I’ve had a lot of fun at the expense of Angry Jack Lindley, the chair of the Vermont Republican Party. And I’m sure I will continue to do so. But I have some sympathy for old A.J., and I certainly wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

The last time Lindley was chair of the VTGOP in the late 70s and early 80s, it was a proud institution that still held the Governorship and two of Vermont’s three seats in Congress. Then, in early 2012, he was pulled out of pasture and put in charge of a party with no resources and an acute charisma shortage (see: Brock, Randy, and McMullen, Jack).

And out of a sense of partisan duty, he basically agrees to become captain of the Titanic when it’s a half-mile from the iceberg. The bad decisions had already been made by his predecessors, and his hands will be on the tiller when the ship inevitably sinks. No wonder the guy goes nutzoid once in a while.

Not to mention that while his party crawls across the desert, it is surrounded by securely fenced oases. The $5,000,000 in Romney Bucks parked in the VTGOP account; the bulging purse of Lenore Broughton, tightly shut to Angry Jack but wide open to the superPAC Vermonters First. As for the loyal Vermont conservatives who used to bankroll the party, where have they gone? I don’t know, thanks to the unconscionably primitive state of Vermont campaign finance reporting.  

But I am not here to bury Angry Jack, nor to praise him. My purpose is to assess the immediate future of the VTGOP, a party with no resources and an acute charisma shortage (see: Brock, Randy, and McMullen, Jack).  And a party that has tacked sharply to the right, despite the fact that the balance point of Vermont politics is clearly center-left.

I’ve asked the question before. Why has Randy Brock run a campaign right out of the Ethan Allen Institute playbook? Why make health care denialist Darcie Johnston the highest-paid political operative in Vermont? Why hire out-of-state campaign consultants known for their work for Tea Party candidates? Why develop policies on advice from the likes of El Jefe General John McClaughry and baby faced free-marketeer Tarren Bragdon? Why bring in Maine Governor Paul LePage for a big fundraiser, only to have his evil shadow linger over the campaign like the stench of a cheap cigar?

Why all of this, when Brock’s only real chance was to run as a tough-minded, non-ideological technocrat?

The answer, it now seems clear: Lenore Broughton.  

Well, not necessarily Miss Daisy her ownself, but what she represents. She and her ilk are the moneybags of the contemporary Republican Party, and they want the GOP to keep tacking rightward. And it’s only by sucking up to the Broughtons of the world that the VTGOP can hope to get the money it needs to stay competitive.

Problem is, that takes the party even farther away from the Vermont electorate.

Second problem is, it’s not working. Brock’s not attracting any national money. (Or pretty much any money, for that matter.) And while Broughton’s making it rain, there’s nary a drop to be found anywhere near Brock or the VTGOP.

Okay, big picture. Most of the races are all but settled. Phil Scott’s the only statewide Republican candidate who’s a strong favorite. Vince Illuzzi’s got a decent chance at Auditor, like it or not (and I don’t). The political observers tell me the Treasurer’s race is competitive; I don’t buy it. I think Beth Pearce will keep her post.

So. Here’s something I’ve pointed out before: if Scott is the sole Republican winner, then the party’s obvious leader and #1 gubernatorial hopeful will be a conspicuous  moderate. (The same holds true if Illuzzi joins Scott in the winner’s circle.) The VTGOP leaned hard to the right this year, and is likely to come out of this election at an historic low: no money, a tiny minority in the Legislature, and uncompetitive at the top of the ticket.

Meanwhile, you’ve got Vermonters First and Lenore Broughton, with much deeper pockets than the party itself, urging the party ever rightward. The Vermont Republican Party, only two years removed from the Douglas Era, will be a shell of an organization. Its top elected official (and, ahem, the electorate) will be on one side, and its deepest pockets on the other.

This looks like a tug-of-war with a feeble Republican Party pulled in both directions. That is, assuming that Phil Scott really is a moderate. So far in his political career, he’s been able to play Mr. Nice Guy without having to make the tough calls. He’s the ideal Lieutenant Governor, really; but what happens when (or if) he has to take a role of partisan leadership? Does he try to pull the party back to the center, which he knows, from his own experience, is the best location for a Republican victory? Or does he pull a Mitt Romney and become a born-again conservative?

You never know in politics. Too much success an make a party complacent — or even corrupt. The Dems could very well get fat and lazy, and create openings for the VTGOP. But the Republican hierarchy will have to get creative to take advantage of any Democratic missteps. They’ll have to be willing to jettison the Fox News/Rush Limbaugh line, abandon any hope of attracting far-right funders, and fashion a new Republican Party based on managerial efficiency rather than conservative dogma. Phil Scott will have to become a true leader, instead of a guy who organizes charity drives and does other people’s jobs for a day.

I don’t really see any of that happening. I think the party leadership is too wedded to dogma. I think they actually believe the stuff. And until I see evidence to the contrary, I don’t thin Phil Scott is capable of taking charge, fighting political battles, and leading his party out of the wilderness. He’s certainly shown no sign of it so far.

In any case, Vermont Republicans will have plenty of opportunity to assess their situation and consider the alternatives. God knows, they won’t have to worry about doing any governing anytime soon.