The “put up or shut up” card is played, and a high-profile campaign defection occurs. The intrigue begins, and it all gets a little more complicated.

A collective mojometer narrative this time, because I’m behind on them.

As an observer, this period for me was about fleshing out who among the candidates truly recognized the implications of a longer elections calendar and a full-on primary, and who didn’t. I truly expected that one or two candidates would hold off throwing all in because starting the campaign season before summer was “not the Vermont way” or some conveniently lazy nonsense.

Not so. All five have been campaigning actively, so all five have “graduated” into the modern world of Vermont campaigns.

So what we have now is a game of chess; of making strategic, long-term moves designed to build a long term narrative about the candidates (or something less than a narrative – an impression) – as well as trying to impact opponents’ long-term narratives. All without looking like they’re doing that.

And that process has begun in force in the last two weeks.

Vermont Yankee is a big part of that battlefield. This has been Peter Shumlin‘s strongest issue, but also his most dangerous, as he is uniquely positioned to do something about it. Matt Dunne was the first candidate outside the Statehouse to take advantage of the tricky political dynamics of the Senate (in which he is no longer immersed) by calling for a VY vote sooner rather than later. Deb Markowitz followed with a petition (which enables her to add to her list as well – very clever) – all of which puts the three Senators on the spot in front of the primary voters.

Doug Racine wisely joined in to deflect that pressure play, rightfully pointing out that he has no power to call for a relicense vote, but standing ready to vote no. Only Bartlett hasn’t thrown in, but its clear the pressure is on Senate President Pro Tem Shumlin.

Thing is, of course, Shumlin is fully capable of quickly and unexpectedly jiu-jitsuing the pressure and actually calling for that vote (remember how quickly and definitively he moved on the Bush impeachment vote when the pressure was on). If he does that, he retakes the primary momentum in a big way, becoming the poster child of “walking the walk” to rank and file Dems – so the politics of this issue remain explosive.

And Shumlin’s and Dunne’s strong early moves – perhaps unexpectedly so – are keeping the early jockeying for position quite lively, and the ones who they threaten are likely Susan Bartlett and Markowitz. With Racine’s name recognition, Chittenden County base, and popularity among constituent groups like labor, he’s likely to be in the “top three” when primary day comes unless he gets complacent (and yes, his sometimes-skimpy answers to the GMD questionnaire might suggest a little of that, but on the other hand, his uncharacteristically passionate “win” at the labor forum suggests the opposite).

For the others, its harder to say. One of them will likely get squeezed out. At present, Bartlett is not a safe bet to be in the top tier, of course, but she does have that potential “dark horse” mojo which can work quickly with so few voters involved – especially if voters start getting tired of the higher profile candidates. And she is not being shy about forging her own, more “centrist” policy narrative. She may well own that territory in the final vote. I’d be surprised if that in and of itself would be a winner for her among primary voters, but it could yet leave her among the contenders in the final stretch. Hard to guess.

Even early powerhouse Markowitz could still get squeezed out, but she has also raised enough money for several campaign peaks, and anecdotally, she seems to have the supporter base most willing to give repeatedly (as that seems to be what they’re doing). That’s huge.

But that’s not to say the big money supporters aren’t fluid. The most interesting “inside baseball” move of the week began with the mysterious disappearance from the supporter list on Markowitz’s website of Arthur and Anne Berndt – two of the biggest, highest profile Democratic campaign contributors in the state. They were early supporters of Markowitz.

Where’d they go? The Shumlin campaign just announced that Arthur Berndt was his new Finance Chair. In insider Dem circles, this shift is a big, big deal, and it underscores the real behind-the-scenes wrestling match going on. The Berndts sway a lot of other Dems, so this isn’t good news for Markowitz. Expect to see her get more actively involved in state issues to keep her supporters amped and onboard – Yankee was only the beginning.

So the chess game is afoot. At some point in the summer, it will turn into something more like NASCAR, but for the next few months it’ll be chess. Collective mojometers below, and since everybody is engaged and nobody is currently slacking, everybody starts out a little ahead with the mojo once again – but the dynamics I cited above will determine who is a little higher than who. Markowitz gets hot with Yankee, but loses heat with Berndt’s defection and the insider message that sends. Shumlin gets hot with the influential pickup, but is losing some heat by finding himself on the hot seat with his #1 issue. Racine is strong, but just shy of smoking, while Dunne stays constant and continues to open people’s eyes to his campaign’s viability. And Bartlett, given her position and responsibilities as Chair of Appropriations, is simply going to have a hard time doing a lot more than breaking even, until and unless she becomes a star of the budget process towards the end of the session.

SUSAN BARTLETT: