Nobody’s calling this one yet, but it’s starting to look like a real mathematical and demographic stretch to imagine Dubie erasing the deficit.
So let me be the first to call it for Shumlin. If I’m wrong, I’m only a blogger, right?
But I’m not wrong. It’s a new day in Vermont. The Jim Douglas/Brian Dubie era is all but officially over.
are the only, and I mean only, bright spots of the night. Our state will be its very own sanity rally.
It’s not a great night to be a Democrat, but it is a wonderful one to be a Vermonter. At least we can start getting things back on the right track, even if the rest of the country doesn’t want to join us.
You not “only” a blogger, you’re an angry partisan blogger, right?
shumlin up 51%-49% with 99% precincts in
http://greenmountaindaily.com/…
…with 232 out of 260 precincts reporting…
Shumlin , Peter Dem 103,317 49%
Dubie , Brian GOP 100,232 48%
Should I be biting my nails? I don’t know which precincts haven’t yet reported, and what percentage of the population they represent.
but I couldn’t bear to wake up to a Dubie administration. It’s kind of like not being able to sleep soundly on a plane because you have an irrational impulse that it’s only your consciousness that keeps the damn thing in the air.
With 94.4% in, and Shumlin with a 4,494 vote lead, Dubie would have to win a full 2/3rds of the remaining votes to win this thing, which seems damned unlikely. What’s still plausible is that he could request a recount (though it may still not be close enough for that once the remaining 5.6% of the vote is counted). If the remaining 5.6% is all the early voting ballots (which I think is the case but I’m not 100% on), then that lead is likely to expand.
If you go here – http://blackpearl.wcax.com/Ele… – to the WCAX site, the only large town left to report is two of the four Rutland precincts. Brian got about 55% of the vote in the other two precincts – less than Douglas two years ago. These numbers will close the gap a bit, but won’t put Brian ahead.
Otherwise there are a dozen+ small towns – the biggest Charlotte – left to report.
it seems crazy, it doesn’t show the totals for the state… and for each precinct it only shows the winner, the percentage he won by, and the total votes. you have to do some high school algebra to figure out the totals for the state…. or paste it into a spreadsheet
surely there must be a better site that shows the totals?
CNN.com is way behind, only showing 76% of the precincts reporting.
one thing I don’t get… why would CNN have a different number of precincts reporting for the different races? when a precinct reports, don’t they report all their data?
At 8:00 AM they show two (2) results for Rupert! Identical numbers but Dubie wins Rupert in one and Shumlin the other. It’s a very small number, but which is it? Their website has done weird things all along. Last night for at least an hour, all the towns that Shumlin carried were shown as having been carried by someone named O’Connor (presumably the person entering the data? who knows?)
…was at the Rutland Herald-Times Argus live blog. They did a very impressive job and used their info to hold up the headline so that it was the more accurate, “Shumlin Appears To Edge Out Dubie,” rather than the BFP’s, “Too Close To Call.”
And that was where all the excitement about Cabot was, too. It APPEARS (note qualifier, please) that the Cabot Town Clerk pitched a hissy fit, saying if the votes weren’t counted by 10 pm, too bad — she would lock ’em in the vault and finish counting them in the AM as there was no reason SHE had to stay up late. (Given that votes are counted by a GROUP of people, ALL of whom stay up late, and that this event only occurs once every 2 years on a date certain known well in advance, it does rather boggle the mind, yes?)
Word was that Deb Markowitz was on the phone to her trying to get her to understand just what her job entailed — must have worked as results were posted.
Looking at the unreported towns at http://blackpearl.wcax.com/Ele… a few things stand out. First, Newfane, Windham and Calais are among the unreported towns that will likely go heavily for Shumlin. Still 2 Rutland districts unreported, probably in the Dubie column. The rest are mostly tiny towns. Still looking good.
Nationally, CO and WA’s Senate seats are still marked as too close to call, but the county data for CO on the NY Times site shows a pretty wide distribution of votes, unlike WA, PA and IL where only the bigger cities (and the coast in the case of WA) went for the Dems. and the rest of the state is dark red on the map. Rough times ahead…