A quick trip by the SoS office after work, and I’ve got my reading for the evening. Clearly, there’ll be a need to dig in with a fine toothed comb (as will the many other media types – legacy and new – who were on hand), but I know folks are hoping to get some of the basics ASAP, so here we go.
Markowitz is reporting a total of $190,736.83. With $5745 of that as in-kind contributions, and reported expenditures of $56,356.31 listed, that leaves a cash on hand amount of $128,635.52. Her amounts include a rollover from her Secretary of State campaign account of $17,175.83.
Racine is reporting a total of $102,415.69. With $2663.24 of that in-kind, and expenditures of $19,553.35, that leaves a cash on hand amount of $80,199.10. $844.45 was rolled over from his Senate account.
This means that, in terms of money in hand, Markowitz exceeds Racine by a surprisingly low (relative to expectations) $48,436.42. Good news for Racine, and it means this race is already more competitive than expected.
On the other hand, Racine’s (under $100) contributions come from 314 givers, while Markowitz reports 742. At this point, its the game of lists that in the long run is more important than early cash on hand in a competitive race (which this clearly is). Those contributors can be returned to later, as Markowitz has more names, with a lower average contribution amount, meaning they overall have more to give than Racine’s contributors do at this point. The difference is meaningful.
As far as Douglas goes, he is reporting a bottom line of $104,565.68 – $91,203 of which comes from this reporting period. That’s right – both Markowitz and Racine outraised him in this reporting period. He also reports a whopping $55,675.24 in expenditures, and with no in-kind contributions, that leaves him with $48,890.44 – far less than either Racine or Markowitz.
That’s huge, and marks a sea change that could swamp Douglas. The good news for him is that he’s reporting a whopping 840 small dollar contributors, so that bottom line cash number will grow – but it’s still not good news for the Republican Governor, as far as the inevitability narrative – which has been his most powerful campaign weapon – goes.
Susan Bartlett did not report any fundraising (although there is a $12,009.65 Senate campaign carryover listed, as well as $300 to open an account for an eventual gubernatorial campaign).
As far as Lieutenant Governor goes, nobody filed for that office per se. Flanagan filed for his Senate campaign (and funds can be rolled over from one to the other), but I seem to have already lost my copy on the walk home. If it pops up again, I’ll write up the details.
More interesting is the lack of a filing by House Majority Leader Floyd Nease, who has been openly discussing his interest in the Lite Gov office – even making moves towards formalizing a campaign. Word on the street is that Nease, while not closing the door on a run, is reconsidering in light of competing personal responsibilities and may now be leaning towards staying where he is. While anything can still happen, moving strongly one direction, then leaning back the other way during such an already-lively jockeying for position phase makes it far more likely that he won’t run, given the laws of electoral momentum and inertia.
Anyway, lots to read. I also got my new comics in today, so I’m terrifically conflicted as to what to pick up next. Sure, I wanna know what names of note are supporting which candidate… but on the other hand, Captain America is coming back from the dead this month. Decisions, decisions…
The word “narrative” may be important here.
First, it’s good to outperform your expectations, and it’s bad to underperform them. Suddenly, the narrative is not that Deb has piled up a lot of money, but, as Chris Graff said on WCAX last night:
Second, in another thread Nate pointed out that it’s too early for the candidates to be taking specific positions on the issues, and that is probably true. We saw in 2008, though, that when Hilary Clinton built her campaign on inevitability, once she started losing primaries it became harder to sustain that narrative. It will be interesting to see how this year’s candidates build their narratives, with just a few data points to work with.
Finally, I do want to say that all the leading candidates have a standing invitation to post here and talk directly to our readers. It can only improve the dialogue if they take us up on that.
most of the fund now under way is going to be used to build greater fund raising down the road. This means it’s the choir that’s being sung to by the various candidates and there’s no need to be issue specific yet.
Congratulations goes to Former Lt. Governor Doug Racine on a very impressive showing. To raise over $100,000 in just the few short months since the legislative session is testimate to the strength of your campaign and the incredible record you have assembled as a State Senator, President Pro Tempore and as the Lt.Governor. I really appreciate and I believe Vermonters do as well, that you focused on the critical issues of Marriage Equality, Health Care and the Fiscal Crisis rather than dialing for dollars during the session. As someone who has worked as a fundraiser professionally for nearly 20 years, I really have to say Bravo ! I’m impressed.
Regarding the amount of dollars raised by Democratic candidates exceeding height of his cash level, Vermont Press Bureau reporter Dan Barlow quotes Jim Douglas this morning:
An imaginary political analyst points to Douglas’ limp results in the money charts and utters the famous, bittersweet last line:
“Isn’t it pretty to think so.”
It seems to me that this is a “dog bites man” story. The numbers for Dems reflect logically what most people suspected–at this very early point, geography was the largest factor at play: Markowitz, having held a statewide office for some time, enjoyed more statewide support. Racine, though once LG seemingly long ago, garnered support (I’m guessing) mainly from his home turf of Chittenden County. I’m surprised no one has brought up this simple fact: name recognition.
Anyway, I’d like to see people make hay out of Douglas’s flaccid fundraising performance. I know, he hasn’t announced, yadda-yadda, but it seems to me this is the real story. There is blood in the water…
BD