[UPDATE from mataliandy]: The Markowitz campaign has sent out a press release indicating over $190k raised thus far – placing the campaign into the “psychologically closer together” realm Odum alluded to when he wrote this post if Racine reports at least $100k. One thing to note, however: the amount appears not to include funds raised via Emily’s List, which tends to provide decent chunks of campaign cash. The $190k, though below the psychological borderline, is still an impressive number, especially in that light.

[FURTHER UPDATE]: vtbuzz is reporting that Racine has indeed raised more than $100k.

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So, what to expect?

Obviously, everyone will be looking at the Democratic candidates for governor, but given that the schedule of this top tier race sets the calendar for the other statewide efforts (as we learned to our chagrin last time around), there will likely be other things to see as well. With one announced Lieutenant Governor candidate (Flanagan), one likely candidate (Nease) and scuttlebutt about three potential other candidates (Costello, T.J. Donovan, Tim Palmer), it will be interesting to see if anybody files, as if any are raising money, it has to show up somewhere, either in a new committee or an existing one for current officeholders. The same is true for Secretary of State candidate Charles Merriman and his likely opponent Jim Condos, although I haven’t heard of any significant fundraising yet from either (Merriman has raised $150 from ActBlue).

But what about the gubernatorial primary? Early scuttlebutt (unconfirmed) had Markowitz aiming for a jaw-dropping $250,000. Racine, who only started raising after the session, seemed likely to be heading for an $80,000- $90,000 total. As far as the expectations goal goes, Markowitz doesn’t have to reach such a colossal number to impress (one doesn’t want to set the bar too high for yourself, as Markowitz has been in danger of doing with her financial shock and awe strategy designed to discourage competition). If Markowitz comes in above $200k, jaws will still be dropped – but she’d have to hit that $250k goal to really blow people away.

If Racine surprises and ekes out a 6-figure total this early, he’ll beat the expectation game as well. There’s no question that Markowitz will raise more – that’s a given – so the expectation game for both of them will be how much.  

Racine has been effectively reminding folks that Markowitz has been fundraising far longer, and she is able to tap registered lobbyists, as sitting Senator Racine is legally barred from doing until the gavel falls on the session in 2010. She also made good use of that early time as the only active candidate, which carried a short-term implication of presumed candidate for the purpose of DC area fundraising. All of which was maximized by the high profile support of such big time Vermont Democratic funders as Crea Linthilac, Jane Stetson and Arthur & Anne Berndt.

Then, of course, there’s the Emily’s List factor. It will be interesting to see how much of Markowitz’s money is coming from out of state, as a large percentage would suggest that EL is kicking in for her as promised. EL reportedly has the goal of powering her to a $2 million campaign overall, suggesting they are hoping to send between 1 and 1.25 million her way between now and election day 2010.

So this stuff is out there, affecting expectations. Markowitz will wow in sheer amounts in the short term. What would not be the greatest scenario for her on that front is if Racine squeaks into 6 figures and she comes in below $200k. That will psychologically put them closer together than she would likely prefer, but it’s not likely to play out that way.

At the moment, Markowitz has raised $56,443 from 263 contributors on ActBlue alone, while Racine has been closing that gap slowly but surely and is up to $28,850 from 136 contributors.

As far as candidate Susan Bartlett goes, she was a bit stuck between a rock and a hard place. Without an early announcement, she ran the risk of ceding the “woman candidate” designation to Markowitz – but neither was she ready to begin a campaign herself yet. So she is stuck in the difficult position of being an announced candidate who will not want to have raised or spent enough to file, only to have that filing look puny by comparison to the two financial juggernauts who are up and running. Best for her to simply say she hasn’t started yet. Still, with her intentions formalized, the clock is ticking. In a better position is Shumlin who, if he does run, will be able to swoop in and christen a “phase two” of the primary saga, and will be given a honeymoon period by the press and public to get something going. Bartlett will be able to ride along with that phase two narrative as well if she handles it right.

So, we’ll see what turns up (and if the Republican State Committee filing affords any clues as to who has been doing their robocalling for them…)

A caveat to all this is the dearth of political analysis I referred to in a diary a couple posts down the front page. If the media conversation stays too dumbed down, none of the early buzz and hubbub, or circumstances of timing and particularized support will matter, and the whole thing gets reduced to a simplistic level. This would be the best possible situation for Markowitz, as it wouldn’t matter how well anybody else is doing – all that will matter for the media narrative will be that she is on top – big.

Although it will be a lot less fun for those of us who are political junkies and like to look behind the numbers, its far from an unlikely scenario come Thursday. And at the end of the day, politics are about perception – which more often than not, becomes reality, no matter what more nuanced political forces may or may not be in play.