Until this year, there was plenty of evidence that, whatever you think of his policies, Governor Shumlin was a skilled politician. He navigated his way to the top of the State Senate; in 2010 he won a highly competitive Democratic primary and beat a well-funded Republican opponent. In his first term, he laid the groundwork for the nation’s first single payer health care system and showed a lot of leadership in the wake of Tropical Storm Irene.

He sailed through the 2012 election, and entered 2013 with huge majorities in the Legislature. The opposition parties were scrambling, not for power, but for mere relevance.

But since the first of January, the Governor appears to have lost his political instincts and his powers of persuasion.

Let’s start with his January 24 budget address, which included several proposals that landed with a thud: slashing the Earned Income Tax Credit, imposing a lifetime cap on Reach Up benefits, and a new tax on break-open tickets.

It’s hard to imagine that an experienced pol like Shumlin couldn’t have foreseen that, and couldn’t have done some advance work. Make his case to the leadership, pave the way for his big plans. Instead, lawmakers were taken by surprise.

In the months since then, the Governor has left little or no room for compromise: barring any consideration of additional revenue increases and insisting that his plan for welfare, child care and education is an indivisible package. His public argument has consisted of repeating the same talking points over and over again. And if there’s been any backstage maneuvering, it’s been singularly unproductive.

After the jump: a pair of last-minute Hail Mary passes.

Now, as the Legislative session is nearing its end and Shumlin’s plans are foundering in the House and Senate, the Administration finally unveils revised proposals — allowing precious little time for lawmakers to consider them.

On Monday, the Administration scaled back its plan for an EITC cut and the break-open ticket tax, in a presentation to the Senate Appropriations Committee that VTDigger described as “not in the spirit of compromise, but in the tone of an executive branch issuing orders.”

Nice.

And then on Wednesday, the Administration offered a revised Reach Up plan, replacing the five-year cap with a flexible program of sanctions that penalize recipients who don’t stick to their job-search plans. As VTDigger reported, key Senators are not happy with the switcheroo:

Members of the Appropriations Committee expressed concern that they’ve received a rash of radical policy tweaks just days before they are expected to finalize the budget.

Sen. Sally Fox, who sits on the Health and Welfare Committee as well as Appropriations, believes the new plan ought to go through both — but acknowledges there’s not enough time. And advocacy groups have had no chance to offer their input.

All of which leaves me with a series of questions.

Is the Governor trying to piss off his fellow Democrats? Does he think that persuasion is unnecessary, and that when he whistles they’ll come running?

Has his attention been diverted by his new duties with the Democratic Governors Association?

At any point in the last four months, when his strategy clearly wasn’t working, did he ever consider changing course?

How much of his political skill was actually the work of Alex MacLean and others who’ve left his camp for more lucrative pastures?

In the grand scheme of things, this year’s tax-and-spending debates have been at the margins of the state budget — relatively small adjustments to a very large package. There are tougher battles on the horizon. The 2015 budget is going to be another tight squeeze, the first phase of health care reform will be going online, and Shumlin will have to reveal the specifics of his single-payer reform plan — including a big new tax structure.

Which leads to one last question: if he’s done so badly this year, how’s he going to do when things really get difficult?