Is the Vermont Republican Party Relevant Anymore?

It’s a serious question (if admittedly hyperbolic…).

Small minorities in both legislative bodies. No “Rs” aside the names of our federal delegation. Yes, there are two GOP-ers with statewide offices, but one of them is notoriously flaky, and gearing up to commit political suicide with a doomed run against the popular incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders. He’ll likely be replaced by a Democrat in the Auditor’s office because the Republicans have almost no political bench after the years of attrition and decay of their legislative caucuses.

That leaves popular new Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, who is a strong political force to be sure, but part of the reason for his broad appeal is the perception that he’s a moderate, even liberal Republican.

And who is arguably the most powerful Republican in the state today? That would be close ally to Governor Shumlin and Senate President Pro Tem Campbell, Kingdom Senator Vince Illuzzi. What kind of a partisan Republican is Illuzzi? Well, let’s see, he endorsed Democrat Peter Welch for Congress and is close to many of the Vermont unions…

The Vermont Republican Party is in as bad shape as any major political party I’ve seen. There’re no two ways about it.  

If this were 2013 instead of 2011, it’d be easier to talk about rebuilding, but coming off a mid-term national GOP wave that completely missed Vermont leaves us looking towards the inevitable pendulum back during a presidential year, which always brings out more Ds to the polls.

For Republicans, they have a real branding challenge. Defining themselves is going to be next to impossible. In fact, they’ll be left to define themselves as alternatives when Shumlin screws up – which is going to be tricky because he’s probably not going to screw up – at least not in any way that they’ll be able to use. Early signs are that he’s going to feel freer to piss off the left than the right and the center, figuring he can keep liberals onboard with a full-on push to single-payer healthcare. That won’t help the Republicans.

The bottom line for the GOP, then, is that if Shumlin proves to be the kind of ideological eclecticist he’s looking to be, defining him reactively and using that definition as an elections platform is going to be a miserable failure.

A lot can happen, obviously. Being so firmly in the drivers seat will cause Democrats to begin fracturing – that’s human and political nature, and it could change the playing field. Perhaps more dangerous is if Shumlin decides to be the same kind of party leader that Jim Douglas was. It was through Douglas’s single-minded interest in his own re-election that the Vermont Republican Party whithered under his watch, as it gave little support to legislative Republicans and candidates.

Shumlin could easily fall into that trap, and the Vermont Democratic Party could atrophy if it becomes exclusively tasked to his re-election. If so, that too could change the playing field. For my money, though, I’m betting Shumlin is too smart to give into that impulse.

19 thoughts on “Is the Vermont Republican Party Relevant Anymore?

  1. “The Vermont Republican Party is in as bad shape as any major political party I’ve seen”

    To which I say, thank the various gods you may believe in!

    Even Maine voted in a corrupt TeaBircher whose first act in office was to hire his daughter to a $40K+ job for which she has ZERO qualifications.  His sole shtick seems to be to ‘piss off the liberals’, so it makes no difference to the Maine Republicans voters that he has every intention of willfully mis-managing Maine’s economy into oblivion – as long as that pisses of the imaginary Liberals!

    Shumlin has made some incredibly smart moves and comparatively few boners – so far.  He is amazingly politically astute.  I am eager to see how he does running the state through the upcoming hard times that were intentionally brought on by the Republican Party, both state-wide and nationally.

  2. The facts you set out are true. However, after the 1964 Golwater disaster  and after the election of Obama it was predicted that the national GOP would go away. It did not turn out that way. Right wing nuts seem to have an amazing  way of reviving themselves.  

  3. Replace Shumlin with Obama and dial back a few of the dates and I’d swear I’ve read this “the Republican party is in bad shape” diatribe before.

    I’m not disagreeing with the analysis, rather I’m hopeful that the outcome in a few years will be dissimilar.

    I said “hopeful”. Ha. Ha. Happy New Year!

  4. Well, no, the VTGOP ain’t going the way of the Whigs.  Marginalized for now and maybe the near term, but there’s, like, this pendulum, probably swinging because the political process never stops, nor does the hubris of individuals and parties, or their learning and adapting…

  5. I am truly sorry, but I am compelled to remind people

    that the Republicans will never be totally irrelephant in Vermont.

  6. I wonder if Shumlin, and the Dems, won’t find their future challenges from the left, in particular the Progressive Party.

    The most telling thing you note above- for me- is the notion that Shumlin will feel free to piss off the left more than the right or center, figuring single payer will keep the left in line.  Close observers (specifically of Shumlin’s economic stances) know he is far more of a ‘centrist’ than a (small p) progressive.  He talks great talk- often, anyway- yet at the end of the day he seems far more of a “markets guy” than anything resembling a (Bernie) Sanderista.

    Obviously Shumlin’s commitment to single payer is a clear exception- though one could argue either that it’s a politically shrill move more than anything; or that it’s merely a brilliant economic move, as the state (and municipalities and school districts) would save massively from a universal health care system- potentially saving Shumlin a lot of nasty work in balancing the budget without raising taxes (as he’s pledged he will somehow do).

    While I’d have to agree that accomplishing single payer health care would easily give Shumlin a re-election, possibly even two, there are plenty of signs that point to the fact that he’s not interested in throwing the left/progressive’s many bones at all- most of his cabinet appointments being centrists, conservatives, and even Douglas lackeys.

    It’s not hard to imagine the left and progressive community(s) of Vermont getting fed-up, quickly, with a Governor Obama Shumlin.  Dean’s reign, lest we forget, pretty much propelled the Progressive Party into existence.  Strengthening the Progs, if VT conservatives see little hope/electoral chance in GOP candidates (local or statewide) a number of them could very well vote for a strong Prog candidate in hopes of creating a counter-balance to Shumlin’s power, and could even do the same in a gubernatorial election as well.  The Progs have proven to be capable of earning the support of a certain number of traditional GOP voters- if such voters see the GOP has no shot, they could easily jump ship.

    In 3, 4, 5, 8 years there is a very real possibility that the VT GOP will be more of a third party in the vein that the Progs are today, and the Dems could be our “rightwing”, facing continual electoral challenges from the Progs on the left more than anything else.  Now, is this likely?  Given the lack of historical precedent, we’d have to say no.  But your points above about the VT GOP’s weaknesses, especially in an election year in which nationally the GOP carried the day, strongly, are not moot.  Shumlin, and most of the statewide VT Dem leadership for quite sometime, have been decidedly “conservative” Dems, especially when it comes to economic issues.  I don’t think one would have to be merely a cynic to wonder if some of the Dem leadership’s social liberalism is founded more in electoral opportunism rather than progressive commitment.  That’s more of a question than a statement of fact- but, I think, a legitimate one, looking at the Dem leadership since Dean.

  7. thank God.

    Marginalized to the point of irrelevance it will take a seismic shift of some sort fueled by voter wrath such as what put Obama in, & will now likely take him out.

    Ethan Allen Club closing a sure sign if anyone needed one. This was partly due to not enough young ppl coming in. No revitalization, as in ‘new blood’ is death to any entity, also showing the politics of the youth in VT.

    “The most honorable thing to do was to close down quietly and gracefully.” Ya think?

    http://www.burlingtonfreepress

    It is not as much ‘conservatism’ in & of itself, but an Ayn Rand brand which reresents nothing more than unmitigated greed, willing to destroy anything in its path, which seems to prevail. Those who follow this type of ideology are animals & nothing more. Their enablers, er, ‘supporters’ are the conservative regions of the state which are in fact the poorest. They do not seem to see the correlation nor expect anything of these cads, though many of them simply do not accept the leftist agenda of the Dems & Progs.

    That Douglas & likely Dubie would completely screw the entire state, this means small business, elderly, working poor as well as middle class from every angle possible (any one of which would have been crippling enough) to not only fatten the already fat hogs w/a tax cut??? And then dump burden of balancing the budget also, indicitive of humanity’s worst element. This showed what a purely cold & calloused individual Douglas actually was & rips the ‘nice guy’ mask off of Brian Dubie as well.

    Also reveals what is expected of their fellow VTers by the tiny few of the most wealthy. The spirit of old-man Potter is alive & well, but voted out & marginalized.

    McClaughry & the rest of the rightwing cabal whose distorted op-ed pieces designed to misinform VTers, I may skim but do not even read. It is disturbing to watch the machinations of the deceitful & disingenuous. It always turns out to be simply more of the same overcooked, canned, mushy & ideology-laden fare. Hot lunch comes to mind. Distinctive odor was nauseating & still is.

    Vermont Tiger is no different & complete waste of effort, though it serves to inform us of the next direction their failed missteps will lead them.

    Many conservative VTers voted Dean in year after year & probably would have continued. Bernie also never could have made it to where he is w/out them. This shows that even conservative-to-moderate VTers recognize the VT Republican leadership & party as a toxic version of conservatism.

    Since it is the types of Republicans in VT that is the biggest problem, this will not change any time soon. They are their own worst enemy which is why I expect nothing to change & am quite pleased to watch them self destuct so that the rest of the state can plan a sustainable future of prosperity which benefits all VTers, since they have failed so miserably.

     

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