I was out of town most of last week, so I hope you’ll pardon a piece or two of catch-up business. Still relevant, I think.
The Progressive Party’s recent state meeting caused a brief flurry of punditic ejaculation on one aspect of Our Little Engine That Could (Maybe)’s future: should they run a candidate for Governor in 2014?
They sat it out in 2012, in support of Governor Shumlin’s stands on Vermont Yankee and single-payer health care. But dissatisfaction grew this year, due to Shumlin’s proposed cuts in programs for the working poor and his obstinate rejection of any kind of tax increase (except, of course for the ones he supported). Plus some disturbing signs that his commitment to single-payer might not be as rock-solid as we thought. Either way, Shumlin is likely to cruise to re-election should he (cough, choke) decide to seek a third term.
So, what’s a Progressive to do?
Here’s one view from a liberal freelance who doesn’t like Shumlin’s centrist and hippie-kicking tendencies.
(And who, in the interest of full disclosure, occasionally finds the Progs too twee and self-absorbed for his taste, but who appreciates their existence and wishes them well.)
The Progs have been in rebuild mode since hitting (what appears to be) an electoral glass ceiling in 2008, when Anthony Pollina narrowly beat out a very weak (sorry, Gaye) Democratic candidate, but still finished way behind Jim Douglas. The party turned its attention toward the grass roots, concentrating on legislative races. Which was the best thing to do. And it still is. And it’s a solid argument for staying the course, sitting out the 2014 gubernatorial elec Shumlin coronation, and aiming toward a full statewide ticket when the party is strong enough to have a significant impact.
On the other hand, the arguments for running a Prog in 2014 are (1) to keep Shumlin honest and remind him not to take the Progs for granted, and (2) to have a Prog voice in the campaign, and particularly in the debates. Both good arguments.
But is it worth diverting resources and, possibly, sacrificing a candidate who might be truly viable in two or four more years?
I’d say no.
After the jump: my reasoning, and the promised punditry FAIL.
If I were King of the Progs, the only way I’d run a sacrificial lam candidate for Governor is if I could find someone who (1) has a decent public profile already, to lend a veneer of credibility to a very longshot candidacy, and (2) is willing to run as a low-budget figurehead.
(Unless, of course, Bernie Sanders decides to open up his bank vault and actually, y’know, tangibly help the party whose colors he used to fly. Bwahahaha.)
But the Progs with a high enough profile (Anthony Pollina, Tim Ashe, David Zuckerman, Chris Pearson) already hold elective office and would be better served by staying there. As would the party.
So again, I’d say no, no Prog on the 2014 ticket.
2016 maybe; by then, Shumlin will have a longer track record to support or oppose — most importantly, by then it ought to be clear whether we’re still on track for single-payer or not. By then, the Progs ought to be a stronger party with higher-profile leaders. Also, 2016 carries a low risk of a Prog splitting the vote and tipping the race to the Republican because (1) it’ll be a Presidential year with a strong liberal turnout, and (2) the VTGOP is likely to remain a basket case.
And now, I note a punditic personal foul committed by our friend, Paul “The Huntsman” Heintz.
In recent days, he has twice addressed the Progs’ Predicament. Before the statewide meeting, he posted a piece entitled “Should A Prog Run for Gov? Nope.” In it, he laid out the reasoning against a Prog run in 2014.
And then, a couple weeks later, he listed the Progs as Losers in his weekly roundup of winners et al:
…The Vermont Progressive Party seemed no closer to pulling the trigger at a state committee meeting last weekend, according to Seven Days’ Kevin J. Kelley. If they can’t or won’t run in a year when the Democratic governor’s taken a sharp right-ward turn on fiscal issues and the Vermont Republican Party has nearly imploded, what good are they?
Oooookay, let’s recap. On one hand, the Progs are ill-positioned and lacking an obvious candidate for 2014. On the other, if they don’t run in 2014, they’re useless cowards.
In the words of Walnuts McCain, “That’s not punditry you can believe in.”
that 2014 is probably not yet the year to challenge Shumlin (much as I wish it was.)
I’m of the “give him enough rope” persuasion and agree that he hasn’t quite hung himself yet.
Why waste resources on a mere demonstration race when a winnable one can realistically be expected before very long?
On the other hand, if Shumlin doesn’t get religion really quick, he’ll be well advised to look for a new job in 2016; and maybe that is precisely what he has in mind.
He certainly seems to be courting an audience outside of Vermont as he tacks right to the center.
He seems well positioned to become the darling of the tax cry baby/liberal tokenism comfort class that gave Howard Dean his shot.
If I recall correctly, there is some minimum percentage of votes needed in a statewide election in order to remain a major political party, yes? If I’m not completely mitaken, they must get 5%(ish) of the vote in a statewide race in order to remain a major party. (Please correct me if I’m wrong.)
If they have to pick one statewide office for which to field a candidate, the gov race provides the largest megaphone.
Shumlin (and Dean/Snelling before him) clearly represents an electorally huge majority of VT voters. We want managers we can trust to govern in a center-left fashion. We’d rather have trusted managers than the particulars of any political persuasion.
Until a Progressive has the statewide chops to present themselves to the public as the best managerial alternative, it’s hopeless. Continually running hopeless campaigns brands a party as non-serious…and shaking the “perennial loser” label can take a long time.
So, the answer is to focus on the legislature and Auditor type offices to build the trust that is necessary for Vermonters to vote for someone…so I heartily agree with jvwalt.