Usually, I get an unbridled kick out of saying “I told you so” when one of my fearless forecasts actually comes to pass. But this time, I have decidedly mixed feelings. Because it means a lot of suffering for our most troubled citizens, not to mention a significant policy error by the Governor and a whole lot of hard work for some talented and dedicated professionals.

Yesterday, the legislature’s Mental Health Oversight Committee received an avalanche of bad news about the creaky, overstretched, jury-rigged system. It shows a real crisis in the short term, and the flaws in Shumlin’s grand plan for the long term.

And yes, it’s exactly what I predicted a year and a half ago, when Shumlin was ramming his plan through the legislature.

To get the full picture, you have to read both VTDigger and the Freeploid; each highlighted different aspects of the dismal tidings.

Digger’s Andrew Stein focuses on the fact that patients in need of urgent psychiatric care are being parked in hospital emergency rooms for days at a time. Last month, the average ER wait time — the average — was more than two days. The longest was almost two weeks. The reason: a shortage of beds for people with severe psychiatric illness.

We lost roughly 50 beds when the Vermont State Hospital closed. The chronic shortage is proof that we either need a central hospital of equivalent size or, at the very least, an equivalent number of beds throughout a decentralized system. Neither will happen under Shumlin’s plan.

After the jump: a flawed partner in Brattleboro, and musical chairs at the DMH.

The Freeploid’s Nancy Remsen (behind the Gannett paywall) opens her story with the potential consequences of Shumlin’s reliance on the Brattleboro Retreat. The feds have threatened to withdraw their funding if the Retreat doesn’t shape up, and the primary trouble spot is its handling of the most seriously ill patients — the ones who would have gone to VSH in the past. Remsen:

Termination of the Retreat’s Medicare and Medicaid contracts would not only challenge the financial viability of the psychiatric hospital, but potentially throw the state’s entire mental health system into crisis if the Retreat had to close.

The Retreat has had a checkered history in financial management and quality of care; the Shumlin administration chose to place even more faith — and a whole lot of Irene recovery money — in the Retreat’s hands. That may prove to be a mistake.

As to whether there are contingency plans, Interim Mental Health Commissioner Frank Reed said, “We are pulling a work group together.”

Let’s pause here and take note of the “Interim” tag on the Commissioner’s title. Frenk Reed is the fourth person to occupy that office during the four-plus years of the Shumlin Administration. And when Paul Dupre takes the job on July 1, he will be the fifth.

Five commissioners. During a time when the system has been in crisis, and needs a firm hand on the tiller. Makes me wonder if Shumlin’s stubbornly-held idea of a decentralized system is unworkable. Or so damnably difficult that Mental Health Commissioners are falling like dominoes.

Shumlin’s much-vaunted reorganization is aimed at providing more outpatient crisis care and more “step-down” recovery services. But this doesn’t really do squat for the very small but persistent number of Vermonters who need one thing, and one thing only: inpatient treatment. Proof: even as the administration begins to open new facilities, ER wait times continue to grow.

The worst part of all this? Key lawmakers are still hoping to build the new system on the cheap. From VTDigger, a quote from Interim Commissioner Reed and the legislative response:

“We still have bed shortages. And until we have the new hospital built with 25 beds, we’re going to continue to have a bed shortage for acute inpatient care.”

… But legislators are considering outfitting the 25-bed Berlin hospital with 16 beds at first.

[Sen. Sally] Fox and [Rep. Anne] Donahue said that they don’t have enough information yet to determine that the state needs the facility to operate at full capacity, and the committee plans to wait until November before making a recommendation to the Legislature as to whether to equip the facility with 16 or 25 beds.

Oh. My. God.

If the current, wretched state of things isn’t enough to convince the Legislature of the need for a full build-out in Berlin, then I don’t know what is. They can’t possibly be looking at what’s best for our most troubled Vermonters; instead, they’re trying to save a few bucks.