Elections – Governor: A big, big week for the candidates for Governor to say the least.

Bob Kinzel had an excellent assessment of the significance of the upcoming financial filing last week on VPR, and it’s definitely worth checking out. What he did not cover, however, is how the early vote process fits into it all. In any well-run campaign, the goal is to stay in control of as many variables as possible, and nothing is more quantum than turnout on election day. Identifying supportive voters and making sure they get to the polls is much easier if you have a robust field operation that works the early vote process – as opposed to depending exclusively on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) work on election eve – and working early vote well is a comprehensive, resource-intensive task. Making sure your supporters request an early ballot, making sure the request was received and returned, sending persuasion communiques to everyone in a town that makes such a request, even if they aren’t on your list – doing all of this well takes a commitment that not all campaigns will choose to make, even if it clearly does put the elusive turnout variable under far greater direct control.

Between the two benchmarks of early vote and financial filings, we’ll know far more about the respective campaign strategies and trajectories by the end of the week, and the kind of analysis we do with our mojometers becomes far less speculative. Until then, expect to be pummelled with last minute donation requests in order to pump those reports up as far as possible.

Here, then, are the last mojometers before that picture comes more clearly into focus (all of which run fairly high, as the campaigns each work to deliver their “A” game on such a uniquely important week), including some thoughts on what to look for in the filings as well as what to expect in the coming weeks.

Peter Shumlin. Shumlin has had a big last couple weeks. He scored a major endorsement from the Teamsters Local (breaking up Racine’s labor monopoly) and got a lot of press for going up with the primary’s first TV ad. Endorsements like the Teamsters are important for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that they can act as a de facto field operation. Unions and other constituency groups don’t simply pass their endorsements on to rank and file, they become invested in turning out that rank and file, as a win for the candidate enhances their own clout and credibility. As such, these endorsing groups can help with field operations like GOTV and early vote (and as of Monday, Shumlin has added the Freedom to Marry Action Committee to what is now a list of endorsing organizations – an endorsement which will likely be more significant than the Teamsters in the Democratic Primary). This is good for Shumlin, as it’s not clear how much of a field operation he’s been able to support on his own.

The TV ad has, as ads often do, generated a lot of “earned media” coverage from reporters, creating an impact above and beyond the buy itself. As such, Shumlin’s mojo goes decidedly up for the week. Nevertheless, the timing raises eyebrows. Coming so close before the filing deadline generates inevitable questions about his finances, and whether or not the Shumlin campaign has begun its sprint for the home stretch relatively early in part to drive up last minute contributions to avoid an underwhelming cash on hand report. Time will tell. Still, momentum feeds momentum and Shumlin has given his operation a serious adrenilin injection in recent days.

The outgoing Senate President Pro Tempore won’t have the best field operation, won’t have the most ad buys, and likely won’t get the most earned media in the final days. What he’s going to need to do is be second best at everything in order to cobble together the votes when the polls close.

Deb Markowitz. Markowitz, like all the others, has sent out early vote messages to supporters. Unlike the others, though, field seems to be a relative afterthought. Despite the fact that Campaign Manager Paul Tencher talked up field and grassroots organizing in the above-linked Kinzel report (including touting the recent hiring of a field staff), the fact is that up to this point, the Markowitz campaign has been all about fundraising, with most of its human resources focused on bringing in more resources.

This means that Markowitz’s focus will be media buys rather than field work, so we can expect to see some major ad buys from her campaign soon. This will dovetail with the Markowitz’s campaign messaging up to this point, which has been primarily focused on building up the Secretary of State as a positive personality, and getting into issue specifics more slowly and tenuously than her rivals.

Winning with paid media is certainly a modus operandi for modern campaigns, but in a small state like Vermont it comes with risks. The winner may only receive 15,000 votes after all, so while the more field-focused operation will be concerned with banking those votes in advance (and driving up the turnout overall in the process), Markowitz will focus more on working hearts and minds leading up to the big day. Her financials will be particularly interesting to watch for this reason. If she reports as much money on hand as many expect, that cash combined with a smaller voter turnout could easily equal a Markowitz victory in August. Good mojo but not great because of vulnerability in the ground game in a race that could well turn on the ground game.

Doug Racine. Racine has inherited tremendous field resources through his multiple endorsements. The Vermont League of Conservation Voters and the Vermont NEA in particular will do early vote work on his behalf, and the effect of the stream of endorsements (along with the hiring of national election bigshot Joe Trippi) on his campaign’s buzz has been tremendous, raising confidence in his potential prowess as the possible Democratic Party standard bearer among uncertain primary voters. He does continue to be dogged with rumors that he isn’t raising money, but it’s difficult to judge those rumors. Earlier in the year, it seemed likely that those rumors were unfounded (possibly originating with opponents?), as their emergence would be followed by campaign expenditures such as new campaign hires (he must be paying them something, no?). Still, who knows?

But truthfully, even if he is broke (which, again, is unlikely), the support from his constituency groups along with a savvy, field-focused campaign means he could easily win this regardless, and refill his coffers after the fact. A big turnout equals more early voters, and could equal a Racine victory. Good mojo but not the greatest because of the fundraising buzz.

Matt Dunne. Dunne is going to have a good week, as he is likely going to surprise many with his fundraising. If he comes in with a better filing than Shumlin, it will surprise enough observers to give him some good momentum in the media. With his not insignificant (and recently trumpeted) support from many in the business community, Dunne will be able to compete strongly on resources and message.

From all appearences, Dunne seems to have the most comprehensive and vibrant field operation. Whether it can compete with Racine’s largely outsourced one is the question, but good buzz from a filing will help across the board by generating coverage and boosting his still-lower name recognition.

If Dunne has a lot of money on hand, don’t be surprised to see some strategic TV buys, as we saw in his Lieutenant Governor primary against John Tracy (and an excellent ad it was, targeted right to the VPR crowd with its Willem Lange voiceover). Strong mojo, and again, the higher the turnout, the better the chance of a Dunne victory.

Susan Bartlett. If Racine has a constituency-group-driven field machine and Dunne has a sophisticated internal field machine, Bartlett gets the award for having the most field-dominated operation, putting her on the opposite end of the spectrum from Markowitz. No one is expecting Bartlett to have a lot of cash on hand, and her campaign is playing down any such expectations. Instead, her operation is proudly announcing its focus on the ground game, even going so far as to sell that reliance as a messaging virtue.

Field is great, but name recognition and broad support are still tough hurdles for Bartlett, so expect a few Hail Mary campaign passes in the coming weeks. A mysteriously unrevealing press release announcing a press conference for today (Tuesday) could well signal one, and its enigmatic lack of detail clearly teases those who may be expecting her to drop out of the race entirely (unlikely, as another email to supporters went out pushing early vote).

It’s difficult to judge the mojo of the Bartlett campaign, so we’ll make it a wash – but as a more fiscally conservative, straight-talk style candidate, she very much fits the profile of a candidate who will get a lot of love from newspaper endorsement boards. If she can stay afloat a while longer, it seems likely she’ll pile up her share of these highly influential endorsements.