So, waddayaknow? Now Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie does sound like a candidate – this despite the near universal hubbub that said he wasn’t going to run.

Part of that conventional wisdom was always, in my view, flawed. The idea that if he were serious he would have jumped on it quickly may be an axiom that applies to most politicians, but ignores the fact that this is Brian Dubie we’re talking about. Brian Dubie does not do politics quickly. In fact, his same-day statement that he was considering it probably qualifies as a lightning speed political response on the Dubie scale.

But the hubbub was deeper and broader than that, so it does seem likely that the GOP rank-and-file groundswell on the Lieutenant Governor’s behalf may actually be swaying him – and Hallenbeck (at the only political blog, professional media or otherwise, that still refuses to link to anybody else’s sites) indicates that Dubie’s final decision is to be put off at least another week.

But it’s also likely that the hubub is being generated somewhat by those who want it to be true – and mutterings suggest they may well be some of the same folks who have also encouraged Tom Salmon to switch parties and make noises about the top spot himself. There are a lot of GOP or GOP-oriented movers and shakers who have little confidence in Brian Dubie to withstand the rigors of a full-on gubernatorial campaign, and I – for one – can see why they’d be concerned.

The fact is that Dubie’s continuing hesitation on making a final decision against the increasing pressure to make one as quickly as possible both underscores and exacerbates the fault lines in the Republican Party, and the longer he puts off an announcement, the more those tensions are likely to rise.

On the other side, Matt Dunne is sounding more and more likely to enter a race for Governor. After failing to oust Brian Dubie from the number 2 spot two cycles back, Dunne would need to make a big splash quickly after announcing – probably by raising a lot of money – to be seen as competitive given that the race (and the fundraising) is already underway. But the fact is that Dunne is perfectly capable of doing that, and in a Democratic Primary setting, he is not to be underestimated (just ask John Tracy).

Dems tend to fall into one of two categories regarding Dunne; those who really like him a lot, and those who refuse to accept just how many other Dems really like him a lot. If Dunne gets in, he may well jump to that shared leading status in just a few weeks.

The political shakeup means that the next month or so is an opportunity for new faces to jump into races up and down the ticket. For the top spot, the next organic opportunity to jump in and be taken seriously as a major competitor may not be until March, exploiting what is likely to be fatigue over a contentious legislative session. Clearly, though, anyone entering in March would face an uphill fundraising climb, so look for at least one new announcement this fall that will more or less set the battle lines.