Which is more influential: an ex-governor’s public endorsement, or the incumbent’s tacit one?

Everybody knows that Howard Dean is all for Attorney General Bill Sorrell’s re-election. Dean has made public appearances with Sorrell, he cast an early ballot with Sorrell, he voiced a campaign ad for Sorrell. No surprise; Dean and Sorrell go way back, and it was Dean who parachuted Sorrell into the AG job way back when. Indeed, Sorrell is by far the most prominent remnant of Dean’s tenure as governor.

Which raises a question. Two, actually.

First, how influential is Dean’s backing? I personally don’t know. It’s been a long time since Dean was an active participant in Vermont politics, having positioned himself almost entirely as a national political figure since his abortive run for President in 2003-04.

So, the quesiton: do people in Vermont care about Dean anymore? I might also ask, did they ever? I didn’t live here during the Dean years, but I do recall that he governed from the center (even more so than Peter Shumlin), often angering liberals and Progressives with his tight-fistedness.

Feel free to answer that question in the Comments below. And now my second question: is Peter Shumlin tacitly endorsing Sorrell’s opponent, TJ Donovan?

I should make it very clear that I have no inside information. I’m simply observing events and interpreting them through my sometimes-befogged spectacles. I shall, however, present my admittedly circumstantial evidence after the jump.

When you do a Google Images search for “Peter Shumlin” and “TJ Donovan,” you realize how often they’ve been in pictures together this spring and summer. Donovan’s almost like Zelig, appearing over and over again in the background at Shumlin pressers. The most notable occurrence was in late July, when Donovan showed up at Shumlin’s presser about “bath salts” in Barre. Which isn’t anywhere near Chittenden County, last I checked.

The explanation, according to vtBuzz, is that Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon (who has endorsed Donovan) invited TJ. Okay, all right; but I’d think that the Governor would have some say over who gets to share a podium with him when the cameras are clicking.

And the Governor certainly didn’t go out of his way to invite the Attorney General to an announcement of a state ban on bath salts. State law, attorney general, hm?



There have been plenty of other photo-ops as well. This one is from a May presser in which Shumlin praised Donovan’s rapid intervention community court program. To be sure, the Guv refused to endorse TJ’s run for higher office, but he did hold a public event with the guy.

And then there’s the Jim Deeghan case. I may be revealing my blissful ignorance of the law, but is it entirely normal for a case involving a state employee accused of defrauding the state to be handled by a county prosecutor? Donovan’s been all over the Deeghan thing. Sorrell? Nowhere to be seen. Hell, even Tom Salmon’s gotten a chunk of the Deeghan pie. But nothing for the Attorney General. I call that curious.

Indeed, I don’t recall a single occasion this year in which Shumlin and Sorrell have been in the same frame. I could be wrong, and probably am; but they certainly haven’t been photographed in nearly as many high-profile situations as Shumlin and Donovan.

Now, I don’t expect anything close to an overt endorsement from Shumlin, not before the primary. And if this diary prompts a reporter to ask Shumlin about the AG’s race, I’m sure he’ll deny that he has any preference at all.

But me, I see quite a bit of circumstantial evidence, and I think Peter Shumlin wants a new AG.

And I think that’ll hold more sway in next week’s primary than any $99,000 ad campaign voiced by our beloved ex-Guv.  

11 thoughts on “Which is more influential: an ex-governor’s public endorsement, or the incumbent’s tacit one?

  1. I’m hoping for Senator Dean when Leahy retires, but I dont weigh a Dean endorsement much in a statewide race. He’s a great national voice though.

  2. You said, “Indeed, Sorrell is by far the most prominent remnant of Dean’s tenure as governor.”

    I would argue that it’s Dr. Dynasaur.

  3. and I rather liked his opposition to using lotteries as state fundraisers.

    But I didn’t agree with his position on medical marijuana.

    In general though, he was a “centerist.”  It is good to remember this from time to time because it makes me a little less irritated with Shumlin.  When Dean hit the national stage, we finally saw how progressive he was compared to the rest of the pack.

  4. It doesn’t influence me very much; it would be telling if he didn’t support Sorrell. It’s nice to see loyalty in politics occasionally. (Full disclosure:  I’m for Donovan…I want someone to hold state police and the Hartford police force responsible for their reprehensible behavior).

    Dean was a fine governor. His electoral majorities (in the mid-60% range) are a testimony to how well he resonated with the wide range of VT voters. This site is not likely to represent most voters’ feelings towards Dean, as he had a very rough relationship with many Progressives.

  5. Without weighing the relative influence/ popularity of Dean vs. Shumlin, the impact of current strategy seems pretty clear to me.

    Dean going out making TV ads, mailers, robocalls (presumably coming soon), campaign appearances, emails, etc on behalf of Sorrell is going to have much more impact than any possible silent support of Shumlin for Donovan.

    In what will inevitably be a low turnout primary, that kind of high profile and ubiquitous hammering home of a pro-Sorrell message by Dean is going to reach and influence a lot more voters than some Kremlinesque attempt of insiders to read something into how close Donovan is standing to Shumlin at some presser.

    If Shumlin really wants to see Donovan defeat Sorrell, he won’t make that happen without being quite a bit more clear about his intentions.

    Wrapping himself in Howard Dean may, in the end, be enough for Bill Sorrell to turn around and win a primary that a few weeks ago I was fairly certain he was going to lose.  

  6. If your knowledge of Howard Dean starts when he became DNC chair or when he was running for president you probably think he was a liberal.

    If you remember when he was governor you know that he was not only a moderate, but a conservative who sparked the growth of the Progressive Party.

    I always enjoy his reference to the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, although I would enjoy it more if he would credit Paul Wellstone when he says it.

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