UPDATE 3 – Tuesday: WCAX, which is as well-connected to the Vermont Republican party as any corporation, reports that “Republican sources have confirmed for WCAX News” that Tom Salmon is joining the Republican party and that he will run for reelection. Statement by Vermont Democratic State Committee below the fold.
(UPDATE 2 – Monday Tuesday (woops): Since its Salmon jump day, I thought I’d bump Julie’s diary from Friday back up top. Totten is less skeptical today, and even has a copy of Salmon’s letter to supporters on the matter (yeah, apparently he still has a couple. Who knew?). Word is that Mr. Auditor’s Democratic re-election consultant team of Burlington Democratic Chair Jake Perkinson and former Peter Welch Staffer Selene Hofer-Shall will be severing ties. — odum)
(UPDATE – Saturday: In terms of professional media picking this up, Hallenbeck echoes what we’ve been hearing, while Totten is skeptical that Tuesday’s announcement will be substantive. – odum)
We’ve got two fairly reliable sources contributing to the following rumors:
- Salmon will be switching parties on Tuesday, September 8th;
- Salmon will still be running for auditor unless Dubie chooses not to run for Governor, in which case Salmon will run for governor instead.
We’ve also heard that someone named Lenny Britton (from South Pomfret), who owns a lumberyard in Windsor County, is talking about running for Senate in 2010.
Remember. You heard it here first. Or second. Or whenever. But, unlike some websites, we’re not going to sit here and pretend after the fact that we knew it was coming but chose not to post about it.
What does any of this mean? I suspect that in Salmon’s case, it merely suggests that he’s returning to his natural spawning grounds. For those of you who weren’t paying attention to the auditor’s race in 2006, he basically didn’t bother running much of a campaign at all, and merely squeaked in over a fairly unimpressive and (as I’ve noted before), smarmy opponent. If he runs as a Republican, I think we’ve got a good chance at beating him just by showing up and actually trying to get someone elected, as opposed to slouching our way into office.
I’d write more, but I think my metaphors are a bit fishy today. It’s best I clam up now.
Statement by the Vermont Democratic Party regarding Auditor Tom Salmon’s Announcement
We are disappointed by Auditor Tom Salmon’s decision to switch to the Republican Party. Auditor Salmon and his family have a long and storied history with the Democratic Party in this state and have enjoyed a great deal of electoral success with the help and support of the party and our dedicated activists.
As shown during this past budget battle and again in his statement today, it is clear that the Auditor identifies himself with Republican Governor Jim Douglas and the “Party of No-New Ideas.”
We will field an exciting slate of well qualified Democratic candidates for every statewide office in 2010. We are confident they will be successful and continue to do great work on behalf of the people of Vermont.
Salmon rots from the head down.
Why become a Republican? Can’t cut it as an Independent?
So the Republican fix is in! Salmon flops over in the frying pan. Douglas is gone. Dubie will fly away from both top dog and next-in-line. So Salmon and Brock shake on a deal as to who will run for which office. The Rs will coast along with no primary and have plenty of money for the big show. Interesting??!!
It isn’t as if we won his election with crossover Republican votes .
Was Salmon courted by the Republicans or is this flirtation all his own maverickey initiative ?
Salmon as a Republican Lt. Gov or Gov candidate merits more serious consideration. Look at his positives: veteran with recent deployment (picks up the Rainville voters); name recognition; “edgy” thinking/proposals (appeals to the teabagger crowd and maybe working class folks who are seeing their property taxes go up for schools and blaming it on the legislature); reputation as a fiscal conservative, political moderate (keeps the Democrats for Douglas in play instead of letting them melt back into the Democratic mainstream).
The big problem for the so-far announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates is the legislature (although Markowitz gets a pass on that one). A school board member was telling me last night that his town passed a school budget with a 2.7 percent increase (achieved in part by laying off 3 teachers), but property taxes had gone up 12 percent. He didn’t actually say that his neighbors were headed for his house with torches and pitchforks, but it’s not a long step to get there.
As I understand it — and I hate budgets of all kinds — the Governor has for the last 3 years insisted on keeping the state per-student grant to towns level funded. In reality, the intent of Act 60 and other measures was to let the grant rise with the cost of living equally for all towns. But that’s not happening (Thanks, Jim). Any increases in fixed costs — gasoline, heating fuel, insurance premiums, paper goods — are met through each town directly assessing its school district property owners. It would’ve been worse if the legislature had not overriden the Governor’s veto on the budget, but it’s bad enough.
And somewhere in there is the “Common Level of Appraisal.” I thought that generally, when the appraised value of a property goes up, the rate of taxation usually goes down, so you get at most a modest increase in revenue realizable from the Grand List; 12 percent is not a modest increase.
But I digress … Salmon is likely to have appeal to moderate and conservative Democrats, especially those who don’t like what the legislature did with the budget, and those already inclined to vote for Douglas (and if you look at the Obama/Douglas vote in the last election, there are a lot more of them than we’d prefer to see). Racine & Bartlett and any other legislators looking to step up have some explaining to do with regard to fiscal realities and school taxes.
NanuqFC
The American people are quite competent to judge a political party that works both sides of the street. ~ Franklin Delano Roosevelt
The Burlington Free Press (Terry Hallenbeck, with help from Nancy Remsen) has this item in its Saturday morning print edition today, a mere five days after GMD’s first post on the story.
There’s more, but it’s mostly blah blah from the R’s about welcoming him, and Shumlin explaining that just because Salmon feels uncomfortable with his party doesn’t mean he needs to switch – every Democrat is at times uncomfortable with his/her party!
NanuqFC
I’m not a member of any organized political party, I’m a Democrat! ~ Will Rogers
Yeah, he’s swimming, but it’s a first in history – a rat swimming toward a sinking ship.