VPR has provided a link to the report on its Mason-Dixon conducted poll in a downloadable format (credited as “VPR Vermont poll”). Definitely some interesting results. As many predicted, Phil Scott has a comfortable lead for Lieutenant Governor, but Jim Condos is ahead of Jason Gibbs in the SoS race. Strong positives for Leahy and Welch, indicating Vermonters like the jobs both are doing.
Also, Dubie has stronger positives than Shumlin, but not by a large amount – and Dubie’s positives are under 50%, which is great news. “No opinions” and “don’t recognize” responses of the both of them are virtually ically the exact same, so those final votes are completely up for grabs.
Here are some results from the link:
Senate: Leahy 62% (fav/unfav=61/23), Britton 27% (fav/unfav=19/7). For the curious, Freilich 1%.
US House: Welch 61% (fav/unfav = 61/17), Beaudry 25% (fav/unfav = 19/11)
For the following two races, only favorable/unfavorables are currently available. Head to heads are presumably coming. When those numbers are released, expect Scott to have a sizable lead over Howard, and Condos to have a statistically meaningful (if not huge) lead over Gibbs.
Lieutenant Governor: Scott fav/unfav = 29/11, Howard fav/unfav = 19/5
Secretary of State: Condos fav/unfav = 20/9, Gibbs fav/unfav = 17/10
The full Governor spread:
Brian Dubie, 44% (fav/unfav = 47/31)
Peter Shumlin, 43% (fav/unfav = 41/37)
Ben Mitchell, 1%
Cris Ericson, 1%
Dan Feliciano, 1%
Em Peyton, 1%
Dennis Steele, 1%
Undecided 8
Click here for my more or less accurate prediction and (therefore, more or less meaningful) analysis of the results. You can also tune in to Chris Graff on Vermont Edition, who will doubtlessly tell us that this is all good news for Dubie, because Vermonters love Dubie (because Jim Douglas has been teh awesome!), and the numbers probably don’t really show how far ahead Dubie really is.
Is it strange that Dubie is polling better than Shumlin in So. VT? I mean, while perhaps it is considered to be a bit more conservative, isn’t there also a strong “favorite son” effect? Or is that erased by the fact that Shumlin is from radical Putney? But wouldn’t his Yankee stance be a boon?
Also, then you would have to ask why Dubie isn’t doing better in Chittenden, but I think that maybe he’s doing as well as a Republican of his persuasion might do there anyway, thanks to the fact that he lives there (Essex has become a scary place these days, so so many signs).
Am heartbroken that we’ll probably have another Douglas clone GOP governor in Vermont for the next two years. Once more we’ll have a gop administration to deal with cutting everything except taxes for the wealthy.
I find it very strange that all the minor party candidates are listed with 1%. I have to assume that this did not come from actual poll responses, but was a statistical calculation by folks that don’t know Vermont.
For example: Ben Mitchell (of the Liberty Union), and Emily Payton won’t get 1% each. They are both in Shumlin’s back yard (at least that is where the LU gets most of their votes) and will not do well. They also are on the left, and any votes they get would draw from likely Shumlin voters (or at least anti-Dubie voters).
Also, while I would agree with many of you that our Second Vermont Republic candidate, Dennis Steele, will not do well, he will get more then 1%. I would say 2.3% is a more fair estimate. This is important because he will draw Tea Party like votes away from Dubie. All told I have him taking 1.3% from Dubie, and 1% from Shumlin.
So, if we say the Liberty Union will get 0.6%, and Emily Payton will get 0.3%, and Steele will get 2.3% and adjust the poll results to reflect this, Shumlin would net 1.2%. That would give him the slightest of slightest leads heading into the home stretch.
Making such an adjustment, I’d say right now it is:
44.2% Shumlin
42.8% Dubie
(For what it’s worth) In the end, I predict the following election day outcomes:
Shumlin WINS (decided in General Assembly): 48.2%
Dubie: 47.0%
Denis Steel: 2.3%
Others, Combined: 2.7%
Eric Davis, care to place a wager??
Dave:)
Like your polls better than the vpr ones:) It’ll make the gray hairs I have grow grayer for sure:) Curious what it would have been with the cell phone numbers added in. Forgot about that.
Me thinks Vermont is homogenizing to some degree the so called Republican wave and VT is becoming “sort of OK” with the Karl Rove tactics – which is rather disturbing. This alone should be causing mashing of teeth. not good news, but maybe the motivation especially by cell phone users, could be a new wave if harnessed correctly?