Ever since the veto override, and Jim Douglas’ rather mumbly reaction to it, I’ve been thinking that this may prove to be a watershed moment — not just for equal rights, but for the politics of Vermont. I’ve talked to, and read comments by, people who speculate on how the override may have been exactly what Jim Douglas wanted: that he planned it all out this way.

And I couldn’t disagree more. I see this as a huge defeat for Douglas, from start to finish. And I think we’ll look back on it as the beginning of the end of his time in the corner office.  

As I see it, Douglas failed to chart a clear course on the issue. As a result, he satisfied nobody and made some fresh enemies. First, when the legislative leadership pursued the issue, he made purely tactical arguments against it: too much of a distraction, civil unions are good enough. He never made a moral, legal, or even political case on the issue itself. If he had laid out an argument on the merits (whether we would have agreed or not), he might have persuaded some undecideds. At least he would have appeared to be taking a stand on principle.

Then, when legislative passage was a sure thing, he suddenly announced he would veto. This pissed off a lot of lawmakers  because traditionally, Governors don’t announce vetoes while a bill is before the Legislature. Also, his announcement invalidated his central argument — the issue is a distraction — because all he did was ensure that it became even more of a distraction. If he’d made a previous stand on principle, a veto would have been the logical course.

Then, after his veto, he did nothing to jawbone undecided legislators. He said he was allowing people to vote their own consciences; but he was also unilaterally disarming himself. That’s bad politics. If he’d lobbied within his party, couldn’t he have turned a single vote?

Instead, he was saddled with Vermont’s first veto override in 19 years. It shattered the image of Douglas the Unbeatable Politician. It had to leave the Dem/Prog majority feeling their oats.

There are two arguments for Douglas-as-Yoda, wizarding his way through this issue. One: He wanted it to become law because he didn’t want it to be a campaign issue in 2010 with an outraged, unified Left opposing his re-election. Well, isn’t the Left more unified anyway? And didn’t he spark plenty of outrage, between his untimely veto announcement and the veto itself? Won’t all marriage-equality supporters be bound and determined to get him out of office?

Two: He was maneuvering for the support of the national GOP — either for a run at Leahy or Welch, or for maybe a job as Michael Steele’s right-hand man or (heh) replacement.  Big problem there: the hard right has long memories and very high standards of purity. They will see Douglas not as the man who tried to stop same-sex marriage, but the man who let it happen on his watch. Also, with all the challenges the Republican Party will face in 2010, do you really think they’re going to spend money in Vermont? On a longshot like defeating Leahy or Welch? I just don’t see it.

The only way I can interpret Douglas’ course on marriage equality is that he’s just plain getting tired. He may or may not be planning to step down next year, but he’s certainly lost his edge. For the first time in his long tenure as Governor, he’s let the Left outmaneuver him.