There are new numbers out on Vermont’s currently six-way race, but you’ve got to consider the source: Rasmussen, widely regarded as, uh, sympathetic to Republicans. If you click on over, the polling site reports that Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dubie leads all five Democratic candidates.
Why might we question that outcome? Well, they also show Republican Governor Jim = fire-all-the-union-employees (unless-they-work-for-Entergy) Douglas as enjoying a 64% approval rating. One has to wonder at their claim they screened their respondents for likely voters. Other somewhat odd results suggest that Sen. Susan Bartlett has better name-recognition than Sen. (and former Lt. Gov.) Doug Racine:
Dubie and Markowitz are the best-known of the candidates. Dunne and Racine are the least-known.
The good news, if the poll is to be believed, lands in Sec. of State Deb Markowitz’s lap. Of the five D candidates, she polls the closest, lagging only seven points behind the debate-shy Dubie, 46% – 36%. Racine and Bartlett poll equally behind Dubie at 48%-35%, followed by Peter Shumlin (51%-33%) and Matt Dunne (51%-29%).
[Update: It’s been brought to my attention that the text at the Rasmussen Vermont poll site says Bartlett lags Dubie in a head-to-head by 52% – 26%.
When State Senator Susan Bartlett is his Democratic opponent, Dubie holds a two-to-one lead, 52% to 26%.
I was looking at the charts in the right-hand sidebar which show Bartlett and Racine with the identical difference. The chart info is copied after the flip. Just one more reason to ask questions about any data.]
Election 2010: Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R)48%
Doug Racine (D) 35%
Some Other Candidate 5% Not Sure 12%Election 2010: Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R) 48%
Susan Bartlett (D) 35%
Some Other Candidate 5% Not Sure 12%
One other, uh, interesting thing in the data is the some other candidate/unsure category. In the Markowitz head-to-head, it’s 14% (4% some other; 10% unsure). For Shumlin, the total duh factor is 16% (6 and 10); Racine’s and Bartlett’s total duh factor is up one more at 17% (5 and 12 each); and Dunne’s is 20% (6 and 14).
And even Republican leanings can’t suggest that U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy will have to break a sweat in his re-election campaign, but that’s another poll.
is if they polled Lamoille County most heavily, and more or less passed over Chittenden County. With a sampling size of just 500 “likely voters” (from whose list?) there’s a major credibility gap in this fantasy flyer. If this is the best Dubie’s poll-padders can come up with, maybe they need to take a road trip and actually visit the state!
…but do not entirely discount the results, and we ignore them at our peril. Sad to say, the vast majority of Vermonters who do not read this blog or think much about elections until being hammered by TV spots probably see 5 Dems bloodying each other while that blank but oh so nice, likable Lt. Gov., floats above the fray.
We can not complacently believe that our fellow citizens are so sick of Jim Douglas that they wouldn’t turn around and vote for an empty suit.
About the people who answered this poll
93% thought McCain won the 2008 election but the democrats fixed it
98% think John Boehner’s tan is the real deal
87% think if Jim Douglas spreads his legs far enough the sun can be seen shining out
96% see Plato in their head when Brian Dubie speaks
74% would like to do Sweatin to the Oldies with Sarah Palin
88% hate the democrats for all those programs, excpet the ones that help their unemployed brother’s family or their widowed mom
50% could see downtown Woodstock from their living rooms
A friend reminded me that with a respondent sample of 500 voters, the margin of error is 4.5%, which could put Markowitz even with Dubie and shrink the apparent gaps between Dubie and the others.
NanuqFC
Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. ~ William W. Watt