Few things in the state are pure politics. It’s all too small-scale and personal to be that simple. That’s why it could be reductive to look at the surprising invitation from Almost-Governor Shumlin to Almost-Lieutenant-Governor Phil Scott to join his administration’s cabinet. But for purposes of analysis, let’s look at the politics of the offer.
Shumlin knows that he has to move into his first term expecting and planning for a re-election run against Scott as his challenger (who is no doubt feeling the squeeze from local and national Republicans to pit his popularity and appeal against the new Democratic chief executive while he still may be vulnerable, before the full power of incumbency settles in). Reaching out to Scott in this way is a savvy move to set the tone of the relationship, and is a political win-win for Shumlin, whether Scott accepts the offer or not. If Scott accepts, it’s going to be that much harder to run against Shumlin if he had his hand in the decision making. If Scott rejects the offer, he looks to be more interested in partisan obstruction than cooperation. Either way, he’s writing Shumlin’s campaign themes for him.
And even if Scott is not the challenger, Shumlin is still invoking the same electoral dynamic with his invitation, given that Scott is now the top dog of the Republican Party regardless.
On the other hand, Shumlin just made life a lot harder for the Democratic Party’s effort to take the office. It was already hard to imagine which Dem would step up to run against Scott in 2012 without Shumlin commenting that he is “incredibly bright, capable, dedicated, we’ve worked together well in the past and I need him on the team”. If it’s to be Shumlin’s modus operandi to kill a Scott challenge to his re-election with kindness in this way, he may well end up functionally campaigning for Scott’s re-election as Lieutenant Governor.
One of the main reasons why there are such strong Democratic legislative majorities in this state is that, during the last decade, Jim Douglas largely steered the Vermont Republican Party to focus on his re-election at the expense of focusing on local elections. In this way, the current Democratic Statehouse dominance is part of his legacy.
As the functional head of the Vermont Democratic Party, Shumlin is going to face the same decisions on how to manage his Party and what the greater, long-term implications of those decisions will be.
First, I think this is absolutely brilliant on Shumlin’s part.
But I also think it does serious damage to Scott with the wingnut side of the Republican party. If Scott actually joins the Shumlin administration and works with him, it makes it hard for him to function well within the Republican party and may cause a primary challenge. If a strong Democratic candidate (any of the ones who ran for governor this cycle would qualify) ran for lt. gov, this may make Scott more vulnerable.
The way I see it is that if Scott rebuffs Douglas, he sets himself up as a jerk and alienates a lot of moderate Vermont voters. If he joins Douglas, he sets himself up as someone who doesn’t stand by his principles, and alienates the more right wing voters. I see this as lose-lose for Scott and very clever on the part of Douglas.
And should he rise again after his near victory,Shumlin gave Dubie the same treatment with his invitation to be VT’s outreach fellow to our Canadian neighbors.
your analysis. However the overriding factor will always be the economy for the majority of voters.
Every election, voters tend to ask if they are better off overall since the cndidate took office & were promises kept.
If Shumlin, legislature & his team steer VT from from Douglas ruinous agenda, ‘Jim = Jobs’, a campaign slogan & nothing more, by creating a climate for the type of jobs and/or businesses VT needs it will be a great success.
Must also include ending the subjugation of VT by Entergy which was engineered by Douglas. This means closing the plant on schedule on or before 2012 even if sold (I highly doubt this will happen) & continuing to lead VTs energy independence.
A republican win would then be doubtful as these things would not only galvanize the base but even pick up moderate & conservative support of those who voted for Dubie since results are what voters see.
… the part about Scott looking partisan, obstructionist, etc., if he declines. I doubt anyone would fault him for saying that he looks forward to working with, appreciates the offer, yadayada, BUT that he is, and remains a Republican; that he would prefer to see the state in Republican hands, and that he wants to preserve an independent Republican POV. Heck, I wouldn’t hold it against him if he said frankly that he WANTS to be governor, and would rather run from his new office than from a Democratic administration. Unless you hold the position that politics is dirty and that it’s dishonorable to admit you want to hold public office, there is no shame in saying frankly that you want to be where Shumlin is now.
But I DO think it’s brilliance on Shummy’s part.