As anyone who still subscribes to the Free Press has observed, in its new tabloid format, familiar features have been shifted to accommodate the USA Today brand of journalism-lite. Bits of news and opinion appear bundled together under headings like “Innovate”…which is where I found two articles that would have formerly been carried as “Opinion,” now represented in the “Innovate” section as “Creative Corner” and “How We’re Doing.”
Annoying.
The first piece (“Creative Corner”?) asks “Is Vermont politically risky as an emerging market?” It was written by one Allison Kingsley, an assistant professor of Management at the University of Vermont School of Business.
More about Ms. Allison’s effort later, but first a few words about the only other piece on that page (“How We’re Doing”) penned by a familiar name from the now defunct Vermont Tiger, Assoc. Prof of Economics (also at UVM) Art Woolf.
As usual Mr. Woolf attempts to extrapolate from whatever data happens to be convenient, that Vermont is in a terrible economic state when compared with the rest of the nation. Except that…it isn’t.
In this particular instance, Mr. Woolf employs a familiar modelling error in order to make his point. The headline is alarming:
“VT. government employment outpaces other states.”
Accompanied by one of those suspicious bar graphs that attempt to make small differences between quantities look much larger by dramatically increasing the slope per increment, Mr. Woolf argues (as he has so many times in the past) that Vermont has too many “government employees” serving its population, in relation to other states.
As per usual, Mr. Woolf fails to account for both the better outcomes in Vermont than in other states; and for the fact that our small but highly dispersed population immediately requires more teachers to serve that population, and more government service interfaces for the same reason.
Ms. Kingsley, in her article, keeps insisting that she is “new here” and seems to concede that maybe she doesn’t know what she’s talking about. I agree with her on that score alone, and wonder why the Free Press would represent Ms. Kingsley’s piece as anything other than “Opinion.”
in tandem with Mr. Woolf, Ms. Kingsley seems to make the case that Vermont is bad for business because the public is too invested in their government and regulatory system. To wit:
Groups with ideological agendas have strongly felt preferences, tend to leverage public pressure effectively, and typically focus on politically salient or “hot” issues. In Vermont, anecdotal evidence suggests that businesses largely confront interest groups distrustful of the private sector and hostile to business interests. Environmentalist and anti-growth groups opposed the Circ-Williston highway proposal that IBM advocated. Walmart battled VNRC and buy-local groups for 18 years in St. Albans. Employee unions fought Fletcher Allen. VPIRG and NEC confronted Vermont Yankee and Entergy.
She suggests that the “problem” with Vermont is the fact that “one party” (may we assume she means the Democrats?) dominates in the statehouse and in the administration…by virtue of the fact that they were elected to do so! So, perhaps DC-style gridlock would be preferable?
Once again, Ms. Kingsley’s arguments are defied by the facts.
Vermont’s regulatory brakes are generally acknowledged to have spared the state from the worst effects of the collapsing real estate bubble; and current economic indicators suggest that not only is Vermont an attractive place to do business, but incomes are actually rising here at a faster rate than almost anywhere else in the country.
Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin observed about his Republican opponent, Randy Brock in Wednesday’s WDEV radio debate, that he seems not to want to embrace the positive indicators for the state.
Shumlin criticized Brock for ignoring the state’s assets and the many positive signs about the economy. He quipped that Brock seemed to be running to become “pessimist in chief.”
The same could be said for Mr. Woolf and Ms. Kingsley, both of whom seem determined to find fault with an environment which, on the whole, seems to be working rather well.
In Art’s piece, he provides more ammo for those of us who have dubbed him Vermont’s Laziest Economist:
Uh, he’s comparing Vermont to “the other 50 states.” So, Distinguished Professor Art Woolf thinks there are 51 states.
Nice work, Art. Did you check the rest of your math just as carefully?
Yeah, I read Kingsley’s diatribe and found it to be more of the extreme right’s “the sky is falling” doomsday rhetoric that we hear time and time again. Ms. Kingsley said several times during her missive “I don’t know.” For an awfully smart woman (on paper anyway) she hasn’t yet learned that its normally best to keep ones mouth shut until one does know. Perhaps Ms. Kingsley should pack up her right wing behind and move on along to somewhere like Texas or Alabama where her brand of no tax, no regulation garbage would receive a more favorable welcome.
I recently attended an entrepreneurial event run by a group called IdeaMensch. They’ve been interviewing entrepreneurs all over the country for a couple of years, and are currently doing a 48-contiguous state tour. Burlington has been, hands down, the best experience:
http://www.freshtrackscap.com/…
From my notes:
Will Rapp, founder of Gardener’s Supply had this to say about business in VT:
Even Richard Tarrant, well known for dissing Vermont from a right wing anti-tax perspective, couldn’t really bring himself to jump on that bandwagon. I guess having a successful, growing startup makes it hard to claim that you can’t succeed in Vermont. This is the worst he managed to dish out:
Cairn Cross, of Fresh Tracks Capital, a Venture Capital corporation based in VT says they’re:
As a matter of fact, Fresh Tracks appears to have a very positive outlook of Vermont’s business environment. From their writeup of the First Annual Startup Vermont Conference:
Perhaps Ms. Kingsey ought to get out into the community and talk with the people who are actually partaking in Vermont’s vibrant start-up community before drawing conclusions about its health.
Hasn’t Vermont’s unemployment rate run about 60% of the national average for the last 20 years? What am I missing?
Yeah, so?
It’s like an acquaintance I know who complains that legislators get free parking near the state building.
‘How dare they get free parking that the rest of us have to pay for? If I park there I get fined and even towed away! Who do they think they are that they get to park near the state building?!’
Where are they supposed to park? How are they supposed to get to work?
So when some far-right extremist says, “VT. government employment outpaces other states”, I say, “Yeah? So what?” I simply do not find that to be an outrageous scandal that I am expected to get worked up over.
Via Andrea Cohen, Executive Director, Vermont Businesses for Social Responsibility: