A couple days ago, I set the Over/Under on Bernie Sanders’ re-election at 68%. A pretty high standard; the only time he’s gotten more is when he trounced Karen Kerin for Congress a few years back. My thinking was that his newly-declared opponent, John MacGovern, would be a pushover.
On further reflection, I have a feeling this could turn out to be an expensive, nasty race. I still don’t think MacGovern has a snowball’s chance of winning; he’s far too right-wing for this state, and he’s unknown outside of Windsor County. (His name recognition there consists of getting his butt handed to him in two bids for State Senate.) But I now believe he might do more damage than I initially thought.
See, his professional schtick for the last ten years has been the Hanover Institute, an outlet for right-wing Dartmouth alumni to criticize (and file suit against) the current administration. A non-profit outlet, donations to which are tax-deductible. Mr. MacGovern has raised an astounding pile of money for this endeavor (as much as $800,000 a year), and presumably made himself a lot of wealthy friends.
With his expertise in bogus nonprofits and his contacts among the One Percent, I could see him setting up a 501(c)4 — a bogus nonprofit “voter education” committee whose real purpose is thinly-veiled electioneering. We’ve already got two big 501(c)4’s operating in Vermont: Bruce Lisman’s Campaign for Bru– er, Vermont — and Vermonters for Health Care Freedom. These 501(c)4’s offer tax-deductible status to their donors, and they operate virtually in the dark; the requirements for reporting donors and expenditures are astoundingly lax.
This is an obvious way for MacGovern to leverage his contacts into political muscle. And while he can’t possibly defeat Bernie, he could make it a really dirty, messy, unpleasant campaign. So, on second thought, I’d bet on under 68%,
In an era when Sheldon Adelson can turn Newt Gingrich into a viable candidate, Foster Friess can pluck Santorum from the electoral trash heap, Peter Thiel can keep Ron Paul’s candidacy alive with 2nd and 3rd place finishes, and Frank VanderSloot can help Romney outspend his competitors by 6 to 12 times, don’t underestimate the power of the Big Green alums to give a rouse for one of their own, “Lest the old traditions fail,” as the Alma Mater says. With money, persistence, message discipline and a vision, the conservative contingent of the Dartmouth alumni has almost taken over one of the nation’s premier educational institutions. Seems like a U. S. senate seat could present an easy target – even Bernie’s seat.
I don’t think you need to worry about Mac the Knife. My friends in Windsor say he has less than the snowball’s chance. And I think Bernie ran against a guy with a few bucks once before. Sen. Tarrant, I presume.