Gubernatorial Mojometers, Week 2

What’s the buzz for the week? Who’s up, who’s down, and who’s AWOL in the race for Governor? This busybody blogger’s opinion is below the fold (and you can take a look back at week 1 by clicking here).

Peter Shumlin. Shumlin remains blazing hot, courtesy of Entergy Vermont Yankee. The recent shocker (ha) that Entergy has been lying to the state about its operations, and that its lie could potentially cover up groundwater contamination has the added effect of nuclear powering Shumlin’s campaign profile. This is his issue more than any other, and voters are getting a chance to see him be a leader the way Douglas – and by media extension Dubie – refuse to be. The issue also has the effect of pulling some of the oxygen out of the room for the other candidates. The timing was amazing as well, as it all but neutralizes support from some segments of the labor community for VY’s relicensing. As it stood, it was likely that Dems could count on other arms of labor (such as the local AFL-CIO) to more or less be a counterforce to the IBEW support for Yankee, but this scandal blasted its way to the front of the headlines without help from anyone.

Of course, there’s little sign of any kind of campaign operation taking advantage of this attention, so Shumlin’s repeat hot status in mojoland could easily burnout quickly if a campaign infrastructure doesn’t start showing signs of life soon. Good press isn’t worth much without a campaign to sustain it, after all. Still, if Entergy keeps this up, they could well get Shumlin elected.

Now if he would just stop grousing about having to run in a primary. Pllpppt. Get over it.

Doug Racine. Racine shows us how quickly the mojo can rise, jumping 3 spots from last week’s “cold” rating. The Chittenden Senator had a leading role at a legislative health care forum that got headlines, giving him further association with the issue. He also announced a major campaign event that, by its technologically interactive nature, will draw further attention (and he wisely promoted it here at GMD). In fact, if not for the fact that he picked the worst possible time to be AWOL last fall, getting him into a bit of a hole, he’d probably be warm or hot right now. A couple more weeks like this, and he’ll have made up for the lost momentum.

The danger for Racine? He’s held his health care committee position for long enough that primary voters are going to want to see some evidence that he means what he says on the issue and isn’t just engaging in election year posturing. Although he’s tried to inoculate himself from this dynamic by making a point of saying he isn’t necessarily promising immediate policy action, that’s not gonna fly with a lot of people. This is one cake he won’t be able to have and eat too, so he’s going to need to find a way to deliver something this session (and Senate President Pro Tem Shumlin probably isn’t going to be very accommodating in that regard).

Matt Dunne. Hard to tell what’s going on with Matt Dunne, but there is clearly organizing happening that goes beyond the internet as evidenced by reports of supporters showing up at the Windsor County candidate forum last week with Dunne for guv shirts. That sort of thing takes more than a cafepress site.

So Dunne has been working heavily on the internet organizing – including being the only candidate to take full advantage of GMD, as well as use it interactively. He’s got proxies sending emails on his behalf. There seems to be a lot of “there” there, but its hard to tell at this stage with an outside-Montpelier kinda campaign without campaign offices, press releases and finance reports. Given that there’s clear activity and growing buzz, but its not buzz that’s penetrating the insider bubble yet, we’ll give the Google candidate a “lukewarm” to reflect some upward momentum from last week without overstating it. If his push for a high profile presence during MLK day activities works out, he may well bump up another notch for next week.

Deb Markowitz. Markowitz is still cranking out the fundraising emails and demonstrating a campaign heartbeat – but nothing more. We’ll assume that there are things in the works, and that this isn’t just a “rose garden strategy” without a rose garden. On the other hand, she’s advised by some of the same folks who advised Peter Welch to keep as low a profile as possible for as long as possible during his campaign against Martha Rainville, and the only reason that paid off was that the Rainville campaign was one of the most spectacularly incompetent campaigns in Vermont history. In this case, just drifting beyond the fray raising money when the other candidates are getting their hands dirty in the issues will start working against her eventually, if it hasn’t already.

In any event, there was a bit of a news hiccup with those campaign emails. Sending out an email fundraising gimmick pegged to an incorrect value for Vermont’s size was a sloppy mistake, as it broadcast “out of state campaign team” to anyone even paying peripheral attention (and Vermonters get touchy about that). Still, the campaign jiu-jitsued a bit, turning the mockery they received from the national Republicans on the issue into a Republicans must fear us email message.

Nicely played, so we’ll split the difference and leave them at “luke warm” for an active campaign fundraising pulse – but not much else.

Susan Bartlett. Nothing of note to change Bartlett one way or the other from last week, so there’s not a lot of reason to move her. She is engaging with us here online at the GMD community in a way that opponents Shumlin and Markowitz aren’t, so that means something around these parts. Also, people continue to be impressed with her at campaign forums.

So what the heck, let’s bump her up from “chilly” to “neutral.” It’s MLK day.



Brian Dubie. Dubie’s campaign dynamics shift a bit, as Totten reports that Skip Vallee will not be challenging him for the GOP nomination. That’s a plus. On the other hand, Vermont Yankee’s significant troubles bode ill for him as a VY supporter, despite his attempts to inoculate himself (which won’t amount to much if he just follows Douglas’s lead). Then there’s the other issue that’s lurking around the Statehouse with the potential to dog him – abortion.

But then, he did hire a campaign manager (with what money, one wonders). That’s a big plus. On the other hand, there is some national GOP baggage that comes with the new hire from Virginia.

But losing a potential challenger and gaining a staff both equate for a net plus… just not a very big one, given the minuses. We’ll creep Dubie up a notch and give him a “neutral.”

So I must be feeling all peace and love-ish for the holiday. Nobody’s in the cold zone this week. Don’t count on that happening very often.

2 thoughts on “Gubernatorial Mojometers, Week 2

  1. consider how (if at all) the candidates line up on economic development

    I know I know, it’s a wonky insider thing; but standing with the Governor on BS like raising the VEPC annual cap by $15m is terribly disappointing; and for those (like Dunne) who take an easy road and criticize VY, where are they on really tough issues that require standing up to the Chamber?

    the Leg. is (seemingly) incapable of deviating from the Trickle Down model; which candidate will offer a new vision?

    please! someone; just call the question…

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