(promoted, with an image adjustment so as not to bust the margins. Check out the full graphic analysis at http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/vermont. – promoted by odum)
23 thoughts on “New VT Governor poll/forecast from 538”
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to the original post from the New York Times
That’s a pretty big drop from 80% chance to 54ish.
GOTVGOTVGOTV.
And HONKNWAVE!
The 80% estimated probability of Shumlin’s winning in the 538 projection from September was based primarily on one Rasmussen poll. That probability should have been viewed cautiously because of the many problems associated with Rasmussen’s polls.
The most recent estimates on 538 are based heavily on last week’s VPR poll, so it’s no surprise that the numbers on 538 are very similar to those in the VPR poll.
The VPR poll was based on land-line phone users only. The pollster from Mason-Dixon who conducted the survey was on VPR’s Vermont Edition last Friday and talked about what he saw as logistical and technical problems with including cellphone-only users in political surveys. Last week, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press issued a brief research note about the political effects of not including cellphone-only users in polls. Their conclusion is that not including cellphone-only users may result in a Republican bias of 4 to 6 points.
While Vermont probably does not have as many cellphone-only users as the nation as a whole, Shumlin might have done better (but perhaps still at the upper edge of the poll’s margin of error) had cellphone-only users been included in the survey.
Question for those doing phone canvassing for the Shumlin campaign: Do you have lists of cellphone numbers to call, or are all your calls going to landlines? If you can’t reach the cell users by phone, what other GOTV tactics are used to get those voters to the polls?
I work on the coordinated campaign. We do have some cell phone numbers to use, but certainly not the cell phone of every registered Democrat. Get-Out-The-Vote will indeed win or lose us the election. Which is why, if you want to help win this election, you should go to: http://www.vtdemocrats.org/vol… and contact the Field Organizer in your county. (Note: It’s not listed, but I’m organizing a new field office in Springfield for those of you who live in southern Windsor, and I can be contacted at: (802) 730-4732).
Thanks.
The trends are: Cutting edge leadership and most visionary candidate being traded for status quo dysfunctional government. I’m not sure very blue Vermont is really thinking clearly.
…if you turn the 2nd chart sideways, it looks like a little girl with a very wide head wearing a skirt.