Veto override dynamics now, and into next year

Rep. David Zuckerman summed up the prospect of an override on the Governor’s inevitable veto of the recently passed budget (one which, as a political progressive, I would give a C to at best). From the Freeps:

“I voted no because I didn’t like this budget,” he said, noting that one of his objections was an $18 million reduction in the transfer of general tax dollars to the Education Fund. “But I’m fairly certain all the Progressives will vote yes to override because the alternative is an even greater property tax shift.”

The Progressive caucus was not uniform on this vote. It’s always worth noting when the Prog caucus is not uniform on anything this significant, but in this case it underscores the developing context to this budget; as a standalone piece of legislation, its a major let-down. If, though, it provokes a veto that is then overridden, it comes off looking like a perfect balancing act between what lefties might prefer, versus what we could expect to realistically get.

The veto stakes, then, are higher than usual. The momentum for a real power shift in Montpelier is on a precipice, and this override vote will determine whether or not we’re still basically at status quo, or whether there’s a new sheriff in town after all. And the prospects look good, just not great.

A second override of a gubernatorial veto would be huge. First because, up to this session, Douglas hasn’t been overridden once. Second, this wouldn’t be any veto – its the freakin budget – the grandaddy of all veto override votes. And third, coupled with the forward-thinking vote of conscience and leadership that the marriage equality override vote was, the two will couple into a narrative of vision, ethics, pragmatism and power that will have ripple effects into the next election season.

Moderate “democrats” of the Frank Cioffi set (who have not, as Cioffi has, essentially sold their souls in a reputation-restricting manner to Jim Douglas republicans) will organically reconsider their alliance with the Governor, as their confidence in his politically supremacy will loosen. Some may come back.

Also, some constituency organizations and activists who work with the Dem leadership during the session but seem to hardly be able to wait to throw them over for untested politicians or token Republicans will see a newly relevant legislature as newly relevant to their own interests.

Both these dynamics have not insignificant electoral overtones.

And both could be undone by whatever happens between any successful override vote and the end of next year’s session. If successful (and we’ll all have to work hard to make that happen), lawmakers would be well advised not to read their success as a mandate to go further to the economic right, as I suspect some powerful legislators would like to see happen. In fact, it would be a golden opportunity for the usual lefty suspects in the Senate as well as the House to cobble together some sort of little-p progressive sub-caucus, like the one on Capitol Hill.

After all, bargaining collectively is a good and powerful thing everywhere else, no? And can you think of a better way to start building more bridges between the Progs and the Democratic left?

18 thoughts on “Veto override dynamics now, and into next year

  1. There’s potentially 102 override votes if the dems, progs, and indys caucus together, but that’s a big “if”. Anyone know if there are any potential repubs that could be peeled off?

  2. That Frank Cioffi (founder and mainstay of Democrats for Douglas) publicly and privately opposed the Governor on his veto of the marriage equality bill. I called him to ask him to make his opinion clear to a couple of Franklin County House members — left a message. He returned the call, agreed to make the calls, and left a lovely, supportive, encouraging message on my answering machine.

    He also hosted a campaign event for Peter Welch, Sen. Sara Kittell, and local Democratic House candidates in his famous Barn at the top of Congress St. in St. Albans last fall.

    Do I think he’s misguided on his support of the current Governor? Absolutely.

    Does he come through as a Democrat on other candidates and some issues? Yes.

    Could he do more? Sure.

    It’s part of what makes politics fascinating and frustrating all at once.

    NanuqFC

    Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion. ~ Edmund Burke (1774)  

  3. Remember when we said we could never get enough votes to override the gay marriage veto? Well, we did. I think its possible and I think there may be a few republicans who don’t want to drag out a painful summer session and might vote to override just to get it done even if they don’t agree with everything.  

  4. I just received this email. 18% of Vermonters smoke, although I’m sure they’re not all on Phillip Morris’ email list, but still, that tax is going to affect a lot of people’s opinion about this budget.

    ************************

    HIGHER TAXES AHEAD – SUPPORT THE GOVERNOR’S VETO!

    The Vermont Legislature proposed and passed a budget that includes a number of new and increased taxes – totaling tens of millions of dollars – that will further burden consumers.  Among the proposed increases is a $0.25 per pack increase in the state cigarette excise tax along with a significant increase in other tobacco products.  If passed, adult smokers in Vermont would pay $2.24 per pack in state excise taxes – in addition to the recently increased Federal Excise Tax, this would mean $3.25 per pack in state and federal excise taxes alone!

    Governor Douglas has promised to veto any budget that unfairly targets consumers with new and increased taxes.  Please email Governor Douglas today and tell him you support his veto of the proposed budget.  It’s just not right to raise taxes on consumers, tell him we just can’t afford it in these tough economic times!

    Please click here to send Governor Douglas an email supporting his decision to veto this budget.

    Paid for by Altria Client Services on behalf of Philip Morris USA

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