There’s a message in the 2010 elections in Vermont that is surprisingly not being truly talked about. In the days following the election, political analysts and newspapers repeated the very real point of the elections that Vermont “was just about totally immune from the wave that swept the country“, according to Chris Graff, former journalist and political commentator (VT Digger: GOP Losing Ground in Vermont). While it’s true that Vermont elected a democratic governor for the first time in eight years, and the “supermajorities” of both Houses were returned to the Democrats, the concept that the Republicans and Tea Party activists in Vermont made no substantial ground is unfortunately wrong.
For example, take the one senate seat that was lost to a Republican. In Caledonia county the race was defined with two democratic incumbents, Senator Jane Kitchel and Senator Matt Choate. Senator Kitchel came in the race as a heavy favorite, but her freshman colleague, Senator Choate, was seen as potentially losing the seat he won two years ago. For their opponents, Charlie Bucknam and Joe Benning each had felt like they would have a chance at knocking off Senator Choate and were hoping to high hell that they would manage to take Senator Kitchel’s seat. And they would have, if it wasn’t for that meddling Bud Otterman.
Two years ago, longtime House Republican for the Caledonia-Orange 1 district lost his race to a political newcomer. Not content with spending nearly 40 years in public service, the popular former Representative, Harvey “Bud” Otterman, decided to run as an independent for the Caledonia senate. In his run, he muddied up the waters a bit. Democrats felt like they had a better chance since a popular, kitchen-table name had jumped in on the center-right vote. Whatever happened, town-by-town, the hopes were dashed. Bud Otterman’s campaign was a blessing in disguise, but it wasn’t as effectual as it was hoped. Jane Kitchel won re-election by four-hundred or so votes, (the now Senator-Elect) Joe Benning took second place by edging incumbent Choate out by 137 votes, who beat Charlie Bucknam by only 215. And where is Bud Otterman in all this? Dead last, of course. His campaign never had the energy behind it that the other campaigns had (not to mention, the Tea Party support from the same group in Orange county that hosted statewide candidates like Len Britton, Paul Beaudry, and Ken Stern), but being dead last saved the leading democratic candidate, Jane Kitchel.
When all the votes were certified, Bud Otterman came in with 1,798 votes. It is not unrealistic to imagine that the votes an extremely popular former Republican like Otterman received were siphoned off of the republican candidates. Had Otterman not run, Caledonia county could have very well seen the rise of two Tea Party republicans, not just one.
Unfortunately, this isn’t a lone situation. Although they didn’t take very many seats, the Tea Party and Vermont’s “new” GOP (or whatever it is, it isn’t the Snelling/Jeffords GOP that used to exist in New England), isn’t dead. It is far from dead. Yes, a state as blue as Vermont re-elected a legislature that is truly blue, and while the state did elect a democratic state Senator as governor (only so, in my opinion, five-thousand votes isn’t a huge margin), there are signs in the state that show that the GOP and the TP aren’t dead, but one election does not a pattern make, so I guess we’ll have to see what 2012 brings for our tiny state.
(By the way, I do know that this example only extends itself to Caledonia county, I’m currently pouring over the results posting on the Secretary of State‘s website for other examples, but I might have to wait until recounts are done to be sure.)
Now: Nov. 2010
Vtdigger
Then: Nov 2009
http://www.vermontbiz.com/arti…
in VT included secession, did it not? If so, this is not an issue germane to most VTers so does harm in that it adds ingredients to the mixture which do not blend well.
Though I appreciate & understand some of the sentiments of Tea Party, being independent I cannot follow an uncertain path & direction. The far rightwingers such as Dubie & Douglas seem to follow an Ayn Rand philosopy which passes for conservatism but is in fact unmitigated greed as evidenced by their policies, who they represent & it is not most VTers.
I believe Shumlin would have won by more if it were not for the continual drumbeat of sound bites which were misleading, fallacious & distorted the truth which fortunately came to naught.
Everyone is not a news junkie, or have the stomach for the political scene, my husband despises it, so many rely on information they gather which is readily available.
Dubie campaign schooled him in the art of dirty dishonest political gamesmanship, to speak in sound-bites to provide ammo for their arsenal in campaign of deception @ ea debate & question asked of him.
I’d like to say ‘they were a bad influence’, however he is an adult who knows right from wrong. Honest ppl cannot be surrounded by these types nor forced to behave in a way which is different from their true character. We have choices, ethics revealed by what we choose.
Likewise, images of Shumlin from throughout the campaign are still fresh in my mind. Sitting there @ table w/Dubie as Dubie stood there in command-attack dog mode channeling Joe McCarthy declaring he ‘had a list’ during a debate, patiently sucking it up.
It is obvious what out of staters think of VTers by the sh** they shovel in our faces which also includes Entergy & propaganda machine.
It has been said ‘if you want to test someones honesty-give them power’. We did, he flunked.
A nice posting Tim…appreciate the thoughts on the TP influence and the mini-Republican pushback we had in the Caledonia Senate. I wanted to share a bit of information since I felt some judgments rendered in the comments here weren’t entirely accurate. I hope this adds to the discussion and illustrates how important it is for voters to get out & VOTE!
I have been saying from about mid-July to the end of the campaign that I encountered a great deal of voter apathy this time around. The negativity around the Gov’s race as well as the negative mood on the national scene turned a lot of voters off from coming out on Tuesday. Turnout was barely 50%. I lost over 500 votes in St. J alone and another 400 in Lyndonville. These votes didn’t go to the R’s – they just weren’t there. In fact, both Charlie Bucknam and Joe Benning had significantly LESS votes than John Hall did in 2008 when I defeated him.
Otterman being in the race saved Senator Kitchel’s butt as those 1,800 votes would have likely gone disproportionately to one of the R’s and in a tight race it would have cost her a seat too.
As to my ground game…the only thing I didn’t do this campaign vs. 2008 was door-to-door as my job prohibited it timewise. I was at every event, parade, and forum imaginable. I certainly was not resting on my laurels – I knew it would be a tough race and I also knew voters were not going to turnout to vote…both predictions were right on. I did beat Senator Kitchel in 5 towns and was in 2nd place in 7 more of the 23 towns. As expected, Lyndon was the worst to me (it’s where Joe Benning lives); Waterford and Danville were tough and my margins in both weren’t bad but the margins in the winning towns weren’t high enough to offset them.
Mr. Benning’s 135 vote win was certainly far from a mandate and if I choose to run again in 2012 I hope to have more help with the ground game – it was sorely lacking in this cycle as was overall interest in the campaign from my perspective. A great campaign needs more than just a dedicated campaigner – it needs HELP, MONEY (also very hard to raise this past cycle), and an engaged electorate. All 3 were very limited this election & hence the result.
Let’s hope for better in 2012!