Our governor has suffered two veto over-rides in the last couple of months. What does this bode for his political future?
Don’t count Jim out yet. Smily-faced obstructionism is the new (old) GOP strategery for the 2012 presidential cycle. Pawlenty from MN and Douglas from VT are well positioned for the 2012 GOP nomination with their smarmy, school-marmish Church Lady personas.
The GOP might try to rally ’round the rebel rag one more time and put the Wasillabilly forward, but the GOP is going to find, much like the Democrats did when for 48 years the only Dem presidents that could be elected were from Dixie, that the only pols with a ghost of a chance that their party can put forward will have to be from the Nawth. And even if Sarah does get the nomination, the ticket will have to be “balanced” (I know, hard to “balance” a ticket when one of your candidates is imbalanced) with a bonafide Yankee.
Pawlenty is stepping down at the end of his term. He is dragging his feet on seating Franken, knowing that the big GOP donors will pay him off for keeping the Dem Senate majority under 60.
His slow-walking Franken is burning his bridges in MN, perhaps, but not nationally. For one, he’s got the fact that he was elected in a fairly blue state on his side. Unlike Romney, who also can make the same claim to fame, he’s not seen as particularly slick/slimy, even if he is.
The same with our governor. There’s nothing slick about Douglas (but what he lacks in slickness he makes up for in mendacity and unctuousness).
This may not be a good year for Douglas in VT, but it could be a great year for him nationally. The vetoes might not play so well for him here, but they’ll play better in Peoria, and great in the red states and red areas. He’s now on the record strong for gay-bashing and gutting government services, bloody shirts for the increasingly Southron GOP base.
And, perversely, he has the Vermont brand working for him, too. He can’t be all bad if those crazy folk in VT elected him 4 times. He must be a nice guy. (Isn’t that special?)
The folks in the rest of the country aren’t going to understand the Dem/Prog circular firing squads that have kept the governor’s office GOP. One of the unintended consequences of the progressive (note – small “p”) infighting and squabbling could be Douglas on the 2012 presidential or VP ballot. (America says “gee, thanks”.)
Douglas has assembled a big PR team. That team is way too big to keep just for VT. I think a big incentive for him to run in 2010 is to keep the team on the public teat for a national run, and, if the Progs and Dems get the circular firing squad together again, it will make it a done deal.
I don’t see any basis for thinking that Douglas has a future on the national stage. He could snag an Ambassadorship; at the very best, he might get a minor Cabinet post. But
Even though Douglas has tacked right this year, he’s nowhere near pure enough for the national Republican electorate. He’s spent too much time presenting himself as a moderate. He backed the Obama stimulus. And he failed to block same-sex marriage; he vetoed it, but he lost the override after conducting a (seemingly) low-energy campaign to block override. And even though his folksy, low-key charm has played well in Vermont, he’s not dynamic enough to play in the big leagues.
Aside from Douglas’ own appeal (or lack thereof), the national GOP can’t have a very good opinion about Vermont in general: it’s the Socialist, tree-hugging, Glad-to-be-Gay state. I see absolutely no chance that the Republican base — and more importantly, Republican moneybags who can fuel a national campaign — would get behind Douglas at all. And I don’t see that he brings anything substantial as a Vice-Presidential nominee either.
He did definitely veto two bills, but the energy bill he didn’t even try to veto. He backed off from that fight before it even begun.
That may end up being one of the best outcomes of this: him showing himself to be a coward and a bully, unable to stand up against his opponents in a fair fight, only being willing to battle when he thinks he’s got the opportunity to cheat.