There are new numbers out on Vermont’s currently six-way race, but you’ve got to consider the source: Rasmussen, widely regarded as, uh, sympathetic to Republicans. If you click on over, the polling site reports that Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dubie leads all five Democratic candidates.
Why might we question that outcome? Well, they also show Republican Governor Jim = fire-all-the-union-employees (unless-they-work-for-Entergy) Douglas as enjoying a 64% approval rating. One has to wonder at their claim they screened their respondents for likely voters. Other somewhat odd results suggest that Sen. Susan Bartlett has better name-recognition than Sen. (and former Lt. Gov.) Doug Racine:
Dubie and Markowitz are the best-known of the candidates. Dunne and Racine are the least-known.
The good news, if the poll is to be believed, lands in Sec. of State Deb Markowitz’s lap. Of the five D candidates, she polls the closest, lagging only seven points behind the debate-shy Dubie, 46% – 36%. Racine and Bartlett poll equally behind Dubie at 48%-35%, followed by Peter Shumlin (51%-33%) and Matt Dunne (51%-29%).
[Update: It’s been brought to my attention that the text at the Rasmussen Vermont poll site says Bartlett lags Dubie in a head-to-head by 52% – 26%.
When State Senator Susan Bartlett is his Democratic opponent, Dubie holds a two-to-one lead, 52% to 26%.
I was looking at the charts in the right-hand sidebar which show Bartlett and Racine with the identical difference. The chart info is copied after the flip. Just one more reason to ask questions about any data.]
Election 2010: Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R)48%
Doug Racine (D) 35%
Some Other Candidate 5% Not Sure 12%Election 2010: Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R) 48%
Susan Bartlett (D) 35%
Some Other Candidate 5% Not Sure 12%
One other, uh, interesting thing in the data is the some other candidate/unsure category. In the Markowitz head-to-head, it’s 14% (4% some other; 10% unsure). For Shumlin, the total duh factor is 16% (6 and 10); Racine’s and Bartlett’s total duh factor is up one more at 17% (5 and 12 each); and Dunne’s is 20% (6 and 14).
And even Republican leanings can’t suggest that U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy will have to break a sweat in his re-election campaign, but that’s another poll.