(Once again, in keeping with GMD’s policy of promoting first-hand diaries by the candidates to our front page, here is the latest from Matt Dunne. – promoted by Sue Prent)
The campaign team was delighted to see a new analysis of the WCAX poll this week. As many of you on GMD recognized when the results were first released, the margin of error in the poll meant that the pure ranking of candidates was not necessarily a true picture of the field.
University of Vermont Political Science Professor Anthony Gierzynski shows that the Vermont Governor’s race is still wide open, and that when the margin of error is taken into account, three of the Democratic candidates are statistically actually tied with Brian Dubie.
When I got into this race, everyone knew that it would be a challenge early on to compete with the other well known candidates who have been on the statewide stage for years. We were pleasantly surprised to have such strong numbers so early on in the race.
Those of you in the netroots have been a critical part of sharing candidate positions and visions across the state, demonstrating that elections do not have to be dependent on incumbency or spending large sums of money. We can have an election about who has the best experience and ideas to move our state into a new era. Regardless of who you support, thank you for bringing a refreshingly deep discussion to this important election.
As the campaign moves into the next phase, we will be building the kind of grass roots outreach efforts that Vermonters expect. Many of you helped with our quiet effort to engage thousands of Vermonters coming out of the polls on town meeting day. You can expect more of these volunteer driven efforts as Vermonters become increasingly ready to engage in a conversation about our state’s future.
I hope you will join us in this exciting year by signing up on our newly revamped website: http://mattdunne.com/
Matt
It just goes to show you that even on the simplest numerical level, we would do well to remain skeptical about the apparent findings of any poll, partisan or not. Unless we are told, at minimum, the sample size and geographic distribution of poll participants, as well as the exact wording of the questions, they don’t have much validity for me.