UPDATE 10:33: I know the numbers are looking rough on WCAX, but I’m cautiously optimistic. Looking at their town-by-town breakdown here, it looks to me like Dubie isn’t doing strongly enough in the key Chittenden ‘burbs like Essex and Williston to offset Shumlin numbers yet to come in. Also, the numbers that they are reporting in Burlington are a pittance compared to what they should be. Not sure how they’re reporting these.

Good god, what the hell am I doing? I wasnt gonna live blog this.

---

Sitting here at the Dem Party in Burlington.

Y’aint missin’ much. Nobody here knows nuthin, neither.

In truth, there are early positive signs and early negative signs about the Governor’s race. I’m cautiously optimistic. VPR has a good website with results, but nobody seems to have everything. They also have towns they have identified as bellwethers, which seem to be (barely) trending Shumlin, but I strongly question their choices. If towns like Jericho and Bristol go Dubie, it’s likely that the state will, but the reciprocal is not necessarily true.

Interestingly, my own analysis suggested that Dubie needed to take his home town of Essex by 60%, and according to vtdigger, he’s come in at 59%. That’s just too close to have any sense of anything, even if it does technically meet my personal definition of encouraging.

In any event, if today’s polls stay within 1 or 2 points either way, I think Shumlin takes it from what was a superior early vote effort. So stay tuned.

Several people coming up to me introducing themselves and telling me how much they like GMD. That’s a really nice thing to hear.