-sweep for the Dems: Governor Shumlin, AG Bill Sorrell, Treasurer Beth Pearce, Auditor Doug Hoffer (!!!!!), and of course, Secretary of State Jim Condos.

Phil Scott is the only Republican to win statewide office.

A lot of stuff remains outstanding in the Legislature, but it appears certain that the Republicans will not gain much ground and may lose a bit.

Overall, a huge night for the Dems, and a really really bad night for the VTGOP and especially for Lenore Broughton, who spent somewhere close to a million bucks and got basically NOTHING to show for it.

Example: This isn’t entirely apples to apples, but Wendy Wilton is getting 40% of the vote with all those Broughton Bucks behind her. Randy Brock got 37%. So Broughton’s big investment, you could say, netted her 3% of the vote in the Treasurer’s race.  

Election Night Liveblog, 7:00 p.m.

Well, the very instant the polls closed, with no votes officially counted, the News Gods have called Vermont for Barack Obama, and declared Peter Shumlin, Peter Welch and Bernie Sanders re-elected.

Vermont’s the first state in Obama’s column… the first of many to come.

We’ll be live-blogging this joint. Feel Free to post thoughts, news, etc., in the comments below.  

Former Dubie campaign manager continues to do God’s work

A couple days ago we brought word of some clever deception out of Linda McMahon’s Republican bid for U.S. Senate in Connecticut: doorhangers promoting McMahon and Barack Obama. Without, of course, mentioning McMahon’s party affiliation.

Well, Election Day brought Phase 2.

The U.S. Senate campaign of Republican Linda McMahon outfitted its urban poll standers today in purple T-shirts styled after those worn by SEIU, the liberal union that is backing Democrat Chris Murphy.

“It clearly is a rip off of our shirts,” said Paul Filson, the political director of SEIU.

Judge for yourself… after the jump.

McMahon’s campaign manager, of course, is one Corry Bliss, last seen in these parts piloting Brian Dubie’s gubernatorial ship into an iceberg. And last heard in these parts issuing a court-ordered apology for libeling businessman David Blittersdorf during the 2010 campaign. His rationalization for the shirts:

There are thousands of Democrats across the state of Connecticut who are supporting President Obama that are also supporting Linda McMahon today. We want to make sure their voices are heard.

Uhhhh, yeah. Sure thing, Corry. I guess you can’t very well say “Obama’s gonna win this state by double digits, and if Linda has to depend on Mitt Romney’s coattails she’ll lose this thing by nightfall.”  

Let’s get this party started!

You are looking live at an empty ballroom.

Not really live; I’ve just always wanted to say that. This picture was taken around 6:00 p.m. at the Hilton in downtown Burlington, where the Democrats are gathering for their victory party tonight. The only action so far: Vermont’s Giants of Televisual Journalism doing live stand-ups for the 6:00 news. Stewart Ledbetter! Be still, my heart!

I’ll be live-blogging from here, and other GMDers will be passing on their news, reactions, and analysis throughout the evening. Keep it right here!