Elections – Governor: As much as the bottom line, candidates tomorrow will be playing to the expectations of observers on their fundraising reports. An example of that can be heard in Bob Kinzel’s VPR report this morning on Susan Bartlett’s fundraising. No one doubts that Bartlett will be last in terms of dollars raised, but by playing down that expectation as much as she does, any respectable bottom line could be seen as a win.
So what are the candidates likely to report? No one outside of the campaigns themselves can say for sure, but here are some educated guesses of what we may expect to see:
Markowitz will certainly lead the pack, and may potentially crack three quarters of a million dollars. A showing in the low $700k range should surprise no one (Publisher’s note: Insiders report that this number is high, and that the hyperventilating hubbub about Markowitz’s haul, which some have suggested will exceed even $800k, is unrealistic. Look for something more in the $500-$600k range).
Racine will come in second, but won’t have reached half a million. Expect to see Racine’s total raised to be near $400,000.
The bronze medal will be interesting to see. Dunne will have a win if he comes in raising more than a quarter million dollars which will surprise some observers. Peter Shumlin, of course, is legendary for his fundraising prowess, and he has been able to tap the national LGBTQ community (including, reportedly, $15k from a single Boston event). Given the late start, some observers project him to report in the $300,000 range, but he and Dunne may well be closer than expected. A Dunne third place showing – although unlikely – would be a big blow for Shumlin. It could turn out that way, but it looks pretty unlikely. In the case of Susan Bartlett, the question will be whether she has achieved 6 figures, as that seems to be the bar she is setting for herself in the media.
Cash on hand? Harder to say. It’s the spending season and Markowitz has staffed up more than her competitors, while Shumlin has already begun TV ad buys. Who has been spending money on internal polling and who hasn’t? Cash on hand is likely the more significant number for the next few weeks, and those numbers will be anybody’s guess.
But the combined reports will show that, since the start of this process a year and a half back, the five Democrats will have raised in the neighborhood of $1.75 million dollars – all for a Vermont primary – and that right there tells us what a different electoral world we now live in.
It also tells us there’s a lot of interest and money out there to return the Governorship to Democratic hands.
The other interesting number in tomorrow’s reports will be Dubie’s. Will he have raised more than $1,000,000 by now? How much of his money comes from Vermont, and how much from out-of-state (such as the VA fundraiser hosted by McDonnell)? How much of Dubie’s contributions come from businesses that are regulated by the State of Vermont, or do business with the state?
Will have to look at Dubie’s (and all candidates) individual donors as well. Corporations like to skirt campaign finance laws by having their Board or upper level managers contribute to campaigns as individuals, so they can get two bites at the apple.
Either I missed it or no one is asking the question, “How much did each candidate spend to fund raise?” Spending a ton of money to raise a ton of money leaves one back at zero. The secret is to raise a ton of money without spending even a quarter ton. The other questions; a) in state vs out of state, b) companies regulated by the state and so on are all good questions.