What comes next (updated with major unity letter from Peter, Doug and Deb)

Major Update on what just happened:

  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

   AUGUST 29, 2010

   CONTACT:

   Alexandra MacLean

   Shumlin Campaign Manager

   (802) 272-0443

   Amy Schollenberger

   Racine Campaign Manager

   (802) 793-1114

   Paul Tencher

   Markowitz Campaign Manager

   (401) 965-3761

   Burlington, Vt – Gubernatorial candidates, Peter Shumlin, Doug Racine and Deb Markowitz sent the following e-mail to their lists of supporters today.

   Dear Vermonter,

   As we prepare for the recount process we wanted to share with you our plan to ensure that no matter what the results of the recount are, we will beat Brian Dubie in November.

   With the unofficial results showing Peter winning by 197 votes, we all agree that he should continue to campaign as the presumptive nominee.  We’ve also agreed to campaign together while the recount takes place.  Our vision for Vermont is dramatically different than Brian Dubie’s and as this process unfolds, it is critical that Vermonters understand the contrast between Brian’s vision and our own.

   We will all be working together over the coming days to ensure that the recount process happens as quickly and effectively as possible so the nominee has as much time as possible to beat Brian.  In addition, the three of us will continue to work together to ensure that fundraising, staffing and other efforts essential to the campaign continue.

   In many ways, this may have been the most extraordinary primary in the history of Vermont.  All five candidates articulated their vision for Vermont without disparaging each other.  The reason that roughly 75,000 Vermonters turned out to vote is because they were energized by these positive visions.  Whatever the results of the recount, the Democratic nominee will have this energy, passion, and excitement behind them as they take on Brian Dubie.

   Thank you for all of your support.

   Best,

   Peter, Doug, Deb

Racine has requested a recount.  At this juncture, there are several possible outcomes.  This piece outlines my perspective on the possible outcomes, and what we need to do to maintain our best chance of Democratic victory come November.

First, regarding the recount itself:

It’s easy to object to a recount and explain why it’s a bad idea.  It’s easy to sow discord over it because some people truly do resent it.  Others think it’s a bad idea, politically, for a variety of reasons.  They may or may not be wrong, but that’s become irrelevant at this point.

Here’s what’s important to remember: the campaign for the Democratic nomination is over.  The votes have been cast.  The decision has been made.  That decision will be known for certain in the not too distant future, but there’s nothing we can do to change it in any form at this point.  

So we have options.  We can discuss whether or not the recount is a good idea.  We can complain about it or praise it.  We can argue over it.  But that ship has sailed, and, honestly, come November 3rd, no one will care what we say now about it.  Some of us will be able to say “see!  I told you it was an awful idea” or “I was right!  The recount helped us in the end.”  

Right here, right now, I, personally, would like to focus on the things that we can change, the things we can do, and where to go from here.

So let’s talk about the things to look out for:

When the nomination was undecided for President in 2008, there was a concerted effort on the part of Republicans to sow discord and disarray among Democrats, exploiting anger between the groups.  I don’t need to tell anyone this, but sometimes we need reminders.

Expect this.  Expect a media narrative that this is bad for Democrats.  It doesn’t matter whether you agree with it or if it’s right.  This narrative would have come no matter the situation, no matter the outcome.  Expect people to come to groups such as ours, pretending to be Democrats, trying to make us fight one another.  

But also expect real Democrats with real anger over this to be coming here to have their say about this as well and expect to have difficulty telling the difference.

All of that is okay.  What, however, is dangerous is turning it into an opportunity for the rest of us to start bashing our candidates in the process.  There is potential for harm in this, because it does sow discord, whether intentional or not.

I say this and some of you will use this as an opportunity to vent anger.  Do that or not, but keep in mind the bigger picture.  We have a Democrat to elect in November.  

In the meantime, those of us who do not have an axe to grind over this have an obligation to speak with kindness and clarity, without attacking one another.  We can disagree without fighting.  We can dissent without dismissing.  We can discuss without damage.

When this is all over, we will have one of three outcomes.  Either Shumlin will win, Racine will win or, in a move that will completely amaze everyone, Markowitz will win.

In any case, some people will be disappointed, but they’ll have felt at the end of this that their voice was heard and know their vote was counted.  They’ll end up as supporters of the final winner if we can keep the campaigns as cordial as they have been prior to the vote.  

This means not rising to bait.  This means thinking about what we post– not self-censorship but just thinking of intent.  When we post something that’s an attack on a candidate or his or her supporters, are we doing so to validate or own egos?  Are we doing so to be defensive and/or aggressive?  Or, instead, are we doing so to benefit the campaigns?  Again, I’m not saying what people should or should not do except to say that we need to be conscious of what we are doing and think about it clearly.  

I say all this because I’ve already seen hostile comments from supporters of both Racine and Shumlin, about each candidate and/or his supporters.  These have come up here and on the candidates’ Facebook pages.

All I’m really asking is “what’s the point?”  As I said, the campaign is over.  Arguing the relative merits of a Shumlin vs. Racine choice is no longer of value.  In any case, 3/4ths of the Democratic electorate refused to support your candidate and they had reasons for making the choice they did.  Whoever comes out on top here, doesn’t just want that other 75%.  She or he desperately needs it.

So this is what can happen in the meantime:

The candidates themselves can reach out to one another.  They can work together and with their own supporters to encourage them to support the winner.  They can show great respect for one another throughout the process.  And they can agree as a group to go after Brian Dubie.  

One vulnerability that exists right now is that if any of the candidates goes after Dubie directly, taking the fight to him, it will seem presumptuous, like they’re declaring victory before it’s over.

You need to be presumptuous to run for Governor.  You need to be a little arrogant.  It’s okay.

So let’s have them all do it, hammering him constantly over the next three weeks.  And I don’t just mean Shumlin and Racine.  I mean Markowitz, Dunne and Bartlett.  I mean they need to be playing up why Dubie is bad for Vermont.  If all five are doing it, there is no room for anyone to look presumptuous.  And if they all do a great job of it, we’ll all be more comfortable with who the nominee is, even it wasn’t our first (or 3rd choice).

But we need to be doing this too.  And we’re especially poised to do this because we have nothing to lose and, quite frankly, we can be mean in ways the candidates never can.

We can muckrake.  We talk about this:

MONTPELIER – Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie received a helping hand in his gubernatorial bid from Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell Monday, who hosted a major fundraiser for the Vermont Republican in Washington, D.C.

He also got a barrage of criticism from Democrats for appearing with a man who once said that working women and feminists are “detrimental” to families and has recently rescinded a state policy against discriminating against gays and lesbians.

“It’s not suprising that one of the most conservative governors in America is helping out Brian Dubie,” said Alex MacLean, the campaign manager for Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin. “Brian Dubie is far too conservative for Vermont.”

in ways that are far less polite than our candidates need to be.

So here’s my question, to every one reading this:

What are you going to do next that increases the chances that we end up with a Democrat in the Governor’s office come November?  

21 thoughts on “What comes next (updated with major unity letter from Peter, Doug and Deb)

  1. Well, we do have until Tuesday to make a reasoned, scientific case that a recount is unnecessary.

    Look, let’s say all Dem voters understood the arithmetic of probability and knew how to study town by town and county by county results looking for aberrations. What would be happening now? The coordinated campaign would be staffed; the fund-raising process would be up and running; surrogates would be lining up appearances for the fall. Instead 100% of the party is being held hostage by 200 to 400 Racine die-hards (about 1/2 of 1% of Dem primary voters) piously claiming that the other 99.5% of Dem primary voters will not be satisfied until they are sure every single vote was counted correctly (not withstanding the fact that during the recount there will be ballots that judgment calls will be made about, and nobody can be sure they are being counted correctly).

    So this time will be lost. And I don’t believe those calling for the recount so loudly will really accept Shumlim (and I have to remind everyone I supported Matt) because I’m reading what less careful Racine supporters are saying on Facebook and Twitter and the fabulous Windsor County Dems listserve. So it appears to me that the recount will actually be more of a disservice to the party than not, and until it is formally requested I think the best way to help beat Dubie is to try to get the recount decision made scientifically instead of emotionally.

    I’d love to see Amy post her analysis of where the missing or wrongly counted votes are going to come from; I’ve been pouring over the results and don’t see it.

    FXF

    (F. X. Flinn, Quechee)

  2. Last year we were all inspired by the democratic recount process in Minnesota where Al Frankin eventually won by 300+/- votes after Colman had declared himself the winner in the November 2008 election.

    I say respect the process but verify that every vote is counted correctly.

    Minnesota proved that there are many ways for votes to be wrongly counted, and not all of them sinister.

    There is also plenty of precedent to question the validity of the optical scanner counts.

    As discussed here http://hackingdemocracy.com/ and here



    I hope all actual paper ballots are hand counted to assuage that worry.

    What I really miss is Instant Runoff Voting.  

    Despite the complexity it was a real breath of democracy in action….

    And applied here we would really know which candidate most democratic voters in VT preferred… and know who that was only as late as a day after the election too !

  3. The only view of Vermont that Dubie could possibly prove, is what this state looks like from several thousand feet in the air.

    Taken from an email that popped into my in-box this morning, signed by Peter, Doug and Deb:

    “With the unofficial results showing Peter winning by 197 votes, we all agree that he should continue to campaign as the presumptive nominee.  We’ve also agreed to campaign together while the recount takes place.  Our vision for Vermont is dramatically different than Brian Dubie’s and as this process unfolds, it is critical that Vermonters understand the contrast between Brian’s vision and our own.”

  4. I was pleased this morning to see a joint e-mail from all three candidates (Doug, Peter and Deb) in my inbox, essentially saying that they share a single vision and have agreed to campaign together until the recount is finalized.  If they can embrace the idea of being a single united candidate in the short-run, we certainly should as well.

    As it has been rightly observed in discussion on this site, Brian Dubie will be presented with a dilemna during the period of the recount.  He will either lose more time in defining himself while remaining the target of a three-headed hydra of opposition who will define him in spite of  himself; or he will finally be drawn out specifically on the issues, where we know he has no substance.  For Dubie to go on the attack against Peter Shumlin, while the rest of Vermont awaits an outcome, would come across as oddly surgical and presumptuous.

  5. http://bit.ly/bdB9e7

    The Auditor’s race took 6 weeks to complete.  Yes I know that far less people voted in the primary, but it still makes one seriously question Doug’s statement that he was hopeful that the process could be completed in a week.  

    Which brings me to my next point, this is a primary, there is still an election going on.  One that is going to be over in approximately 9 weeks.  I hope that those who are supporting a recount, keep an open mind if it takes more then 1-2 weeks.  Any delay is detrimental, one that takes more then 2 weeks could very well be fatal.  

    As a side note look at what Tom told the Free Press –

    “Salmon said he doesn’t think a recount will hurt the Democrats in the governor’s race, presuming the recount takes fewer than the six weeks his took, and presuming Democrats continue to work on their campaign strategy in the meantime.”

    That speaks volumes in respect to the fact that the Republicans are relishing this extra time that Dubie does not have to face a debate.

    I could not agree more with FXF’s thoughts.  I also agree with reelvermonter in that this is a political and psychological decision as much as one of mathematics.  With that said, politically the choice is clear, the quicker a clear candidate emerges for the Ds, the better chance we have.  Psychologically . . . well that is tougher, suffice to say, I hope that everyone agrees that Pete, Doug or Deb will be a hundred times better then Dubie as governor.  

    Pete happened to win the election, now it is time to support him before time runs out.

    Best,

    Ed

  6. All y’all with a Racine bumper sticker should add a Shumlin sticker (that’s what I’m doing). Those with a Shumlin sticker should add a Racine. We’re all in this together you know.

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