Elections – Gubernatorial Primary: It’s a ridiculously obvious contradiction all too common among many on the left. On the one hand, some activists decry the fact that money is so important in politics. Fair enough. It certainly sucks. Then in the next breath, they’ll denounce any who discuss candidates’ fundraising as significant.

Money is either a big deal in elections or it isn’t, and if it is, then the fundraising of individual candidates matters. Indeed, the bigger a deal money in politics is, the more it logically follows that fundraising does matter. Cause -> effect. 1+1=2.

There’s been enough time since the financial filings to assess the impact of those reports on the race, and that impact has clearly been significant.  

Markowitz performed to her historically high expectations. Dunne and Shumlin performed above most expectations. In fact, if one factors out the significant contribution Shumlin made to his own campaign, Dunne actually came in a hair’s breath above Shumlin, quietly surprising many (it shouldn’t have). Shumlin put his own money where his mouth is demonstrating he is in this to win, and the endorsements he has accumulated in recent weeks demonstrate some serious campaign momentum.

And then there’s the Racine anomaly. Despite a collection of the biggest endorsements, Racine’s fundraising was in the neighborhood of Susan Bartlett’s rather than his more competitive opponents. The result? By all appearances, this race – rather than being a 2 way showdown, or even a 3 way battle – is now a full blown 4-way contest, and will likely stay that way until this month’s primary. This is as much due to the upward momentum of the Shumlin and Dunne campaigns as the questions of confidence that have resurfaced about Racine as a result of the filing.

Consider: Peter Shumlin has gone up with a TV ad. So has Markowitz. Word is that Dunne will join in soon. It’s a cold hard fact that these three campaigns are the only three campaigns that can afford to run any ads, and that fact may not be lost on many of the savvier primary voters. (Big correction: Turns out this is quite wrong, as Racine will be going up with a TV ad soon. Whatever the content of the advertisement, running one at all could prove a sign to voters that the money has started flowing again…)

None of which is to suggest that Racine is going away before the 24th, but his hopes of keeping the race between him and Markowitz are a thing of the past. For many who have been watching these things for years, the poor financial showing brought back all the old concerns about Racine that he had managed to consign to the past after his impressive initial filing last year; that he’s not putting in the work that needs to be done to beat the Republicans. Since last summer, around $1.2 million dollars has already been circulated to defeat Brian Dubie. That’s an amazing figure. Racine – who had looked like the front runner to many, and who had captured all the early, major organizational endorsements, could barely collect 8 or 9 percent of that pot for his own efforts.

Perhaps more dangerous for Racine, though, are the reminiscences of his campaign against Jim Douglas. Back then, Racine had a tight group of advisors who were so devoted to him at a personal level that they seemed to have a hard time acknowledging troubling news, let alone adapting to it. Flash forward to the present, and folks close to the Racine operation have suggested that this campaign’s inner circle actually expected their fundraising would be in the neighborhood of their competitors. Worse still, there are frustrated mutterings that they haven’t taken the low filing particularly seriously as a campaign issue, even though it obviously is. Such counter intuitive chatter is eerily familiar, and that hasn’t sat well with a lot of observers.

But the fact remains, Racine commands great loyalty within the progressive wing of the party. Also, he is immensely popular in his native Chittenden County across the Democratic ideological spectrum, where the highest percentage of primary votes will come from – an even higher percentage than will turn out for the general election.

And those numerous organizational endorsements (more than all his rivals combined) – what will their effect be? The AFL endorsement was only a boost for a news cycle, which has come and gone. The VLCV has maintained a sophisticated online persuasion effort that is doubtlessly feeding valuable information into voter ID lists. Will the VSEA and the Vermont NEA be able to turn out members for GOTV efforts? Yes. Will it be as many as the Racine campaign needs? No doubt these organizations were shaken by the bad buzz around the financial filing and will not relish the prospect of seeing their candidate come in fourth, so the motivation to avoid that scenario will be high. Expect some shaking of the bushes among the endorsing groups memberships.

And a 4-way race means that the winner is going to persevere with very, very few votes. It’s going to largely come down to voter ID lists (in which campaigns have identified their supporters in advance of the election) and get out the vote (GOTV) efforts, in which they work to guarantee that all those supporters actually show up and vote.

Markowitz has to be considered the leader in the post-campaign-finance-report world, but the significance of that lead is dramatically diminished in a 4 way race. In many ways, Team Deb would’ve been better off if Racine had stayed dominant and the whole affair had come down to two. Now, even with the the Markowitz financial juggernaut, anything is possible. In an election where 15,000 (or fewer) voters could e enough to win, one can still draw up mathmatical scenarios where Susan Bartlett comes out ahead. It’s clear that Markowitz Campaign Manager Tencher knows this and is taking nothing for granted.

In this environment, the sophistication and effectiveness of the early vote operations currently underway could well provide the margin of victory.

Mojometers follow, but without any further individualized analysis. Instead, there will be lists of endorsing organizations.

And in these last few weeks, given the depletion of the Democratic candidate’s coffers, it’s critical that you check out and join the Facebook group 1000 VERMONTERS FOR CHANGE as well as spread the word among your friends online. Click here for details!!

Deb Markowitz. Organizational endorsements: Emily’s List

Matt Dunne. Organizational endorsements: 21st Century Democrats

Peter Shumlin. Organizational endorsements: Teamsters Local 597, VT Freedom to Marry PAC

Doug Racine. Organizational endorsements: Vermont National Education Association, Vermont League of Conservation Voters, Vermont AFL-CIO, Vermont Building and Construction Trades Council, Vermont State Employees Association

Susan Bartlett. Organizational endorsements: none