Gubernatorial Mojometers Return: Catching up to Week 8

The mojometers took a brief holiday allowing for the focus on Vermont Yankee and the buildup to the Senate vote, but now they’re back, subjective and impulsive as ever (but hopefully a little less wordy, although we’re not off to a very good start, eh?).

We’ve got a little time to make up for, but we’ll keep it brief nonetheless. Below the fold, if you will…

Peter Shumlin. He shoots, he scores. It’s not simply the Senate VY vote that puts the Shumster high in mojo land, its the magnitude of the win. After Entergy’s media push and Susan Bartlett’s pushback threatened to scuttle the vote, Shumlin didn’t just deliver the votes, he absolutely clobbered the bill. Don’t think rank and file Dems didn’t take notice.

Nevertheless, the Senator from Windham isn’t quite pegging the meter, as all those comments, cartoons and jabs about this Yankee stuff just being about politics were clearly striking nerves. Whether primary voters will remember, whether they’ll care, or whether it proves to be a genuine weak spot will remain to be seen.

Deb Markowitz. Markowitz gets a big boost from the WCAX head to head polls as the only Dem prospect who polled ahead of Brian Dubie. Margin of error? Sure, but so what? And an additional “so what” to the fact that a close analysis suggests that it may largely be due to higher name recognition, the fact is, that poll was primary gold for her and her campaign is pushing the point to reinvigorate what was looking like a little campaign stagnation. And the GOP continues to help her with that message with yet another feeble press attack that seems to send the message that she’s the candidate they’re really afraid of (and boy, do I mean feeble. Rather than bother with it, here’s the link.) All of this pretty much overwhelms the negative of not doing as well in the primary poll leaked to GMD as it would seem she should at this stage.

Doug Racine. Racine backs off a bit from “hot” status, as he played only a supporting role in the all-consuming Yankee saga, but stays well into positive territory because of his second-strongest (with all the margin-of-error caveats) showing on the CAX poll – and particularly the fact that that leaked primary poll still suggests he’s the one to beat among the rank and file Dems.

Matt Dunne. By all rights, Dunne should be neutral at best, given his being left on the outside of the Senate’s Yankee battle. But he did yeoman’s work keeping his name in the mix as much as humanly possible (including being a presence on site during the vote), and his follow-up supporter emails had a strong grassrootsy, adovcatey energy about them. Most important, though, is that both the WCAX poll and the leaked primary poll make it mathematically clear that Dunne is a player in this game, which should quiet any remaining skeptics.

Susan Bartlett. I won’t rehash the “what was she thinking” diaries. Suffice to say, Bartlett’s approach to the Yankee issue have gone over about as well with the primary crowd as one would think, at least in the case of those that I’ve heard from. The only question is whether her last minute 180 for the final vote, along with her uniquely well-spoken and press-repeated floor statement, did more to keep her out of the primary icebox than the appearence of a high-pressure flip-flop. I’m gonna bet that it did, and keep her out of ice cold territory.



Brian Dubie. This VY vote really seemed to leave Dubie out in the cold. He had nothing to contribute during the discussion (when he wasn’t hiding from it entirely) and seemed like a confused observer during the Senate vote, while his Democratic rivals were trying to outdo themselves in looking like gubernatorial material.

Dubie has been spending his time addressing sympathetic, GOP oriented crowds and not really saying much, and a look at his rejiggered campaign website under “issues” adds to the feeling that this is a guy who wants to stay as far away from the issues as possible.

In fact, the totality of his “issues” page is the most simplistic of GOP repetition: tax cuts, roll back the social safety net (he comes right out and says that, even, which is kind of amazing) and deregulate everything.

Given that last one, its no wonder that he hid from the Yankee debate, given that you couldn’t have a better poster child for the need for government oversight of big business than Entergy.

Arg. So much for trying to be less wordy.

13 thoughts on “Gubernatorial Mojometers Return: Catching up to Week 8

  1. Please don’t try to be less wordy. This is my favorite feature. This is very interesting and a nice way to think through the primary and I am enjoying it tremendously. Keep it up and please don’t try to make it shorter if it is going to lose some of the wonderful quality of the analysis! Thank you!

  2. I may not be that good on camera, but even I know that you don’t stare below the camera.  My theory is that either the cue cards were set up beneath the camera or that he was looking at the camera’s chest.

  3. The man got a cam.

    In Newport last week Brian Dubie ducked a debate held by the Orleans County Progressive Party Caucus. Everyone one but Racine and Dunne failed to attend.

    Dubie however showed some interest however because he sent a staffer out to film the event.

    A little clever Dubie oppo research? Maybe he is just trying to familiarize himself with the campaign debate process prior to participating someday?

    http://vtdigger.org/2010/02/28

  4. Shumlin definitely does have a target on his back this week; but he had the unique opportunity to look gubernatorial in his leadership position last week

    (as opposed to Dubie, who merely looked “goobernatorial.”)

    Racine may not have shone so brightly but he did some of the heavy lifting, and is apparently still working to his strengths which include a commitment to grassroots networking across the state, meeting  people in their own neck of the woods.  Racine is extremely relaxed and charismatic when he speaks one-on-one with voters.

    Wisely, Dunne appears to have followed Racine’s lead, and is out there making himself available to the voters.  This could go far toward dispelling the impression among some older voters that he is an urban corporate techie with whom they have little in common; perhaps more importantly, he is building face and name-recognition for what could be a long and successful political career.

    Markowitz came out strong on VY, and is to be commended for this, even if she could do it from the relative safety of the sidelines.

    Bartlett…what can I say?  Does she even have political advisors?

  5. I’m not seeing anyone who wants to take on the right on basic American values:

    Democracy vs. Monarchy, free markets vs. oligarchy, fiscal responsibility vs. cronyism, health care vs. patent medicine.  

    The Vt Yankee vote is just the beginning of the energy struggle.  The swift boating will begin soon.  

    Do any of the Dems see it coming?  Do they have a plan?

    I haven’t heard one yet!

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