At the risk of tumbling headlong into the Bottomless Pit of Hubris, allow me to present Vermont’s first piece of post-election analysis. Yeah, election day is still three months in the future… but I’m comfortable in predicting a second consecutive catastrophic defeat for the Vermont Republican Party. Which gets me to wondering, what happens after November 6?

The VTGOP continues to have severe money woes (no paid party staff, remember?). It has even resorted to money-laundering for the Mitt Romney campaign in return for a badly-needed $20,000 a month, which should allow them to pay the rent and avoid the embarrassing fate of the Minnesota GOP.

And it has joined the national GOP’s sprint to the far right, giving prominent roles to the likes of El Jefe General John McClaughry, Darcie Johnston, and babyfaced menace Tarren Bragdon, among other unnamed, presumably even more embarrassing, luminaries. It invited Maine’s tea party Governor Paul LePage (R-Asshole) for a high-profile fundraiser. Meanwhile, Randy Brock is burning through his campaign cash at an unsustainable rate, lavishing the green stuff on Johnston ($48K in less than six months) and his right-wing out-of-state campaign advisors.  

To top all of that, it’s assembled a pathetically weak statewide ticket and a humiliatingly short list of candidates for state House and Senate that will doom them to at least another two years of political irrelevance. The only prominent Republican likely to win is Mr. Ceremonial, Lt. Gov. Phil Scott. The next most likely Republican victor is Vince Illuzzi. A statewide win by any other Republican would be a huge upset; the third most likely Republican winner, Wendy Wilton, has developed a bad case of Financial Deficiency Syndrome, which is fatal to most campaigns.

At best, the Republicans might retain the Lite-Governorship and the Auditor’s eyeshade and win a few more legislative seats — but not enough to significantly dent the Dems’ overwhelming majorities.

(Please understand that Im not predicting an Illuzzi win, nor have I given up hope for Cass Gekas. I’m simply putting out the Republicans’ best case for 2012, just to illustrate how far up the creek they truly are. So please play along with me, if only for a moment.)  

In this scenario, the VTGOP would be a profoundly weakened party with no financial resources to speak of. It would be far to the right of Vermont’s political mainstream. At best they would have only two political figures of any significance. And both of them are self-professed moderates who like to stay on good terms with Dems and Progs.

What will they do?

If they had any sense, they’d dump the right-wingers and the free-market fundamentalists and return to the voter-approved moderation of their past (and of Phil Scott’s present and future). But sense is a rare commodity in Republican circles these days.

Should they insist on their right-wing course, they’d be ignoring two consecutive trips to the electoral woodshed. And effectively downplaying the leadership roles of their two most prominent figures. You’d think that the VTGOP would grab onto Phil Scott with all the enthusiasm of a drowning man clutching a flotation device. But then, I vividly recall that when Tom “Short Attention Span” Salmon made his exit from Vermont politics, VTGOP chair Jack Lindley was effusive in his sorrow:

It was always my dream that Tom would follow his dad and become governor one day.  …Vermont Republicans have lost a future leader.

Apparently ignoring Phil Scott, the guy who’s obviously best positioned to regain the Governorship for the VTGOP. (In favor of a guy who was a lifelong Democrat until less than three years ago, and was never able to muster any sustained enthusiasm for his job as Auditor.)

For that matter, what would Phil Scott and Vince Illuzzi do? Keep their heads down, ply their own trades, and try to ignore the rightward tilt of their own party? Or take their leadership role seriously, and try to move the VTGOP in a more sensible, moderate direction?

Which would require Phil Scott to take a courageous, principled stand. Something he’s never really had to do, as he’s risen through the ranks by dint of good works and warm fuzzies.

Does the VTGOP have a brain? Does Phil Scott have a pair? We’ll find out after the November election.