The myth of Federal Benefits
It is sometimes claimed that, under the current US Federal Government, Vermont is a “beneficiary state,” that is, a state that receives more in benefits from the federal government than it pays in federal taxes. According to data collected by the Tax Foundation, a private Washington organization that analyzes tax policies, Vermont receives $1.08 in federal expenditures for every dollar that Vermonters pay in federal taxes (based on data for the tax year 2005, a typical year before the current economic meltdown).
However, this number is misleading, because the feds inflict on us not only the ostensible yearly taxes, but also a huge hidden deficit. The income taxes and other taxes we pay are not sufficient to cover expenditures, and each year the federal government runs a deficit, increasing the US national debt. This debt is effectively an extra, deferred tax, which we owe and will have to pay in the future, with interest.
Your generous Uncle Sam, in other words, pretends to give you more money than you pay him in taxes. But he is taking you for a sleigh ride. He conveniently forgets to tell you that all this extra cash comes from IOUs on which he has put your signature. He isn’t giving you his money, but merely your own – and, of course, he pockets some of it.
In its calculations, the Tax Foundation took Sam’s scam into account, but not to a full extent. For Vermont, the actual raw number for the ratio of federal expenditures received to federal taxes paid is $4,645 million/$4,085 million, or $1.14 per $1.00. The Tax Foundation revised this downward to $1.08 per $1.00 by making a correction for the cash deficit, which it treated as an extra hidden tax burden. But the feds incur debts not only in cash received vs. cash expended, but also in “internal” transaction, such as misappropriations of funds from the Social Security and Medicare Trusts, which they divert to other purposes. And they incur even larger debts by the accrual of new obligations to pay for future (as yet unfunded) Social Security, Medicare, and drug benefits.
Rethinking the Scam Numbers
Instead of the minimalist deficit correction adopted by the Tax Foundation, it is more equitable to adopt a deficit correction according to the yearly increase of the gross federal debt reported by the US Treasury (see “Historical Debt Outstanding, Annual” www.treasurydirect.gov), which includes debt from internal transactions of the feds but excludes the long-term debt associated with new obligations for payments of future benefits. In 2005, the increase of the gross federal debt was $554 billion.
The Vermont share of this debt was $1,170 million, if shares are allocated per capita. (To put this in perspective, note that this comes to 1,870 for every man, woman and child.) If we regard this deficit as an extra tax burden, the ratio of federal expenditures to total tax burden in Vermont drops to $0.88 per $1.00.
This shows that Vermont is not a beneficiary state. Vermont is paying for its federal benefits through the nose, or, more precisely, Vermont will be paying through the nose once the IOUs that Uncle Sam has signed on our behalf become due, and the Japanese and Chinese who hold these IOUs ask for repayment, plus interest.
But wait, there’s more!
And that is not the whole story. Many of the federal expenditures within Vermont are not made for the benefit of Vermonters, but merely for the benefit of the feds – many of these expenditures are not grants, but financial transactions involving payments for purchases of merchandise or for services rendered.
For instance, a bit more than 4% of the federal expenditures in Vermont are for the operation of the Post Office. Evidently, postal services are a benefit for Vermont. But we pay postage and fees for these services, and the feds’ expenditures are covered by these payments. For a fair accounting, we must either include payments of postage and fees on one side of the balance sheet and the Post Office expenditures of the feds on the other side, or we must remove these items from both sides of the balance sheet. In its analysis, the Tax Foundation did neither. To fix this mistake, let’s subtract all the Post Office expenditures from the Tax Foundation’s balance sheet for Vermont. When these expenditures are subtracted, the benefit of $0.88 per $1.00 is cut to $0.85.
Millions for “Defense”
Similar arguments apply to expenditures for military procurements in Vermont. For example, if the feds pay, say, $100,000 to take possession of a Gatling gun manufactured by General Dynamics in Burlington, then the wealth of Vermont increases by $100,000. But in the balance sheet, we must also include the fair-market value of this gun as a loss to Vermont. If we reckon the fair-market value of the gun as $100,000, then this sale is a wash. Thus, all such procurement payments are not grants, but compensation for merchandise and services rendered, and they should not be counted when comparing what we give to the feds versus what benefits Vermonters get in the “bargain.”
In fact, all defense payments – procurement, military salaries, civilian salaries, and National Guard grants – should be deleted from the balance sheet, because none are actually for the benefit of Vermont. The feds expend defense funds in Vermont not to protect Vermont, but mainly for geopolitical reasons, to protect and expand the commercial and military empire of the United States – and this is of little concern to an independent Vermont Republic. Defense payments (other than pensions and disability payments) are about 11% of federal expenditures in Vermont, and if we delete all this from the balance sheet, we discover that our benefits amount to only $0.75 per $1.00 of taxes raised.
Income tax in a Vermont Republic
For a calculation of the total income tax that Vermonters would have to pay as citizens of an independent Vermont Republic, let’s assume that we retain all programs and grants now being paid for by the feds with the exception of defense and a handful of minor programs of questionable value (e.g. No Child Left Behind grants, Improving Teacher grants, Homeland Security grants.) Let’s also assume that expenditures on all existing Vermont state programs remain the same. The total income tax to be paid in an independent Vermont Republic is then the existing Vermont state income tax, plus a surcharge that pays for the federal programs that we want to retain.
The starting point for the calculation is the total expenditures by the feds in Vermont: $4,645 million. To see how much of this has to be funded by the income tax surcharge, simply subtract the portions that will be deleted in our Vermont Republic, and the portions that are funded by sources other than income taxes. In millions, these subtractions are: $197 (postal service), $496 (defense), $33 (questionable federal programs), $1,894 (Social Security and Medicare, funded by payroll taxes). Besides, the independent Vermont Republic will be collecting the excise taxes, estate taxes, and duties that now accrue to the feds, which effectively subtracts another $280 from the amount that must be raised from income taxes.
Immediate Savings
The residual expenditure to be funded by a Vermont Republic income tax surcharge is then $1,745 million. This is to be compared with the 2005 federal income tax burden of about $2,200 million placed on Vermont. Thus, the citizens and corporations of the Vermont Republic would immediately save about $450 million in income taxes. This amounts to about 16% of the combined 2005 income tax burden (combined federal and state, individual and corporate).
Furthermore, in the long term, we would save the full amount of the deficit burden that the feds, by hook and by crook, place on us. For 2005, the feds’ deficit burden imposed on Vermont amounted to $1,170 million. In contrast, the Vermont Republic would have no deficit; it would cover all expenditures out of the taxes it collects. The combined total savings in tax and deficit burden amount to $1,620 million!
Lessons Learned
Even without independence, this tax analysis teaches a valuable lesson: the feds are giving Vermonters a bad deal.
And, with the ballooning deficits proposed for 2009, this deal is getting worse and worse. With the bailouts and economic stimulus packages included, the projected deficit for 2009 is nearly $2 trillion (or more than $6,000 per capita). The feds are taking far more from us than what they give back, and they are drowning us in a tidal wave of red ink and burdensome debt. Besides, they inflict on us a muckload of irksome rules for spending what is, ultimately, our own money.
Borrowing a page from Benjamin Franklin’s playbook, Ethan Allen would have told the feds to go fly a kite and get struck by lightening.
What’s our response?
This article was authored by Hans Ohanian and published in Vermont Commons: Mudseason 2009. Dr. Ohanian is an adjunct Physics Professor at the University of Vermont and supporter of an independent Vermont Republic.