(Wow. Geeky. – promoted by JulieWaters)
The Legislative Apportionment Board (L.A.B.)has released their newest maps and completely changed the districts for Chittenden County again. While the fundamentals have remained the same, giving Chittenden eight senators instead of six to reflect population growth, the boundaries have been fundamentally altered from both their first proposal and the maps from 2000-2010. While these changes are not necessarily the final words on the map, the legislature has to approve it, they represent enormous change to both the county, the senate delegation.
First, let’s recall what the current map used in 2000-2010 looks like. This map is comprised of Chittenden county, minus Colchester, which was merged into the Grand Isle senate district. From henceforth it shall be referred to as “Old Chittenden.” In 2010, Peter Shumlin won this district by a 53-45 margin. It was an eight point margin, that was six points greater than Shumlin’s two point margin statewide, making the district a D+6 district compared to the state as a whole.
According to that data, if the numbers for the district are run using Leahy’s 2010 victory, we find that he won 69% to 27% (all numbers are rounded, unless specified) with third parties receiving the remainder. Statewide, Leahy won 64-31, a 33 point margin, which is less than his 42 point margin in Old Chittenden. Going by the Senatorial numbers Old Chittenden is a D+9 district. It’s possible that the discrepancy between the Leahy data and the Shumlin data , (D+9 versus D+6) is that Dubie was from Chittenden County (Essex) and had a home field advantage of 3 points. Either way, it’s hard to miss that Old Chittenden is Democratic
This is especially important to remember as all six senators ran in the same districts. These senators, last elected in 2010 are Tim Ashe-D-P-Burlington, Sally Fox-D- S. Burlington, Ginny Lyons D-Williston, Hinda Miller D-Burlington, Philip Baruth, D-Burlington and finally Dianne Snelling R-Hinesburg. This makes for a 5D-1R Democratic delegation, or a 4D-1R-1P if Ashe is considered more of a Progressive than a Democrat. The new lines, as currently drawn not only necessitate either moving, or incumbent on incumbent primaries, but also running in districts that may be far less safe.
More on the flip.
Chittenden West.
This district is comprised of St. George, Shelburne, South Burlington, Williston and Winooski in Chittenden County. Their totals for the 2010 gubernatorial election equal 9,110 votes for Shumlin, versus 8,271 for Dubie out of a total 17,707. This is a 52% victory for Shumlin, against Dubie’s 46.5%. Statewide, this 5.5 margin is 3.5 points greater than Shumlin’s victory, making it a D+3.5. Using the Leahy data, Leahy won 11,660 votes or 69 % to Britton’s 4,956 votes or 29%, giving him a margin of 40 points over Britton. Statewide, this is 7 points greater than Leahy’s 33 point margin, making it a D+7. But what about the Old Chittenden?
They’re actually pretty similar. Remember, Shumlin won the Chittenden district 53-45 for an eight point margin and Leahy won it 69-27 for a 42 point margin. If we make those the numbers baseline for comparing the Old Chittenden to Chittenden West (meaning a margin identical to Old Chittenden is a D+0) then this new district is ever so slightly more Republican. Shumlin won Chittenden West by 5.5 points, while he won Old Chittenden by 8, meaning Chittenden West is 2.5 points more Republican than Old Chittenden, R+2.5. Leahy’s 40 point win in Chittenden West is 2 points weaker than his 42 point win in Old Chittenden, meaning Chittenden West was two points more Republican, R+2 compared to Old Chittenden. All in all, this wasn’t much of a change by the numbers.
Ginny Lyons and Sally Fox are the only incumbents who lives in the district hailing from Williston and South Burlington respectively. Chapter 2, Article 15 of the Vermont Constitution stipulates that a representative must live in Vermont for two years, the last of which is in the district they are running. For Lyons and Fox, this won’t be much of a change, except for more compact campaigning and no longer competing against 10-20 other people. There’s also the possibility of having a district where the senators are Lyons and Fox setting up an unlikely, but hilarious precedent where only those with animal names could be elected in the district.
Chittenden East
Chittenden East, according to the L.A.B. Is comprised of Bolton, Essex, Hinesburg, Huntington, Jericho, Richmond, Underhill, Westford and Buel’s Gore. Thanks to Bruce Post I have been informed ythat a gore is a tract of land that has about 12 people according to the 2000 census. It has not been included in the numbers.
This is a more Republican district, perhaps due to the inclusion of Brian Dubie’s hometown of Essex. Running the Gubernatorial numbers, Dubie won this district by 2.5 points, getting 9,680 votes to Shumlin’s 9,175 votes, out of a total 19,212. The percentages broke down as Dubie 50%, Shumlin 47.5% while third parties accounted for the remainder. In this case, Dubie did 4.5 points better than he did statewide, winning by 2.5, instead of losing by 2, making this an R.4.5 statewide.
Taking the Senatorial numbers, Leahy won 65% to 32%. This is a 33 point margin, which is identical to his statewide victory, although a little off of the actual numbers (65/32 instead of 64/31, a third party probably did particularly weak here). This district is probably the same PVI as statewide, perhaps a little more Republican, but only by a point or two.
It must be remembered that Old Chittenden was 6 points more Democratic than the state as a whole, so while Chittenden East is about equally Democratic as the state as a whole, it is more Republican than Old Chittenden where Leahy won 69-27 and Shumlin won 53-45, making it less appealing for a senator to run in, by the numbers at least.
Unless you’re Dianne Snelling. Snelling has been a senator since appointed to fill her mother’s seat by Governor Dean in 2002 and has managed to win every election, despite Old Chittenden’s Democratic slant. Part of this is explained by how Vermont elects its senators. Rather than having 30 single person districts, where only one candidate is selected, voters between a nadir of one candidate in Grand Isle District and a zenith of six candidates in Old Chittenden. This way of electing senators usually results in a split of the Democratic vote, by having many Democrats run for Old Chittenden’s 6 seats. This vote splitting has allowed Snelling to win time after time. In Chittenden East, with only two seats, not as many Democrats may run, worsening her chances, but the district is less Democratic than Old Chittenden, improving her chances. All in all, it’s a bit of a mixed bag for both Democrats and Republicans.
Grand Isle-Chittenden.
This district was formed by merging the one person senate district of Grand Isle, which includes all of Grand Isle county (Grand Isle, Isle La Motte, North Hero, South Hero and Alburgh) and Colchester, with Milton and Georgia from Franklin County. This has numerous repercussions.
First consider the Gubernatorial data. In this district, Dubie won with 8,714 votes compared to Shumlin’s 5,839 votes, out of a total 14,868. The percentages come out to a 59-39 split in favor of Dubie, which is 22 points better than his 2 point loss statewide and 28 points better than his 8 point loss in Old Chittenden. Good God, that must be so Republican even Leahy lost the district, right?
Wrong. Out of a total 14,616 votes, Leahy won with 8,785 votes, or 60%. Britton meanwhile earned 5,226 votes, or 36% of the vote. This is a winning margin for Leahy of of 24 points, 9 points worse than his statewide totals and 18 points worse than his totals in Old Chittenden making it an R+9 compared to statewide and R+ 18 compared to old Chittenden. Still, that’s a big discrepancy, Dubie won by 20 points, doing 22 points better than he did statewide, while Leahy only lost 9 points, compared to his statewide totals.
There are many different explanations for this. It might be the home field advantage we have seen throughout the totals, but was no greater than a few points. Compared to statewide, Old Chittenden was a D+6 with Gubernatorial numbers and a D+9 with senatorial numbers, not exactly a huge difference. Compared to statewide, Chittenden West was a D+3.5 with Gubernatorial numbers and D+7 with senatorial numbers. Chittenden East was the only other area to have a large discrepancy, R+4.5 versus D+0, but that’s not much of a difference and could be explained by the presence of Dubie’s hometown. Yet Grand Isle-Chittenden is 22 points more republican than Vermont for gubernatorial numbers and nine points more republican for the senatorial numbers.
That’s not the end of the story however. As mentioned, Grand Isle-Chittenden absorbed the one person Grand Isle district, currently occupied by Dick Mazza D-Colchester. Mazza, should he choose to run again, will be running in new territory, in a two person district. To see how his new seat compares to the old, let’s look at his current seat, we’ll call Old Gregg, because, one, it sounds like Grand Isle, kinda and two, after 2 1/2 single spaced pages of discussing numbers, someone needs to throw a freakin’ pie.
Old Gregg is comprised of Grand Isle, Isle La Motte, North and South Hero and Colchester. Running these numbers against the 2010 gubernatorial data shows that Dubie won that seat receiving 4,751 votes to Shumlin’s 3,687 votes out of a total 8,603. The percentages were 55-43 in favor of Dubie, a margin of 12 points and 14 points better than he did statewide. Running the senatorial numbers for Old Gregg, Leahy won with 5,374 votes, out of 8,439 total to Britton’s 2,752 votes. The percentages come out to 64% to 33% a 29 point margin for Leahy, 4 points worse than statewide, making it an R+4.
Again, we see a major discrepancy. Under the gubernatorial numbers, Old Gregg changes from an R+14 to Grand Isle-Chittenden’s R+22, a far more Republican district. Whereas under the senatorial numbers, Old Gregg changes from an R+4, to Grand Isle-Chittenden’s R+9, making it less Democratic, but only by five points, instead of the eight point drop using the gubernatorial numbers.
My theory is that Dubie, as a statewide elected official, in a close race, with money, running for an open, non-federal office was able to appeal to moderates in a way Britton could not, thus explaining the discrepancy.
Let’s also consider who is now able to run for these seats. As mentioned, Dick Mazza, should he choose to run again, can run here. His only problem being that it’s between 5 and 8 points more Republican than his old seat, Old Gregg. That leaves one other seat in this district, that no incumbent senator can currently run for unless they relocate to one of its towns. Baruth, Snelling and Lyons already have races in Chittenden East and West, while Ashe, Baruth and Miller are from Burlington.
Chittenden Central (Or the Mighty-B)
Perhaps the most controversial part of L.A.B.’s last proposal remains unchanged, all of Burlington is drawn into its own two person district. There are many problems with this proposal, to be discussed after the numbers. As to be expected, this is an extremely Democratic district.
The gubernatorial numbers show us that Shumlin won 9,129 votes and Dubie won 3,539 votes out of a total 12,993. The percentages for this are 70.5% for Shumlin and 27% for Dubie. This is a 43 point win for Shumlin, better than his 2 point win statewide and eight point win in Old Chittenden. Statewide, Chittenden Central is a D+41 and compared to Old Chittenden, It’s D+35.
Using the senatorial numbers, we find Leahy won it with 9,891 votes to Britton’s 1,960 votes out of a total 12,560. This is a total of 78.5% for Leahy to 15.7% for Britton. These numbers make for an even more impressive win for Leahy, than Shumlin, a 62.8 point margin of victory, which is 29.8 points greater than statewide and 20 points greater than Old Chittenden.
Leahy’s numbers are actually weaker than Shumlin’s in this sense. Whereas Shumlin made Chittenden Central a D+41 district compared to the state and a D+35 compared to Old Chittenden, it’s only D+ 30 for Leahy statewide and D+20 compared to Old Chittenden. This is likely due to the fact that Leahy superior statewide victory in contrast to Shumlin’s anemic victory. Either way, it’s irrelevant as this is an extraordinarily Democratic district.
Therein lies the problem. As Caoimhin Laochdha mentioned in my last diary, this district is a Democratic and arguably minority, vote dump. By creating a district focused only in Burlington, it has made every other district detailed,, except Chittenden West more Republican. While these two seats are safe, they make it more likely a Republican could win in other districts, especially Grand Isle-Chittenden and Chittenden East.
On the flip side however, it creates perhaps the only district in Vermont where Progressives could win both senate seats. Burlington is the Hub of the Progressive Party in Vermont, with all of their canvassing and voting outreach efforts available to the city. For, perhaps the first time, they would only need to campaign in Burlington, rather than the (near) entirety of Chittenden County, making it far likelier they could win both seats.
Senator Ashe is aligned with both the Democrats and Progressives, but as Chittenden Central is so Democratic in nature, Progressives could slate two candidates every election and have a chance of winning both. There’s little chance of a Republican ever winning, so that negates the concern that Progressives will split the vote and allow for a Republican to win. It’s not inconceivable that between 2012 and 2010, there could be 2 Progressives in the Vermont Senate, both from Burlington. These 2 Progressives out of the 30 total senators would be comprise 6.6667% of the total senate. This is similar in representation to the number of (capital P) Progressives in Vermont, meaning a more representative legislature.
Of course, there is also the Doomsday Scenario. In a Republican year, both incumbent senators could retire, say to run for higher office and Democrats and Progressives could run a combined 8+ candidates on the ballot to replace the retiring senators. Republicans meanwhile would only run two candidates and a with the Progressive-Democratic vote split between 8+ candidates, a Republican could slip through. This is a highly unlikely scenario however, especially as long as Burlington Democrats and Progressives have all seven Chaos Emeralds.
Finally, there’s the matter of residency. Currently three Chittenden County senators are from Burlington, Ashe, Baruth and Miller. There’s also the matter of Senator Philip Baruth and his earning power amongst voters. In the 2010 election, he came in 6th getting 25,179 votes, just above the cutoff mark for winning a seat. In fact he was separated by senate candidate Burlington Councilman and former Mayoral candidate Andy Montroll by only 265 votes. While there’s the matter of 16 people running for 6 seats and the confusion and vote splitting that brings, Baruth appears to be the weakest of the delegation, electorally speaking. Of course it must be noted that he was not an incumbent in 2010, as he will be in 2012 but there’s still the matter of running in a 2 seat district against two other more experienced incumbents Ashe and Miller.
Were this map to be implemented, one senator would lose their seat. This could prompt one of them to run for higher office, such as Lieutenant Governor or Mayor of Burlington, to move, or to retire. All that’s known for certain is that if this map is implemented, only two senators can be from Burlington, a city where three Chittenden County Senators call home.
This map is not final. The legislature still has to approve the map. Given the residency problems, it’s likely this map will not pass in its current form. If it were to pass however, the delegation could potentially (though unlikely) change to a delegation of two Progressive Senators from Burlington, Two Republican Senators from Grand Isle-Chittenden, one Republican and one Democrat from Chittenden East and two Democrats from Chittenden West. This would change a 6D-R1-0P delegation (Counting Mazza in Grand Isle who is effected by all of this) to a 3D-3R-2P delegation.
Works Cited
http://www.leg.state.vt.us/sta…
http://vermont-elections.org/e…
http://vermont-elections.org/2…
http://vtvip.e-cers.com/ballot…
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