As close as the election is, we can be pretty sure that the margin will be within the range in which a losing candidate can request a recount.
Here's what Vermont law says:
The procedure involves a filing in the Washington Superior Court, where all the ballots are transported and counted by hand.
The conventional wisdom is that a recount would be a disaster for us because “we learned from the Salmon recount in 2006 that a recount takes two weeks”.
I think the conventional wisdom is half right and half wrong.
I agree that it would be bad to have a recount. The people who do the recount are people who work in the party and who could, in the absence of a recount, be doing other campaign work. In addition, it does seriously deflate the lift that the winner should come out of the primary with.
I do not think it should take two weeks, though. In 2006 the recount was for a general election for Auditor of Accounts. There were just over 250,000 ballots recounted. This year it's a primary, and we're probably in the neighborhood of 65-70,000 votes, which should take approximately a third as much time as the Salmon recount consumed.
I don't have any inside information that you don't at this point, but keep in mind that the people you're hearing on the radio and TV also probably don't.
is this the case with primaries or specific to general elections? It’s my understanding that the individual parties have a little more control about how their nominations are settled. Not that I suggest the party jump in here, ’cause I think that would be a disaster. I’m just trying to understand the law.
If the recount takes, let’s say, 5 days, wouldn’t it be worth it to eliminate any “cloud” that the winner might be under? Given how close this is, it might be good for us all to know who really won, right? Also, the primary used to be in mid-September, right? So, even if there is a recount, it will all be decided long before then.
I’m just thinking this through….
the party only has a role if there is an actual tie during a given primary and the remedy provided under Vermont election law for an actual primary tie is as follows (here):
Jack et al,
Would the procedure for starting a recount in Wash. County Superior Court have to wait for the Sec. of State to release a certfied primary result? If so, how long will it take for certified numbers to be available to the SoS? Is there any realistic scenario under which the entire recount procedure could be completed by Friday September 3?
According to the statute the losing candidate has ten days from the election to request a recount.
County canvassing boards are going to meet on Friday to certify the results of the election. (At least that’s when we’re meeting in Washington County.)
It seems unlikely that any candidate would file a request for a recount before then, but I certainly don’t know that.
The Superior Court (now the Civil Division of the Superior Court) is required to set “an early date” for the recount, giving all parties five days’ notice. I think that means we’re most likely after Labor Day before the counting starts.
1) It will keep the Democratic gubernatorial wannabe names and personalities front and center without the need to purchase advertising.
2) It will force Dubie into spending large amounts of cash early to keep his “personality” up front and center.
3) It will assure that many more people will be watching the process early on.
4) It will keep the excitement level up for the Democratic base and those leaning that way.
There are no downsides to a recount in this particular instance.
I’m not so sure a recount would benefit the Democrats, but I’d be naive to think Racine/Markowitz wouldn’t demand one. Maybe it won’t be a huge blow to the party’s nominee in the general election, but I certainly don’t want to be watching Dubie on election night, wishing my candidate had an extra week of campaigning put in.
A recount that lasts up to 3 weeks is a benefit to Dems: keeps their name in the story without having to put any money into ads.
Once you get past 3 weeks or so, it starts to become old news and fade off the circuit. So if we can see a recount that lasts under 3 weeks, that’s excellent. Otherwise it could start to become a problem.
OK… If the Shumlin win stands (and I do think a recount would hurt the Dems) here is how I see the general:
Governor: Shumlin (very very close) over Dubie
LT Gov: Scott over Howard (as Scott will take away some of the working class vote)
Sec of State: Condos over Gibbs
Auditor: Hoffer (who will have the Dem and Prog nomination) over Tom
Congress: Welch (by landslide) over Paul
In Washington County, the VT Senators will be Cummings, Pollina, and Doyle. This will give the Progs (through Anthony) a much bigger statewide platform.
All told I see the statewide general election results bring Vermont slightly more to the left.
Who is the king-maker? The TEAMSTERS (with their 1000 members) will have direct access to Shumlin (the new Governor?) for the next 10 years. It was their support that made the difference.
On the flip side, this
willmay make for strained relations between the rest of labor (with 30,000 members) with the Teamsters (as the Teamsters, if they stayed with Racine, could have locked it up for Doug).