Louis Porter had a pair of analysis pieces in Sunday’s Herald & Argus, looking at the veto override and the legislative session in one piece, and the state of affairs in the still-young governor’s race on the other. They’re fine pieces, but while he discusses the impact on the session and the overrides on the gubernatorial election generally, he doesn’t examine what it might mean for the primary itself.

The obvious thing that jumps out at first is that it complicates things in the short term for Markowitz, and gives the candidates from the legislature a boost – particularly Shumlin (if he, as many expect, jumps in the ring) as the face of a Democratic caucus newly victorious and riding high on a wave of popularity in the Democratic crowd like none in recent memory. In fact, if it were Speaker Smith running, its likely that the others would be wasting their time.

Markowitz is in a bit trickier position than she otherwise would be, though, all things being equal. Why? The following rhetoric from a campaign email (dated the Sunday before the override session) is typical:

As I criss-crossed the state people voiced their concern about the budget stand-off between the Governor and legislature.  Vermonters know that these are challenging times for the state and that some combination of spending cuts and tax increases will be required to balance the state budget.

Instead of gamesmanship, Vermonters want real leadership in Montpelier.   They want the Governor and legislative leaders to have an honest dialogue and work out their differences.  The budget is not a political football to pass back and forth – we are talking about the lives of ordinary Vermonters and the future of our state.

Although the bulk of the email focuses on Governor Douglas, this is another case where Markowitz has been positioning herself to run against the Governor and the legislature (trying to grab the grownup-among-the-children meme that Auditor Salmon has also been trying – and failing – to capture) – and I’ve already heard from legislators who are feeling a bit pissed off about it. Truth is, a matter of mere months ago this probably made for a savvy approach, strategically speaking. In light of current events (specifically the real leadership that has been shown by legislative Democrats) this might seem to come off as a bit out-of-touch (or worse) to primary voters, who are unaccustomed to feeling so proud of – and empowered by – their state Representatives and Senators (it also, frankly, isn’t going to win her a lot of friends in the legislature, with whom she has had some friction)

It’s an awkward thing to simply turn off, though, as Markowitz has been generally churning out a stream of Obama-esque rhetoric, trying to capture the political zeitgeist in this overwhelmingly Obama-friendly state, and position herself as above “politics-as-usual” and the catalyst for a better political age. This sort of rhetoric kind of comes with that territory, at least to an extent.

Granted, she hasn’t been entirely consistent – her unmistakable attack on primary opponent Doug Racine goes contrary to such a hope-‘n-change campaign, for one thing. Obama did not run straight at his opponents until relatively late in the game – nor did he propose specifics on policy until he felt he had to, and the absence of a policy portfolio is a frequent criticism of Markowitz.

But it’s early yet. Missteps can be made and mixed messages can be sent, especially when you’re raising more money than god, as Markowitz seems to be doing (expect to see an eye-popping total in the first upcoming reporting deadline – somewhere in the neighborhood of two-hundred grand, while no one else will break into six figures). The key to the Obama campaign’s success, after all, was not its campaign style or message – which ran thin late in the primary – it was the campaign’s deftness, discipline and adaptability. When the “above it all” meme wasn’t working so well anymore, Obama hit and hit hard – all the while deftly maintaining his hope-and-changiness. And when his election was all but a done deal, he went back. It was something to watch.

Markowitz isn’t showing the discipline yet (comments she’s made about other candidates that she really shouldn’t be making continue to trickle to my ears – nothing outrageous, just… impolitic… given the amount of ears – even supportive ones – that could gossip) or the deftness (clumsy, clumsy, clumsy with the dismissal of Racine’s overtures to the Progressives) – but this, then, is yet another reason why a primary will be a good thing. “Lesser” statewide incumbents have a tendency to believe they know all they need to know to run a race for Governor because – after all – they’ve already won statewide races themselves and have it all figured out. The truth is they have no idea what they’re really in for.

If Markowitz does win next year’s primary, she will do so having worked these kinks out and refining her message and campaign plan, as well as learning adaptablility as a matter of simple necessity.

Not to spend all our time on Markowitz (given that – wonder of wonders – her’s is no longer the only active campaign! Thank god…. somebody else to pick on as well!). Doug Racine has been busy shoring up the base since the end of the session. Consider the latest press release from the Racine campaign:

Friday June 5, 2009 Burlington VT:  

Sen. Doug Racine called on Governor Douglas today to extend the deadline for proposed layoffs and work with state employees to explore options for avoiding layoffs proposed by the Governor.  

“In these times, we should do everything we can to keep Vermonters working” said Racine “No Vermonter should be laid off before every option is fully explored.  There are still options available to avoid layoffs and achieve the saving required by the Legislature.  These include mediation between the Administration and the VSEA and the retirement incentive recently enacted by the Legislature.  It is reasonable to delay any layoffs until it is clear that they are unavoidable. We’re not there yet.”

Racine is coming off his high profile overture to the Progressives, and last week was once again spotted in a Montpelier coffee shop chatting it up – not just with Pollina, but with Progressive Representative David Zuckerman. Racine – who has strong relationships in the business community in Chittenden County – is clearly looking first to shore up support among the left and the traditional Democratic constituencies like labor.

And yes, that includes the netroots. Racine sends GMD press releases, for example, while Markowitz does not. It will be telling to see if we end up on Bartlett’s and Shumlin’s list.

In Racine’s case, the question that will be asked clearly will be whether or not he will position himself too far to the left, or if that’s even a meaningful concern (I can’t see it myself, Racine’s well within the mainstream and is not a doctrinaire lefty). Racine has a policy record that Markowitz does not, which comes with strong advantages and disadvantages – although there’s no question that given the high regard the Dem primary voters currently hold this legislature in, that – for the moment – is far more of an advantage. It should never be forgotten, however, just how fickle and quick-tempered the Democratic base can be with their caucus.

In fact, the most interesting thing about the Racine press release is not what it says, but who sent it. Surprisingly little attention is being paid to the fact that Representative Mark Larson – part of the very leadership team that delivered the House veto override – is working for the Racine campaign. Truth to tell, that’s a jaw-dropper. Larson is a very big fish to be working on a campaign payroll, and the former candidate for House Speaker’s presence comes with an undeniable level of implied (if not concrete) legislative support.

The flip side to that, however, is the trickle-out way this bombshell was offered to the public. What should have been fodder for the headlines was instead eked out, buried well into Shay Totten’s column in Seven Days. The lack of media savvy and management in that missed opportunity shows that Racine, too, has a lot to learn yet in order to bring his burgeoning campaign up to where it needs to be to win folks over.

Good thing we have the crucible of a primary to get whoever the winner is into fighting trim, eh? I do love the smell of democracy in the morning.

Looking forward to the next few weeks when we see what candidate Susan Bartlett and presumed candidate Pete Shumlin lead off with.

This is all going to be so much more fun than last time.