Late yesterday we learned that Mike Bertrand had quit as Executive Director of the Vermont Republican Party after a mere five months on the job, and that for three of those five months, he apparently wasn’t paid because the party’s coffers were empty.  

This prompted some reflection in GMD-land, a hearkening back to past predictions of a bleak future for the post-Jim Douglas VT GOP. In January 2011, when the party had (a) just lost the governorship and (b) completely missed a huge national Republican tidal wave, one of us wrote these words:

The Vermont Republican Party is in as bad shape as any major political party I’ve seen. There’re no two ways about it.  

… It was through Dougla’s single-minded interest in his own re-election that the Vermont Republican Party withered under his watch, as it gave little support to legislative Republicans and candidates.

After the jump: Warnings against Democratic complacency, and portents of an ugly new VTGOP.

Last fall, GMD saw Bertrand’s hiring as a recycle, an echo back to Douglas days rather than a step into a new Republican future. And now that he’s left the building, the VT GOP is in the hands of Jack Lindley — a recycle, not to Jim Douglas, but to the days of Bob Stafford. Good grief.  

In October 2010, in a GMD diary naming “up and coming Republican stars,” the first name was Phil Scott. Okay there. But after that? Jason Gibbs, former Douglas flack who was about to lose the race for Secretary of State by almost ten percentage points. Gibbs is now the flack for Ski Vermont, where he is, I’m sure, trying not to think of global warming while casting a weary glance at our sun-baked slopes.  

Also mentioned was Michael Dubie, who’s made no visible move toward politics so far.  All of this makes a 2007 GMD diary sound even more prescient:

Under the guidance of recently departed Chair Jim Barnett, the Republican legislative races were allowed to dry up and blow away while all attention and energy was spent protecting Governor Douglas and pushing some of the other, big ticket statewide races. The result is a dearth of talent in the short term, and few rising stars on the horizon.

Which is at least as true today as it was then. For all his own electoral success, Jim Douglas was a failure at building a party. A year and a half after his exit, its coffers are empty, its leadership is aging, and its statewide ticket is likely to be filled with retreads and no-hopers.  

So, it’s all good for the Democrats, right?   Well, no. I see three things to worry about.  

First: the natural tendency to get complacent. The Dems dominate state government and our Congressional delegation. That kind of success tends to foster laziness at best and corruption at worst. So far, the top Dems have seemingly done a good job of, well, doing their jobs, and making government work.  

The second concern: that Governor Shumlin will echo Jim Douglas’ failure to build his party. GMD, January 2011:  

Shumlin could easily fall into that trap, and the Vermont Democratic Party could atrophy if it becomes exclusively tasked to his re-election. If so, that too could change the playing field. For my money, though, I’m betting Shumlin is too smart to give into that impulse.

Let’s hope. And the third concern: if the VTGOP is an “empty shell” at the start of a campaign season, then others will fill the vacuum. The high-profile advocacy groups Campaign for Vermont and Vermonters for Health Care Freedom are far more active, and much better financed, than the Vermont Republican Party or its (retread) candidate for Governor, Randy Brock.  

The Dick Snelling/Jim Jeffords Republican Party is long gone. It’s obvious that the Jim Douglas “smiley face conservative” GOP is on life support at best. The door is wide open for an influx of corporate cash (into those independent groups if not the party itself), which could create a new VTGOP in the Fox/Rove/Koch model of expensive, dogmatic Mortal Kombat.

It’s unclear how well such a party would fare in traditionally moderate Vermont, but it would certainly have a lot of money in its corner, and it would certainly make our politics a whole lot meaner and nastier.