Bernie Sanders Re-election Over/Under: 68%

Late add: I’ve corrected a mistake in this post. MacGovern was not a Congressman from Massachusetts; he was a State Representative. Big difference.

(For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, an "Over/Under" bet is placed on a particular statistical outcome in a game. Not on the winner or loser, but on some aspect of the game. The classic football "Over/Under" is on the total number of points scored, but it could be on the number of touchdown passes by a quarterback, the number of home runs in a baseball game, etc. In this case, you'd be betting on whether Bernie will get more or less than 68% of the vote. Handicapping info below.)  

Well, well, the Republican Party has a new champion who will take on the Ungentle Giant of Vermont politics, Sen. Bernie Sanders. The plucky guy is John MacGovern, a Dartmouth alum and former four-term State Representative in Massachusetts.* Seven Days' Andy Bromage has written an overview of his resume, which I recommend reading. But I'll fill in a few items here.  

*We should stipulate here that MacGovern doesn't have a stranglehold on the nomination. VT GOP Executive Director Mike Bertrand told Bromage that there's at least one other person considering a Senate bid. Methinks Bertrand is hoping for a somewhat bigger fish; it never helps a party ticket to carry dead weight.  

After the jump: Stirring the Dartmouth pot, and heading a decidedly opaque nonprofit.

MacGovern now lives in Windsor, VT. He's run for State Senate twice and lost twice. His occupation: he runs the Hanover Institute, a nonprofit organization that is…

dedicated to educating Dartmouth College alumni about important events at Dartmouth.   We will focus primarily on those events that tend not to be covered in the official Dartmouth College and Dartmouth Alumni Office publications.

 

The Institute advocates a stronger voice for alumni in Dartmouth's governance. This has been a casus belli among conservative alums for quite a few years now; they believe that Dartmouth has gone soft and squishy in a number of ways. The Institute has filed two lawsuits against Dartmouth, in an effort to boost alumni representation on the Board of Trustees. A 2009 article in Dartmouth Alumni Magazine describes him as…

 

An activist who for years has railed against a College administration he views as undemocratic and secretive, MacGovern funds lawsuits against the College through an organization that is all but opaque, as he enigmatically declines to reveal just how much of his enormous war chest was donated from non-alumni sources.

That's putting it mildly. The Hanover Institute was founded in 2002, and its fundraising has mushroomed since then. In 2007, it raised over $800,000 and spent almost that much.   MacGovern is its sole employee and operator. The Institute's 2007 tax form shows a salary of $63,500 and other compensation of $31,750. The bulk of the Institute's spending, almost $702,000, was for "Publication of Newsletter. Inform Dartmouth Alumni of important elections at Dartmouth College."  

I've never run a publication, but that strikes me as a hell of a lot of money for a newsletter. Wonder how much MacGovern gets paid for editing, writing, and publishing it.  

As for his platform as a candidate for Senate, MacGovern appears to be focused entirely on the deficit — with one exception. He's also upset over the birth control mandate in President Obama's health care plan, which he calls "a full frontal assault on our religious liberty."  

To which I can only say, Mr. MacGovern, you have never experienced a full frontal assault on religious liberty.  

Okay, back to my prop bet. Bernie Sanders has a recent history of walloping no-hoper Republicans. In his initial bid for Senate six years ago, he won 65% of the vote against Rich Tarrant. In his last four elections for Congress, going backwards, he took 67.5% (against Greg Parke), 64.2% (against Bill Meub), 69.2% (Karen Kerin), and 63.4% (Mark Candon).  

So I'm setting the bar rather high. If you take the "over," you're betting that Bernie will come close to, or exceed, his highest vote total ever. But frankly, it's hard to see Mr. MacGovern as any better a candidate than those other guys. And unless Mike Bertrand pulls a mighty big rabbit out of his hat, it's hard to see Bernie getting much of a run this year. I suspect the VTGOP's real priorities are elsewhere.  

(Disclaimer: Betting-related information is for entertainment purposes only. We do not condone gambling, nor will we be a party to any such thing.)  

2 thoughts on “Bernie Sanders Re-election Over/Under: 68%

  1. independents & swing voters at the very least. I don’t see them jumping Bernie’s ship. Bernie managed to get the VT salt-of-the-earthers. Anyone who smacks of a religious idealogue in VT will have tough sledding.

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